Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 13 June 2025) - PAY, MPE, LTI, AGR/PHP, OXIG, GRIO, MFX, NXR, MOTR

Fri 6:06am by Graham Neary

45 comments 4676 reads

Good morning!

First up, I'm sorry that we didn't cover more in yesterday's report - it was entirely my fault, and I'll try to make up for it today! There is hardly any news today, so my main focus will be the backlog.

First up, we have a section from Roland on PayPoint.

Wrapping up the report there, thanks everyone.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.62bn)	Statement regarding offer by PHP for Assura	Primary Health Properties (LON:PHP) has not given up in its bid to acquire Assura, despite KKR/Stonepeak having their cash bid recommended by the Assura board two days ago. That cash bid is 50.4p plus scheduled dividends bringing the total value to 52.1p. Today PHP argues the case for its own bid, saying that its LTV leverage will only “temporarily” exceed the target range (40-50%) and will return to that range in the short-term and that it expects to obtain an investment-grade credit rating. From a risk point of view, it notes that the combined group’s portfolio would be principally let to government tenants. Based on yesterday’s PHP share price (103p), their proposal is worth 53p, a small premium to the proposal from KKR/Stonepeak.	PINK (Graham) [no section below] It’s a wonderful position for Assura shareholders to have two competing proposals, but KKR/Stonepeak have made their “final” cash offer. Perhaps PHP should offer a little more? The premium they offer over the KKR/Stonepeak deal is less than 2% which is not much considering that one is cash and the other is a riskier mix of cash and shares. To win over Assura shareholders may require a higher premium, and the Assura board are satisfied that KKR/Stonepeak is the right choice. So for now, it looks like KKR/Stonepeak are more likely to get it through. Personally I agree with the strategic merit of what PHP are proposing, even if it is rather ambitious. The two companies are roughly equal in size, so it would always be somewhat tricky for PHP to acquire AGR.
Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG) (£1.09bn)	Preliminary Results	Revenue +6.5% (£500.6m), adj. operating profit is up 10.8% when measured at organic constant currencies, but is only up 2% without those additional adjustments (£82m). Very large FX headwind (£8.5m) due to USD weakening. Statutory operating profit falls to £39.2m. Net cash stable at £84m. £60m disposal to…

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ChrisW

Fri 10:31am

Travel and arrive?

BAE already on 24x earnings, Babcock on 21x and Chemring on 28x.

Selling dear stocks is a tough discipline when the story is good (see comment re: LTI!)

nettle

following my previous comment on Oxford Instruments (LON:OXIG) , I notice that it is now the sixth most 'viewed in the community'. And it is a company with interesting niches, so perhaps worth a look

timarr

Fri 10:52am

Whatever their "method" was, it clearly didn't include selling ex growth stocks when on a growth rating ... It begs the question, did the bulk of these investors performance simply come from the rerating caused by the fall 10 year gilt yields from about 2.8% in Jan 2014 to 0.2% in Jan 2020?

Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LON:LTI).

It's unquestionably the case that the quality buy and hold funds benefited from the interest rate falls in the last decades - but so did the overall market and they outperformed that. Beating the market in the last five years has pretty much meant being in the Mag7, but outperforming an index tracker in that market is nigh on impossible.

But human stupidity is ineradicable. When the trust was flying high on a diet of bond proxies investors were piling in at a premium to NAV over 100% despite the chairman of the company and Nick Train telling them not to do it. Now it's at a discount no one wants to buy it despite the fact the portfolio is packed with quality stocks many of which are themselves cheap. Plus you have the fund manager stake, which is itself discounted due to how unloved active management is.

Anyway, apart from Lindsell Train itself the top holdings are London Stock Exchange (LON:LSEG), Nintendo Co (TYO:7974) and Relx (LON:REL) . 10% is in WS Lindsell Train North American which holds Fair Isaac (NYQ:FICO) , Equifax (NYQ:EFX) and Visa (NYQ:V) as its top three holdings.

10% discount available on all of that. I've been buying when it went lower, but it's still a fair price I think.

Graham Neary

Fri 10:55am

Some very fair points in there Chris! I only mentioned them as examples of stocks that I follow as there are some quality arguments to be made for them, or at least there were! They did become overvalued, but then so did many other stocks when rates were lower.

LTI's largest individual stock holdings are London Stock Exchange, Nintendo and RELX.

Thank you nettle, I've added my brief comment on OXIG.

cadmunkey

Fri 11:27am

Same, I've just sold as World events seem a bit unpredictable at the moment!

john2

Fri 11:32am

As far as Diageo (LON:DGE) are concerned, I would be reluctant to invest since the younger generation do not seem to be drinking as much alcohol as their parents did. I think that this is a long-term problem for all major brands of alcoholic drink.

