Cranswick on the move

Wednesday, May 24 2017 by
2

I have been investing on price volume analysis and recently have added successfully into Cranswick (LON:CWK) which is demonstrating all the attributes of an alpha stock with strong relative strength and momentum. It's recent trading results were above analysts expectations for eps, see:
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=CWK:LSE. It reported strong like for like revenue performance, profit growth and has a very modest net debt position, so has good financial flexibility going forward.

However all IMO and would invite other opinions and views on the stock.

Regards,

tony777x

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Cranswick plc is a United Kingdom-based supplier of food products. The Company operates through Foods segment, which is engaged in the manufacture and supply of food products to the United Kingdom grocery retailers, the food service sector and other food producers. The Company provides a range of pork, gourmet sausages, cooked meats, cooked poultry, charcuterie, hand-cured and air-dried bacon and gourmet pastry products through retail, food servicing and manufacturing channels. The Company's brands include Bodega, Woodall's, Simply Sausages and Yorkshire Baker. The Company operates from 16 production facilities in the United Kingdom. The Company also owns its own pig breeding and rearing operations. It also owns chicken supply chain, including a feed mill, hatchery and broiler farms. From its Bury, the Company manufactures and distributes foods from Europe, using packaging formats and flavor combinations. more »

LSE Price
2626p
Change
1.9%
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,337
P/E (fwd)
17.5
Yield (fwd)
2.3



  Is LON:CWK fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


11 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

steviej 24th May '17 1 of 11

Any reason you don't use the forecasts on the stockreport?

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tony777x 24th May '17 2 of 11

I usually will use the EPS forecast on stockopedia, but once a company announces results I can't find a way of viewing historical EPS estimates. Prior to results both the forecast on FT and here were the same. If there is a way of viewing historical analyst EPS forecast on stockopedia then please let me know. Currently I can only see estimates for the next two financial years, I cannot see what the analyst forecast for EPS was for FY 2017.

Regards,

tony777x

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herbie47 24th May '17 3 of 11
2

If you click on Print then you can select a page from each month, going back years, this should give you the forecast EPS before the results.

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UK Value Investor 24th May '17 4 of 11
4

I'm a value rather than momentum investor so my viewpoint is different to yours, but you asked for other views so here's my two pence:

I like Cranswick and was lucky enough to make a decent return with it over a couple of years following the horse meat scandal (2013-2015). Cranswick's premium British meat products were perfectly placed to benefit as consumers moved from cheap (often foreign) meat to premium meat once they found out that cheap meat is not always what is says on the tip.

As a value investor the price is a bit rich for me at the moment though. The yield is only just over 1% and the price is almost 39-times the company's 10-year average earnings.

However, it is a great company so I'd be happy to invest again at a lower price. Perhaps 1500p might do it, but that would require a profit warning or two I think.

Blog: UK Value Investor
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tony777x 24th May '17 5 of 11

In reply to post #188129

Thanks Herbie47. Yeah so forecast eps was 116.7p on stockopedia before announcement of results. The only reason I tend to use FT forecast is so that I can get a feel over whether the company consistently beats analyst expectations. Though stockopedia is very good for seeing recent broker upgrades.

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herbie47 24th May '17 6 of 11

In reply to post #188144

Yes I like to look back a year to see the difference between forecast and actual, some companies they have been vastly underestimated, such as Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR) and Burford Capital (LON:BUR), and even right up to the results.

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tony777x 24th May '17 7 of 11

In reply to post #188139

Thanks for your view on Cranswick UK value investor. I can completely understand your view as a value investor over Cranswick, though rightly or wrongly I am fairly confident as a momentum investor of seeing further upside in this share. Though I am prepared to see a brief pullback at some stage after recent uptrend.

Like you, I did hold this share when it was more of a value stock in 2014 when I first started trading, but sold way too early just after the general election results in May 2014.

Regards,

Tony777x

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steviej 24th May '17 8 of 11

Ok understood. Broker forecasts are rarely the same across data providers.

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gus 1065 24th May '17 9 of 11
1

In reply to post #188154

Hi Tony.

I think you did sell a little early. The General Election was in May 2015. :-)

Gus.

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tony777x 24th May '17 10 of 11

In reply to post #188174

Hi Gus,

yeah meant to put 2015 ;) my bad.

Tony777x

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abtan 24th May '17 11 of 11
1

Hi all

I haven't looked at Cranswick in a while, but I'm reminded of a Guardian post from a few days.
I hope I'm okay to post here for any who are interested:

"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/21/brexit-coming-food-crisis-seasonal-migrant-labour-eu"

I have no opinion on what might happen in the future within this industry, but thoughts from anyone in the know would be appreciated.

Cheers
Abtan

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