Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 15 May 2025) - WOSG, FTC, ECEL, COST, ITV, III, ATG, STB, SGE, AV., MBH, DWS, CUSN, NEXS

Thu 6:00am by Graham Neary

26 comments 4769 reads

Good morning! Mark and I will have the agenda for you soon.

The Agenda is complete.

1.25pm: that's all, folks!

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
3i (LON:III) (£41bn)	Results for year to March 2025	Total return 25% on opening funds. NAV £25.42. Main holding “Action” was the primary driver.	AMBER (Graham) Undeniably a historic winner, the current lack of diversification and share price premium to NAV are enough to put me off.
National Grid (LON:NG.) (£37.8bn)	FY2025 Full Year Results	Adj. op profit +12% (£5.4bn). FY March 2026: adj. EPS in line with 6-8% growth range.
Flutter Entertainment (LON:FLTR) (£33.1bn)	Completion of NSX Acquisition	Acquires initial 56% stake in Brazilian operator NSX Group for cash of approx. $350m.
Aviva (LON:AV.) (£15.3bn)	Q1 Trading Update	Q1 general insurance premiums +9%. Wealth net flows £2.3bn (5% of AUM). Acquisition of Direct Line on track. Very positive on the 2025 outlook. Confident in meeting the 2026 targets that were set out after FY23, including annual operating profit of £2bn.	AMBER/GREEN (Graham) [no section below] It’s difficult to find fault with today’s update, which includes very confident statements on the outlook and on progress towards medium-term targets. At a PER of c. 11x the main concern for Aviva shareholders now is the CMA probe into their acquisition of Direct Line.
Sage (LON:SGE) (£12.5bn)	Interim Results & Share Buyback Programme	ARR +11% (£2,454m). H1 adj. operating profit +9% (£288m). Outlook: organic rev growth ≥ 9%.	GREEN (Megan) Another fantastic set of results, only slightly tempered by the comment on “more volatile and uncertain” macroeconomics. I’m still positive about this in the long term.
United Utilities (LON:UU.). (£7.3bn)	Final Results	Adj. PBT +53.6% (£338.6m). New regulatory cycle: targeting divi growth in line with CPIH.
ITV (LON:ITV) (£2.97bn)	Q1 Trading Update	Q1 in line. Outlook at Studios unch. At Media & Entertainment, H1 ad revenue to fall 8%.	AMBER (Megan) As usual, numbers from ITV show a company that is clinging on. It’s a relief that there is nothing terrible to report, but there is nothing inspiring either. It’s a shame because there is potential. But without the kind of focus that Carolyn McCall brought to her first few years as CEO, this is only ever going to be a slow and steady chugger. And a takeover target.
Lion…

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eParo

Thu 7:44am

Sudden spurt from the off at SDI (LON:SDI). Leaky?

Rusty2

Thu 7:54am

Yes just seen that, up 13%. Now suspended on my platform.

raggedtp

Thu 8:20am

Frustrating! I feel this means I keep hanging on, although I know what I would put the funds into already. But the rejected bid was at 530p, and this morning someone like me is selling, so price to buy is about 387p. Given that the DD has been going on 2 months already and a further extension has been given, the bidders must still be interested (I thought Michael Carvill was happy to retire?), so the price being considered ought not to be less than 550. Anyone want to dip in for what might be 40% in 5 weeks?

daz123

Thu 8:29am

A trading update is imminent and I thought there was a good chance of a beat, so as you say, it could be a leak

jonno

Thu 8:36am

Eurocell (LON:ECEL) management tells it as it is. No flowery language. Tone is consistent with previous announcements. I have a medium size holding. No finance issues

Alumnet offsetting headwinds in core business. At some point the headwinds will abate.

Would be interested to hear others views and perhaps those of Roland as this appears his type of share.

Thu 8:59am

As long as SDI (LON:SDI) does not do a On Beach group (LON:OTB) that was up about 15% the day before an update, the update was not that good, shares fell back rapidly. Of course before the market opened.

Shares are back trading, up 16% now.

Chrisfarrell21

Good morning.

Would love it if Graham would look at Secure Trust Bank (LON:STB)'s trading statement today.

From a chart perspective it's looking very tempting, nearly doubled from the lows, in what looks to be a confirmed stage 2 uptrend, and this is all backed up by the figures on the Stock Report, greens everywhere on valuation, and a high Stock Rank.

I won't lie, I'm tempted, even though I know there are the usual issues with banks generally, vehicle loans in particular, and the commissions.

