Market Musings 150424: All Eyes On Oil And Gold

15th Apr by Edmund Shing

13 comments 1852 reads

Market Musings 150424: All eyes on oil and gold

5 Charts of the week
Oil and gold will give us clues as to the impact of any escalation of the Middle East conflict, now including Iran

5 Charts to Consider

1. 10-year US bond yield rises, threatening stock market valuations

The higher-than-expected March US CPI print, combined with a surprisingly weak US Treasury bond auction, both conspired to push US 10-year bond yields higher, to 4.55%.

If bond yields move closer to 5%, this is likely to put US stocks under more pressure, which could prompt a correction.

Source: tradingview.com

2. Brent crude oil price holds steady at $90/barrel despite Iranian attack on Israel

No move (yet) higher in the geopoltical risk premium in the oil price despite the Iranian missile + drone attack on Israel.
Key will be the level of any Israeli retaliation, with the US noticeably urging Israel not to overreact to this telegraphed strike.
President Biden is keen not to see US households impacted by a further surge in gasoline prices, which could hurt his chances of re-election.

Source: tradingview.com

3. Gold and Silver move to new highs, in spite of a slam on Friday

The spike of gold and silver prices was slapped back down quickly - nevertheless, they both posted gains yet again over the week
to new highs. There remains plenty of potential for silver relative to gold, given the elevated gold/silver price ratio.

Source: tradingview.com

4. Copper consolidates, but may move higher on a new ban on Russian metals

"The London Metal Exchange (LME) on Saturday banned from its system Russian metal produced on or after April 13 to comply with new U.S. and UK sanctions imposed for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions aim to restrict revenues for Russia from the export of metal produced by companies such as Rusal and Nornickel that help to fund its military operations in Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury Department and the British government on Friday prohibited the 147-year old LME and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from accepting new Russian production of aluminum, copper and…

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Rusty2

15th Apr

Oil is down this morning. Gold and silver are up but some mining shares are down. Tin is up. Strange market. I was expecting oil to be up today.

BnB

Oil is down because Iran was careful to throw its most useless weapons at Israel's formidable air defence cordon in the hope and expectation that all would be shot down and no fatalities would transpire. They've satisfied their local audience with a display of aggression and appeased the US with an arsenal equivalent to bows and arrows vs modern weapons.

Matters could still escalate however if Israel retaliates.

Epitychia

Inflation fell more than expected last year, and is falling less than expected this year. Overall a lot of commentary over very little.

This comment has been moderated

Alphaflight

This comment is under review

I see my post has been removed, don't understand why. This happened a few weeks for no good reason, as far as I and some others can see. Getting fed uo with this. Like others have said and done, maybe I will go elsewhere.

Is this some auto bot moderation?

Hi Rusty2. I didn't see your original comment unfortunately.

WarrantStar

After removing user content from here, it would be better if Stocko had to explain to the poster how the content guidelines had been breached. Of course they wouldn't want to do that because it would be time consuming and likely to provoke an angry response from the poster. But ultimately it might lead to a reduced number of offensive posts?

Without giving a reason, I think, the poster will be more annoyed.

Maybe I did write something that was against the rules.

If Stockopedia let me know then we can move on.

ACounsell

Unfortunately it look like gold has gone into reverse today. VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF USD A (LON:GDGB) andVanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF USD A (LON:GJGB) down close to 5%. . Wisdomtree Metal Securities (LON:PHGP) (physical gold bullion)not far behind at 2% down . Profit taking perhaps as holders may think reached peak despite (or because of!) all the bullish comment in financial media.

StrawberryDreams

I've heard the Chinese, most notably including their central bank are buying up gold still too like crazy too.Definitely some real demand from such a big popualtion as retail investors have been following their central bank.Not sure if there is anything in that to be figured out economically or geopolitically personally.Although perhaps?

'Chinese gold ETFs attracted RMB827mn (US$113mn), lifting their total AUM to an all-time high.The PBoC reported the 15th consecutive gold purchase in January, adding 10t to their gold reserves and lifting the total to 2,245t.'

Patrickmylnetrade

16th Apr

rusty i think if it's removed, you see the removed post marked as 'removed', so suspect this hasn't ben moderated... you can use th green button to ask if it helps

Thanks, Patrick, it seems to have gone. I can't be bothered to be honest. This is the second time. I know a lot of members, were annoyed last time, quite a few posts got removed, seems pretty inconsistent.

Market Musings 150424: All eyes on oil and gold

Market Musings 150424: All eyes on oil and gold

5 Charts to Consider

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Edmund Shing

13 comments

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