Fri 11:55am

Many thanks. Your comments were very valuable to me. I was strongly considering investing, but as an amateur I hadn't appreciated the points you made. Both the plus, and especially the minuses. I shall delay my investment. As St Warren Buffett has written, with a Baseball metaphor: "You don’t have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch."

scarboro

Fri 12:09pm

LTI M Lindsell keeps hoovering up shares

The Boon Fund

Fri 12:14pm

With the threat of nuclear war flaring its head again, an interesting play would be Iofina (LON:IOF) who is one of the largest suppliers of Iodine I believe? There could be panic buying, panic stocking up? One to DYOR as I do not know Iofina very well.

Neil P

Fri 12:37pm

I agree with Graham about trusts winding up, I did some of these in 2016/7 and in those days the delisting and winding up was very quick. Recent ones have taken ages, a prime example being Rdl Realisation (LON:RDL^B21) formerly Ranger Direct Lending which still seems to be in my portfolio even though it went a long time ago - even the web site has been deleted! I have several on the go at the moment, and might now exit in the market if there's a profit to be made, to avoid the cash being locked up for an extended period.

OldSchool05

Fri 1:18pm

Roland, thanks for the analysis of PayPoint (LON:PAY).

I have sold on the back of these results for a healthy profit, mainly following;

> share price is now at the top end of its historic level, as are key metrics.

> I dislike the approach to their reporting, too many words and too much management-speak.

> Three profit measures is far too much for a PI to get head around. Too many adjustments, which are not really 'exceptional'.

> I would agree with you that they have bailed out Judge Logistics, a well thought through 'strategic investment' would not be written off by 80% within one year.

> Taking on debt to finance a share buyback.

JohnDoe2378

Fri 1:19pm

MS International (LON:MSI) on around 13 x

Bouden54

Fri 3:25pm

The problem is that Train stubbornly never sells anything - no matter what problems a company may be facing he sticks by his 'hold forever' principle. You're right, I suspect a lot of the earlier strong performance was the heavy exposure to so-called 'bond proxies' which did extremely well when rates were cut to zero.

Revs8

Fri 3:31pm

Thanks for the PayPoint (LON:PAY) analysis Roland. Very comprehensive and fair.

ken mitchell

Fri 4:03pm

I also got a holding in Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) as a result of holding Anglo American (LON:AAL) and posted somewhere here that I added more on the dip as holders not wanting them sold out, and added that Anglo still have a holding and are free to start selling that stake after 90 days.

I sold Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) mainly because the short term profit looked too good to miss, along with the platinum price falling back after big and Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) recent gain.

I used to hold Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) but sold near the bottom. It’s a good idea to check the spot platinum price to help Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) decision making.

This link is for an excellent site for all the latest commodity prices, and this particular one is for the latest spot platinum price:-

https://tradingeconomics.com/c...

Fri 5:41pm

I have published this week's "Week Ahead" article for anyone who wants a quick preview of the central bank decisions and company announcements that are coming up:

Link: Week Ahead (16th-20th June)

Epicsurf

Sat 6:44am

My first post

I also sold paypoint on Friday for a decent profit.

Red flag was using debt for buybacks

Rather than reducing leverage, I'm sure there is some clever tax efficient reason for doing this.

Not totally convinced how much value

buybacks actually achieve in the long run.

Sat 10:23am

Hi Bouden54

The problem is that Train stubbornly never sells anything - no matter what problems a company may be facing he sticks by his 'hold forever' principle.

Not entirely true - after years of buying at higher levels he sold Pearson (LON:PSON near the bottom. I was on the other side of that deal in a modest way, and it's been a highly successful purchase.

By and large they stick to their approach, which is to buy serial compounders and hold for a long time. That part of the market had its time in the sun during the period where interest rates fell to near zero, and has been less successful since. But that is the nature of the approach - no market sector leads forever, so if your approach is buy and hold it will inevitably go through periods of underperformance.

In respect of Lindsell Train Investment Trust (LON:LTI) both the Chairman, Julian Cazalet, and Nick Train warned investors off the trust in 2018 when it went to a 40% premium. Investors, being the herding creatures they are, ignored the warnings and sent the premium over 100% before the inevitable reversal. Now that it's trading at a discount it's the managers who are fools, although no one ever seems to look in the mirror.

LTI is a peculiar beast, being a combination of a normal investment trust and a fund manager. If you believe that active fund management isn't entirely dead then the company is currently very attractively valued. Also note that they're proposing a 1 to 100 share split to enable more monthly saving and dividend reinvestment.

Silver Moon

Sat 2:02pm

Jut recently I've been considering selling my PayPoint (LON:PAY) , have jumped too soon on other stocks I 'm keeping it on. There should be no need to mention the going ex-dividend on the 3rd of July as that is built into the current share price. Of course if the buy-backs are to pad out the Directors share options based on price performance it's a blight. Other than this, the 3-year performance chart and the 50dMA tells me there is more to come with Paypoint.

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 13 June 2025) - PAY, MPE, LTI, AGR/PHP, OXIG, GRIO, MFX, NXR, MOTR

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Graham Neary

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