Cheers

Chris

Graham Neary

Thu 9:05am

Hi Chris, I'll see if I can get around to this! Cheers.

boringchess

Thu 9:12am

I don't have much to say except that I have a tiny little position as I like the biz and have used them personally as a consumer

Did note that they said in a pretty straight forward way: living wages / NI changes have immediately gone into our prices which no doubt we will see en masse

Thu 9:33am

Cheers Graham, I always said you were my favourite writer here ;)

Hear here

Thu 10:03am

Totally agree, I’ve top sliced at £30, £35, and £40. But each time it just kept going up. Today shows its v vulnerable to any bad news. Amazing valuation

BnB

Thu 10:10am

Would be interested to hear others views

Yes an honest TU from ECEL, and still a rock solid balance sheet, but the company lacks the regulatory and climate-driven drivers of an ALU or FAN and the chart tells the story. I ran the rule the rule over it again today and concluded it has no USP and its commoditised products are, how shall I put this, unaesthetic - but I’m an architectural snob so take that with a pinch of salt.

That said, there’s probably more upside in a beaten down cyclical and I guess holders will do well if the new build and RMI markets pick up. But can you count on that happening?

NeilS

Thu 10:29am

Greencore (LON:GNC) good results today (I hold) reading through I came across this comment about the business efficiencies being driven but have never heard of this before :

“For example, in H1 25, the Group introduced an autonomous negotiation solution and a”

What is it? Is it just a posh name for (much hated when I ran a business!) an E auction? Anyone know!?

rhomboid1

Thu 10:32am

Shadowfall have just taken a short position on 3i (LON:III) ..Matthew Earl makes some very interesting observations on accounting at Action…

Bouden54

Thu 10:38am

Would be interesting to see the implied PE ratio the market is putting on Action - not calculated it but must be well in excess of 30. Moreover, the exponential growth at Action has to slow at some point.

Mhar91

Thu 12:13pm

I’m on the fence with Eurocell (LON:ECEL). Small example but my local branch has closed as there is a small independent plastic, windows, doors etc company next door that were much much cheaper. Maybe it’s good they are cost cutting and on the ball when it Comes to less profitable branches, but I wonder how much this could be happening around the country. I’ve held here in the past and may dabble again if I goes cheaper. It may be difficult for them to offset higher costs with higher prices with a competitive market. Just food for thought

MetalMaid

Thu 12:29pm

Watches of Switzerland (LON:WOSG)

The main negative point about this stock in my opinion is rarely discussed and possibly some investors are unaware. WOSG rellies heavily on Rolex sales - this is not a secret. However the way they conduct business around Rolex sales is extremely shady.

In order to buy a Rolex you have to join a waiting list. This is not a fair and transparent list. You will never ever be called for your turn, doesn't matter how many years you wait. The watches are only sold to those that are willing to drop substantial amounts on other jewellery products - this is often in the tens of thousands.

So the whole business model is built around a 3rd party brand and shady practices. I am also told that many of the watches are sold to 'friends' of employees and then sold on the grey market. So they either go to the employees or they only go to those willing to spend on other products.

Therefore when we analyse the revenue mix - we should be aware that some of the jewellery sales would not occur under different circumstances i.e. if Rolex dropped WOSG as their main distributor, it wouldn't only impact the Rolex sales but would also impact the general jewellery and other watch sales. In my opinion, I don't see the relationship changing any time soon, and investors may be happy with this type of business model, but personally for me I can't stand these types of business behaviours, and so would never invest now that I know how the business actually operates.

Charles Mitchell

Thu 12:33pm

3i (LON:III) I remain negative on the premium this trust is on. If III realise some of the holding in Action at anything close to the valuation, that would not for me justify the valuation. The chances of them having another success like action are slight given the lack of free capital they have to invest. And it would be no surpise if they undertake a large fund raising given the premium to NAV, but I suggest they would have to offload some of the Action holding to get that away.

yiannos1

Thu 12:50pm

And he is 100% correct.

All the best

abtan

Thu 1:02pm

For anyone interested Foot Locker (NYQ:FL) have agreed to be taken over by Dick's Sporting Goods (NYQ:DKS) for $2.5b.

Foot Locker (NYQ:FL) have been struggling for a while now, but this seems like a bargain price given that the company generated Operating Profit of $800m-$1b in the pre-covid years.

"The total consideration represents an acquisition multiple of approximately 6.1x fiscal 2024 adjusted EBITDA."

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There's no guidance given by Foot Locker (NYQ:FL) for the current financial year, which is a shame as I was hoping for some sort of read across to JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.), which I am keen to buy back into.

I can't quite work out if the lack of guidance is due to the takeover, because things are still not going well or because of tariffs.

In any case applying the x6.1 EBITDA multiple mentioned above to JD Sports Fashion (LON:JD.) results last year implies c£9m valuation (I've quickly estimated EBITDA at £1.5b for FY24) vs the current £5b market cap.

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 15 May 2025) - WOSG, FTC, ECEL, COST, ITV, III, ATG, STB, SGE, AV., MBH, DWS, CUSN, NEXS

Companies Reporting

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Graham Neary

26 comments

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