Combining Economic Data and Price Volume Analysis to Forecast Market Returns

8th Mar '19 by Jack Corsellis

8 comments 1636 reads

Fellow Subscribers,

In this blog post I will be using real GDP data combined with technical analysis (mainly price and volume) to help forecast my prediction for the S&P500. Specifically, I will be using Wyckoff Analysis to help determine the course of future events now the index is in a clearly defined trading range.

It would be useful if you had at least a basic understanding of how the Wyckoff method works for determining price cycles and trading ranges. I have several YouTube videos helping to explain this https://www.youtube.com/user/jcorsellis1. However, the basic premise for the Wyckoff method is that prices, both stocks and indexes, move in 4 cycles then repeat:

Phase 1: Accumulation
Phase 2: Markup
Phase 3: Distribution
Phase 4: Markdown

I will start by analysing two charts - 1) S&P500 Weekly Chart (SPY ETF) from 2016 to present day; and 2) S&P500 Monthly Chart (SPY ETF) from 2009 to present day. Following this I'll use the US real GDP YoY and look at US real GDP forecast. I have used this chart from Hedgeye Risk Management, so it is not my own; I would recommend subscribing to their services.

First chart S&P500 (SPY ETF) Weekly Chart from 2016 - 7 March 2019:

What does this chart show us?

From the low point in 2016 (7 February) to the high point in 2019 (16 September) the S&P500 advanced circa 60%. This is an average monthly gain of 1.4%, significantly above historical averages of circa 0.75% per month.
Using Wyckoff analysis we can identify a Wyckoff trend channel and establish overbought and oversold areas. Such as the overbought area in Janaury 2018 which was followed by a sharp market decline.
Using wyckoff we can also identify the end of a trending environment and when a trading range has been established. Further, we can then apply Wyckoff principles and economic data to determine whether the trading range is likely to be a distribution phase (followed by a markdown) or an accumulation phase (followed by a markup). The Index is currently in a trading range, which will be discussed in more detail later.
Following the end of the trending environment the Index has now moved into a trading range. Using Wyckoff analysis we can label key areas such as; BCLX (buying climax), AR (automatic reaction), ST (secondary test) and UT (upthrust) - so far.
The Index is now at a key resistance point at…

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Jack Corsellis

8th Mar '19

Further to this post, if the US economy starts struggling it has a knock on effect on global growth. There are numerous charts showing the correlation between the ISM (US) and US GDP & global GDP. Even if you do not invest in the US and are mainly UK focused the implications of a continuing slowing of US GDP will no doubt effect UK equity valuations. Also to add Hedgeye (don't worry I'm Stockopedia loyal) are forecasting the UK to enter back to back Quad 4 periods in their macro model later this year. Basically, Quad 4 is the worst Quad to be in and the UK might fall into a recession later this year. In short, 2019 doesn't look good for the US or UK... be careful out there.

donald pond

9th Mar '19

Great post that sums up my thinking. I am huge fans of Hedgeye and Dalio, though know less about Wycoff so something to look into there. It is worth saying that Hedgeye called the top of the market very well last Autumn but missed the recent pullback. That is not to criticise them, just to make the obvious point that it makes an even better entry point for anyone looking to sell the US market.
Off topic, increasingly, I find UK investors are preferring the US market: the liquidity, ease of trading and minimal spreads mean that it is a much more attractive proposition. Too many AIM stocks won't let you trade easily and reliably in small lots of even say £10k. And with the demise of MoneyAM, one of the best sources of free realtime pricing has gone. The LSE really needs to improve its service or customers will vote with their feet imo.

mmarkkj777

10th Mar '19

Agree. A really good post, with a lot of work having gone into it. Thanks Jack.

I'm about 25% invested in the US, so very interested in US share and the outlook for the UK market.

I have recently sold my 2 largest holdings in the US, which were longer term buy and hold positions (Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon) and am now trying to concentrate on good companies with positive momentum. I may buy back in to Amazon at some future point, as I think it can get back to its peak of last summer. For the next 2 months I wish to concentrate on a smaller number of positions that have strong momentum.

I think also India has great potential for the economy over the next few years, but I only hold via Funds at the moment.

Agree with Donald, some Aim stocks are difficult to get good price information on, and are sometimes difficult to trade (especially sell). Strangely I have more success selling less liquid stocks via moving my stop right up, rather than selecting to sell normally. Need better realtime info. If anybody knows a good source, please advise.

Hi Mark & Donald, thanks for the feedback.

I too am finding it increasingly easier to trade US stocks as opposed to UK stocks.

On the real time info Mark I use Interactive Investor and because of my trading frequency have access to Quotestream which provides real time data for LSE (UK) stocks and 15 minute delayed data for US stocks. I actually sent them (Quotestream) an email on Friday to ask the additional cost of having the US real time data. They came back and said it would be about $50 per month to have all the major US exchanges. If you just wanted UK real time datat perhaps try Interactive Investor as your broker? If you don't trade 6 times a month or something I think it's about £15 per month for Quotestream (UK). I've never had problems with them.

That's helpful to know JC.
I've looked at your youtube channel and it is very useful indeed, and I would really recommend people check it out. I've only recently started investing in the US and IG are adequate for what I need, but I think the LSE and the MMs need to be very careful that they don't end up driving investors away through expensive data, wide spreads and a lack of liquidity. But I will also look at Interactive, thanks!
BTW, if there are any regular pundits on the US market that you are aware of please let me know: I currently follow Ciovacco, Hedgeye and Shadowtrader but I am sure there must be others. What I want is more of what you provide on your channel: decent setups that merit further investigation.

Hi Donald,

Appreciate the support, thank you. I like Rauol Paul of Real Vision, they do some good YouTube videos more focused on global macro.

I'm going to increase my output so hopefully that'll give you many more trading ideas. Mark Minervini sometimes post his open positions. Last week he tweeted he was long £CASY.

I saw he was long on CRON at some point last week and I jumped on that for a quick few points before it hit my stop. Rauol Pal is very good, enjoyed watching his piece with McCullough, particularly the story about the trader who went long Eurobonds and left the office for 8 months, only returning to double his bet, and then retired with his bonus for the year. If you can find the right trade, and stick with it for the duration of the move, you can make life changing amounts of money.
Anyway, thanks for the youtube channel, really informative and I will definitely look for further updates.

11th Mar '19

Thanks Donald. Yes I saw the same interview, that trader made a $200 million bonus on that trade and the firm made over $1 billion from memory. Not made for a few hours work! Rauol did a really good video on global macro, you've probably already seen it but here's a link for others too Rauol Global Macro.

Combining Economic Data and Price Volume Analysis to Forecast Market Returns

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Jack Corsellis

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