Does anyone here follow CapXX; seems very undervalued to me; results are out soon.
Folio
Can you give us a bit more to go on? What does it do? Why is it undervalued, in your view? Who are the comparables? There's a lot of knowledgeable posters here but single line threads tend to get pretty short shrift for reasons explained in more detail here: http://www.stockopedia.com/content/my-first-post-on-stockopedia-45831/?comment=4#4
Incidentally, it looks like the final results are already out: http://www.stockopedia.com/shares/cap-xx-LON:CPX/news/rns/101008cpx000615.htm/
MrT
Firstly; thanks for the advice; I read the Link, am new and will certainly make a contribution to news.
The potential for supercapacitors is very significant but has been missed by most investors. Supercaps are the most efficient method of energy storage if you want short storage times and bursts of current. Battery technology is critical for mobile devices and Electric Vehicles but the technology is underperforming. Combinations of supercapacitors and batteries present the optimal solution.
http://www.batteryuniversity.com/partone-8.htm
The murata deal will give CapXX economies of scale
Last investment round was at 33p; trades currently at 21.5
I think its undervalued. What do you think?
Folio
Ok, thanks for that. I can't really comment as I know very little about the clean energy sector. I like my energy sources to be a little more carbon-based, shall we say. Taking a very superficial glance, the market cap is £14.6m and they have cash on the balance sheet of ASU$4.1m. What's the debt position? Seems negligible but I couldn't really tell as the bulk of current liabilities seems to be "other". In any case, while they are making AUS$7.8m in revenue, they made a net loss in the year to June of $3.1m so one can't really look at comparable P/E and EV/EBIT multiples versus other players in the sector but then that's not likely to be a sensible way to value a business like this anyway.
With a business like this, I assume they will either go bust pursuing an ever-receding dream or they will seriously commercialise their technology, in which case they could be worth a fortune. The only way I can see to assess them is to build a detailed cashflow model based on the potential rewards from the market opportunity and the costs required to get to get there. One could then back out the implied probability of success based on the current market cap and decide whether that seems way too low or not.
I am sure your reasoning is more complex than you elucidated but I certainly don't think it's as simple as saying it's a good technology, the last round was 33p, it's now at 21.5p, so it looks cheap. There have been plenty of early stage businesses with promising technology and serious backers that have failed to deliver or been outflanked, gone bust and are now worth nothing.
Best of luck with it and happy to be persuaded that I have missed the point here as I don't know much about the clean sector at all. DYOR of course.
MrT
Thank you for such a considered response; my view is simple and not dissimilar to yours; its either a going sideways technology company or howlingly undervalued.
The reason that I am rapidly coming to the latter conclusion is the partner Murata. Supercapacitors are a 'newish' emerging component and with the sought of DD that Japanese companies do I feel that a product lauch containing the CapXX technology is a good endorsement.
Thanks for your input.
Folio
How strong is CAP-X'X's moat? Do they have competitors & if so, how does the competition stack up?
Cheers,
Mark
