It could have been Mark Twain who said something to the effect that history does not repeat but it does rhyme. In my opinion, whoever said it could quite easily have been referring to the financial markets and to the global economy in general. Although technology changes, as do fashions, much remains the same especially in the context of human nature. Looking back at J.K. Galbraith's classic The Great Crash 1929, with its depiction of fear, greed, panic and hubris, it's not difficult to see parallels with the financial crisis in 2007. Technology may have moved on but the human condition appears to remain static.

Casting our minds back to the recent past, how many serious commentators predicted a Trump Presidency? How many pundits predicted Leicester City winning England's Premier League in 2016? And what about Brexit? Let's finesse that. How many of those who accurately predicted those outcomes were prepared to bet a penny on their predictions? Sure, I can't prove it but I would suggest that very few people predicted those events, at least in their embryonic stages. And even fewer were prepared to wager anything on their own views.

As anyone who has studied history can testify unusual events frequently happen. Once assimilated they are no longer regarded as unusual; they are generally forgotten about. I am sure that looking across all sports and over time, Leicester City's accomplishments are not exceptional. Putting events in context, especially putting them into a longer time frame allows us to see similarities. Do you seriously believe that Trump's behaviour is that outrageous when compared to other leaders across time and space? Listening to the late Alistair Cooke's radio broadcasts in “Letters From America” gives a good portrait of how spicy American politics has been in the not so distant past. Viewed in context, I would suggest that Trump the politician may not be as odd as many believe.

So what you may ask as the above got to do with portfolio diversification? The point I am really making is in terms of the unpredictability of events – political, technological, social and economic, amongst many others. I would argue that we may have some broad ideas where things are moving, at least in the short-term, but that's broad and it may not go exactly to plan. Maybe as investors we need to accept that we have no…

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