Donald and Dave Episode 5

30th Oct '20 by donald pond

7 comments 784 reads

By popular demand, we carry on! Do continue to give us feedback, there is so much you've asked us to cover but we've never got enough time!

Anyway, hope everyone finds something to enjoy...as ever, no investment advice intended, but hopefully we plenty of ideas that can be a springboard for your own thoughts!

This week, the state of the markets in the week before the US elections, and how out performers in down markets can often be leaders when things improve.
Long term holdings and the costs of overseas trading.
Gold and the future of currencies.

Zoom, valuations in general and the problem with waiting until a stock breaks the 200DMA before going short.
Lots of stocks mentioned, including CHWY, NOW, ZM, PTON, HRN, EKF, SCE, IXI, AMRC.
Hope you enjoy!

By the way, I'll be hosting the Sharesoc Private Equity Masterclass on 10 November: more information available at
https://www.sharesoc.org/events/sharesoc-masterclass-private-equity-10-nov-2020/
We've got some good speakers lined up and it should be entertaining and informative

On 9 November I'’ll also be speaking at Mello Monday:
https://melloevents.com/upcoming-event/

Find us on Twitter at @DonaldPond6 and @Davidb1234 where we'll post some charts relevant to the topics discussed.

https://www.buzzsprout.com/138...

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/...

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William K

1st Nov '20

Thanks for another engrossing podcast. Thanks also for looking at the US markets, mentioning things such as Ameresco and Smith & Wesson. (Surely there must come a time when the US gun market is saturated? Or is there no limit to the number of guns needed by the average US household?)

You mentioned that it's worth looking out for shares that haven't dipped along with the rest of the market. Do you have any opinions on BABA (Alibaba)? It seems to be one of the few large technology companies that's holding its price pretty well. (I hold.)

donald pond

£BABA is not one I know well, but a quick look at the chart suggests its in a very strong positive channel. I'm reminded of Nicholas Darvas who said "there's never any reason to sell a stock that is rising". Funnily enough, John Rosier said something similar on this week's IC podcast, lamenting that he sold GAW (so did I) on valuation concerns that turned out to be misplaced. So if I had bought BABA a few months ago I would be very pleased with myself right now.

One of the hardest things is balancing that "letting your winners run" with not holding things as they move from stage 3 into stage 4. I think all you can do is accept you'll never time things perfectly but try to determine on the chart what the price would have to be for you to think that the story has changed. Do that during a period of calm, so you are ready for whatever the market throws at you.

As for guns, I think once you start buying guns as a hobby its similar to GAW: it becomes an addiction that you feed. Nobody "needs" a new warhammer figure, but people like expanding their collection, and I'm sure the big gun manufacturers do ranges of clothing, holsters, cabinets etc as well as just the guns themselves. Also, a lot of guns are used for hunting, and at ranges etc: they probably aren't predominantly used for protection. But it is a hard market to understand, they are very different to us!

By the way, anyone who has access to ADVFN may be interested in this post by wanobi, where he summarises the podcast and posts lots of charts for the stocks we discuss. It's good to have that all in one place.

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/t...

LeopoldAlcocks

Still enjoying these a lot - will try and think of some constructive feedback, but at the moment I can only say that they are really good. Very interesting and good production!

Wilbraham

BABA is Manchester And London Investment Trust (LON:MNL) 3rd largest holding at > 13%. As many will know, Manchester And London Investment Trust (LON:MNL) is a sort of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LON:SMT) on steroids - high conviction with top four positions accounting for 60% of the trust and it's held up relatively well over the past couple of weeks. https://www.investegate.co.uk/...

I thought there was a concern with BABA a month or two ago in that US-China tensions might lead to a delisting of the ADRs in the US. Should this occur, I imagine a professional trust will be better able to navigate moving their holding to China (or HK?) than we PIs can.

Finally - I'm most impressed with the D&D podcasts; way more informative than I'd expected (that's a compliment!).

Thanks Donald. Sensible advice / comments. My guess on BABA is that it will probably go up after a period of consolidation so I'm continuing to hold after buying in at $280. The sellers have been conspicuous by their absence over the last few weeks. Also the company is China based and their economy is recovering well so that may be a source of optimism. With regard to Americans and their guns, I think you summed it up perfectly "they are very different to us".

2nd Nov '20

I mentioned Horizon Discovery (LON:HZD) on the podcast as one to watch based on director buys. Today a takeover came at a 100% premium. Unfortunately not one I hold but shows the value of adding directors buys into the matrix.

Donald and Dave Episode 5

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