For the December 2011 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for
(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?
You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the December competition is midnight on Wednesday 30 November 2011.
Good luck!!!!!
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AST for the 20% gain, still plenty of mileage in this one - just look at the volatility post PG-11 news
For the down: Got to be PMG yet again.
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Don't normally post here but Aminex as a serial disappointer has rightly been punished by the market to the extent thats it's almost criminally undervalued..
Forget about whether the upcoming well is nominally successful - the market will not over the next month ignore the potential upside if in extremis AEX happens to find Oil.Solo seem to be talking their own book claming a 25% COS for Oil/Gas - I'm reckoning COS of 5% oil and 15% gas.
I take comfort from the fact that Tullow are still in and they don't waste their money or their time on no hopers.
So an easy 20% for me in December (I doubled up at 2.7p). I then have to make another decision about how much I sell In December pre Drill result - I'd be tempted to reduce back to my original investment at 4p .
This is frontier stuff after all and assuming the Rig operators aren't a bunch of clowns I reckon the market at the moment isnt up to speed with the upside.
No down..
ohisay
Your strategy is flawed imo as so many others here and elsewhere are thinking exactly the same and when that happens it just won't work.
Any decent rise in Aminex will see a sell off IMO.
Good luck anyway.
Isaac - remember Rovuma ?- everybody thought the same too - that didnt stop me and many others taking profits pre drill result.
Since when was a collective expectation any barrier to making a few bob.?
The current price just isnt up to speed with any kind of success- thats the issue IMV,.
Yes I rememeber Ruvuma very well, I sold near the top around 15p before the onsuing collapse. You will recall back in 08 I made a big fuss about the fund raising and my strategy was to sell out on rally which I expected when Ruvuma was being drilled.
Back then I was prepared to execute that strategy, but right now I would'nt be prepared to buy with that strategy in mind as if it does'nt work then what is your backup plan? "The US assets cover the share price"? No thanks.
I bought earlier in the Summer after the directors dipped into their pockets with the view that I could sell out before Nyuni result, but with the turmoil in the markets I abandoned ship, luckily before the collapse. I thought I would give the management the benefit of doubt as they bought shares & the backup plan at the time was Ruvuma well later in the year will see a good rally etc.
But bear in mind that strategy was based on more bouyant markets earlier in the year compared to the current volatility.
The way I see Aminex is if they have success the price won't progress much as they would need to raise cash to develop Ruvuma + other assets but if they fail the price will likely fall significantly and as they probably won't have much cash I simply don't see how from a weak position they can realise most of the value at a reasonabkle price in whatever assets they have left. So an interested party will probably buy the assets for a song.
Therefore I would'nt Invest - And I get the feeling that others are staying put to re-coup as much of their losses as they can & as such will look to sell the rallies.
Make no mistake in thinking what worked in the past will work again. QE worked quite well early on, these days markets don't seem to care as much - the rallies seem short lived. I think we will get another sell off in Jan, after this Santa rally. We will see.
AEX brightened up the flame (in more ways than one or two!!!) with the highest gain of 38.5% rise in the December >20% Up competition. Congratulations to Christian12 and Ohisay for winning it with AEX!!!! Let’s hope Mr Chanchai comes back for some more in the new year before or after the AEX’s Tanzania flame gets going!!! ;-)
The >20% down competition was won by Ewm55 with a respectable results on EXI which went down 12.7%. I guess Vladimir Putin’s political problems do not really help the Russia related stocks?!
Please email me off-board if you see any error in the compiliations. I'll revise if necessary.
The two set of results are shown below:
“>20% Up” Competition results:
4.4% Average
| 38.5% | AEX | Christian12 | Fool | ||
| 38.5% | AEX | Ohisay | Stockopedia | ||
| 30.5% | PCI | Sawney | Fool | ||
| 30.5% | PCI | Ingermarie | Fool | ||
| 16.7% | NGP | Ghh | Fool | ||
| 10.9% | GKP | Redhill101 | Fool | ||
| 10.9% | GKP | Jpgh | Fool | ||
| 10.9% | GKP | Saggy101 | Fool | ||
| 9.1% | CEO | Ewm55 | Fool | ||
| 9.1% | CEO | Tgg | Fool | ||
| 0.7% | VPP | CorporalCromarty | Fool | ||
| 0.6% | FPM | Crankbrook2 | Fool | ||
| 0.6% | FPM | Wshak | Fool | ||
| -0.7% | AST | Markc2010 | Fool | ||
| -0.7% | AST | Impvesta | Fool | ||
| -0.7% | AST | Fangorn | Stockopedia | ||
| -1.5% | AEY | Repobear | Fool | ||
| -1.6% | BOR | Rbcrbc | Fool | ||
| -2.4% | NOP | Fleecednflogged | Fool | ||
| -2.4% | TRP | Luminoso | Fool | ||
| -3.5% | SOU | Isaac | Stockopedia | ||
| -3.8% | WSX | Chriswalden | Fool | ||
| -8.2% | DEO | PeterGray | Fool | ||
| -8.2% | DEO | Tournesol2 | Fool | ||
| -9.1% | PAR(Sweden) | Beans4tea | Fool | ||
| -11.0% | NPE | Flyingbull | Fool | ||
| -11.0% | NPE | Slickreturns | Fool | ||
| -20.4% | MXP | Fatprophet | Fool |
Continue with previous post (problems with editing).
>20% Down” Competition results:
1.8% Average
| -12.7% | EXI | Ewm55 | Fool | ||
| -4.8% | FRR | Rbcrbc | Fool | ||
| -4.7% | CHAR | Flyingbull | Fool | ||
| -4.7% | CHAR | Markc2010 | Fool | ||
| -4.7% | CHAR | Christian12 | Fool | ||
| -4.7% | CHAR | Jpgh | Fool | ||
| -4.7% | CHAR | Chriswalden | Fool | ||
| -4.7% | CHAR | Slickreturns | Fool | ||
| -0.7% | AST | Sawney | Fool | ||
| -0.7% | AST | Luminoso | Fool | ||
| 6.5% | GBP | Saggy101 | Fool | ||
| 7.2% | PMG | Ghh | Fool | ||
| 7.2% | PMG | PeterGray | Fool | ||
| 7.2% | PMG | Tournesol2 | Fool | ||
| 7.2% | PMG | Wshak | Fool | ||
| 7.2% | PMG | Fleecednflogged | Fool | ||
| 7.2% | PMG | Fangorn | Stockopedia | ||
| 9.1% | CEO | Isaac | Stockopedia | ||
| 23.0% | XTR | CorporalCromarty | Fool |
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