Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 19 June 2025) - JNEO, ANP, HSW, XPS, CAPD, HAYS, REVB, MEGP

Thu 6:05am by Graham Neary

41 comments 4841 reads

Good morning!

The Federal Reserve did as expected, keeping interest rates unchanged, and continuing to indicate two rate cuts later this year.

And I've published an article to provide an overview of the PE investment trust sector - here's the link.

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

Let's wrap it up there, thank you.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)	RNS	Summary	Our view (Author)
Whitbread (LON:WTB) (£4.9bn)	1st Quarter Results	Q1 LfL sales -1%, total sales -4%. “On track to deliver incremental profit of >£300m by FY30”.
Assura (LON:AGR) (£1.6bn)	Offer Updates	Only one regulatory condition is outstanding. Copies of takeover loan agreement published online.
Hays (LON:HAS) (£1.1bn)	Y/E Trading Update	PW. Adj. op profit for FY 6/2025 c. £45m, v. £56.4m consensus. Low client and candidate confidence.	BLACK (AMBER/RED) (Graham) Downgrading this on the basis that profit warnings tend to be followed by other profit warnings. Mark correctly noted that there was risk associated with an H2 EPS weighting here. That risk has now materialised. The EPS forecast trend was miserable anyway. What's really disappointing as far as I'm concerned is how badly this sector has performed even though the major economies are not in recession. Either they are extremely economically sensitive, or something structural has happened to the permanent recruitment business model.
ME International (LON:MEGP) (£867m)	Response to media speculation (yest. afternoon)	Evaluating options, including seeking potential offerors.	PINK (AMBER/GREEN) (Graham) [no section below] CEO Serge Crasnianski (age 82) owns 36% of the company, having bought an additional 7.7% back in 2022. He made an offer to buy the rest of it then, for the cheap price of £180m. I’m not sure what has brought on these rumours, and I also don’t know which is more likely - could it be that Mr. Crasnianski is again hoping to increase his ownership, or instead might he be thinking about cashing out? Perhaps the latter is more likely? Either way, this is a stock we like and I’ll leave our AMBER/GREEN unchanged. We reviewed its most recent trading update earlier this month.
XPS Pensions (LON:XPS) (£783m)	Full Year Results	Revenue +18%, adj. PBT +34% (£59.5m). EPS of 20.6p is 6% ahead of FY25 exps. Outlook in line with recently upgraded expectations. Canaccord estimates: FY26E EPS 21.1p (prev 21.0p), FY26E EPS 22.8p (prev 22.5p).	AMBER/GREEN (Roland) XPS has deserved its High Flyer status…

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Mark B

Thu 2:06pm

Perhaps the age of reason is making a come back. The thinking about the energy with the current government was, so extraordinary, I bought shares in Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) several months ago as I thought the weight of the economic decisions around energy policy would one day unravel. It looks as if common sense is starting to prevail. I wonder how Ed will make this sound green to his ideological followers. I would say that it's foolish to import oil and gas if we can extract it from UK fields, as the act of importing is carbon intensive, and Rachael from accounts will receive the very healthy tax that those fields would also generate. I should thank him for giving me the opportunity.

john2

Thu 2:10pm

The summary write up for ME International (LON:MEGP) shows AMBER/RED instead of AMBER/GREEN at the top.

The Phoenix

Thu 2:31pm

Maybe they have twigged it will be hard to get that elusive growth everyone wants when you have the highest electric prices in Europe.

Abel

Thu 2:35pm

I was about to flag the same

FREng

Thu 2:45pm

Miliband rewrites green rules to allow North Sea drilling (Times). Any implication for SQZ?

Thu 2:47pm

So have I.

timarr

Thu 2:54pm

I would say that it's foolish to import oil and gas if we can extract it from UK fields, as the act of importing is carbon intensive, and Rachael from accounts will receive the very healthy tax that those fields would also generate. I should thank him for giving me the opportunity.

Wrong sort of oil for UK energy production. Mostly it would be sold on the world markets by the production companies rather than imported for UK use.

To maximise the utility to the UK the Chancellor needs to tax oil producers as much as possible while not discouraging production. That's if you define utility as equivalent to monetary value of course, other definitions are possible.

It's Rachel, by the way. "Rachael from accounts" was an exotic dancer from Basildon who specialised in using drop leaf files in imaginative ways.

mabie41

Thu 2:59pm

I hold first rate co fall overdone RBC cut target to 575 not under 400 cannot see any other reason I have bought more

Rusty2

Thu 3:07pm

Breedon (LON:BREE) Broker downgrades, seem to have far more impact, these days than years ago. They are often wrong, l don't know why anyone takes any notice of them.

Thu 3:20pm

Actually, due to the lack of refining capability, we export oil and import refined products. An argument around security has been made previously to restore some capacity to refine. I think I like the "Rachael from accounts" after being enlightened - even though it's wrong. :-)

Thu 3:35pm

On this long hot summer days also wonder how people are intending to play the upcoming tariffs update day on July 9th, given the great boaster would talk up the opening of an envelope my initial thought is they have agreed near zero deals so he will mail out letters saying your paying X and chaos will start once more.

Interested to hear other peoples thoughts on this and how they intend to play it I'm mulling going 33% to cash if we see a repeat of April to snap up bargains if chaos happens.

ken mitchell

Thu 3:55pm

I hold Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) Ithaca Energy (LON:ITH) anf Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) and they’ve all had a great recent run. Wasn’t that the market pricing in the North Sea news today and hence the relatively modest further gains today?

Thu 4:05pm

Actually, due to the lack of refining capability, we export oil and import refined products

True, some of the exported oil could be refined for domestic use. However, we only have around 10 years of exploitable NS oil left so no private sector company is going to build a refinery in the UK without massive government subsidy, which isn't going to happen either.

Now ensuring we have gas storage facilities so that we have a supply reserve, that's another matter ...

Thu 4:31pm

maybe, but with SQZ on a PE of 10, Yield of 10% and SR of 95, the shares look cheap still.

Thu 4:43pm

Serica Energy (LON:SQZ) Let's hope there are no more problems with Triton, there should be an update next week.

Lincoln Green Imp

Thu 4:48pm

Yes, even if there is a u -turn on oil, I can't imagine there will be new licenses given. Unless someone tells Milliband to clear off. I'm putting that politely. I hold Serica , but not added today.

Thu 5:00pm

Thank you topvest for your post about (LON:HET)(LON:FEV). I had a quick look this morning and wondered why HET was up compared to everything else and then saw your post this afternoon. I hold both as well.

Graham Neary

Thu 5:35pm

fixed, thank you!

Harry Hindsight

Thu 8:38pm

All irrelevant. Muppet will windfall tax anything they make so why do the hard work in the North Sea - just invest in bitcoin far easier. Or stash gold. Forget it. Move on. Invest in the Norwegians or France who will sell it to us.

abtan

Thu 8:53pm

Hostelworld (LON:HSW)

Hi Graham

I just want to say thanks for sending me down the Hostelworld (LON:HSW) rabbit hole with your "No Section Below" comment today.

It looks far more interesting than I thought it would be, with a lot of positives over recent years.
Even the debt is interest-free for the next 2 years.

I also found the recent Capital Markets Day presentation most interesting.

I'm not fully convinced yet - which means I'll probably miss most of the recovery upside - but I have added it to the watchlist.

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 19 June 2025) - JNEO, ANP, HSW, XPS, CAPD, HAYS, REVB, MEGP

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Graham Neary

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