Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid a month before the US presidential elections. The US market has responded to the uncertainty by falling around 2 percentage points in early trading. Does anyone have any idea how the presidential illness will impact the markets over the next few weeks?
Professional Spread Bettor
"Its going to be the best disease ever. Wonderful disease. Full recovery. Back in the office in 7 days."
I would say zero impact. Most people are asymptomatic. The Don won't even notice, a bit like when Hand-cock got it.
What would cause chaos is if Old Joe gets it, gets incapacitated (hard to imagine), and suddenly there is a Russian style US election of only one viable candidate.
Of more consequence is whether the second wave is a serious threat or not.
Having visited my barber yesterday where I mingle with ordinary citizens, there's a serious problem with our global economies with rising unemployment, collapse in GDP / Productivity / Income / Employment / Tax take. Feed on to that, the underperformance of general health care, housing, law and order, and god-forbid de-carbonisation.
A pissy little trivial virus is the least of our problems compared to the economic destruction caused by Governments' unnecessary over-reaction to it.
I would suggest that COVID-19 has and will continue to have more impact, than any one person contracting it. Personally, I think COVID-19 is well understood and shares priced accordingly. We are in for stage 2 now which is traditional recession effects, such as unemployment. This is where time is focused on understanding.
BSV
Hee hee...best disease ever!
Barbers/hairdressers are an excellent eye on the world. They feel things happening quicker than most although fear of lockdown may be messing with their best signal...when money is a bit tighter people tend to go longer between visits but with bad hair lockdown looming business could be brisk right now?
I agree we are engaged in a massive hysterical self-harm.
My guess is that Trump will be okay and back in front of us very quick. His health is okay supposedly and the odds are very much in his favour. Plus he will be treated well, perhaps quite sensibly in ways that don't conform to US NIH guidance to use expensive and dangerous Remdesivir and instead use the much much much (ie cents versus few $k) hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin. These latter treatments are very well tested for efficacy and safety around the world but strangely under deployed and tested in US and European setting for covid. (Check out Ivermectin results - mortality greatly lower, speed of recovery much faster, very little reported after effects in terms of persistent ill health etc.)
What then?
It'll ensure that Trump wins (he was already probable winner IMO)
Next week Pence and Harris will debate. This was always going to be important due to the age of the two presidential candidates but will now be much more important. If I were Democratic strategist I'd now try get this debate cancelled due to 'special circumstances'. Harris is much smarter than Pence and will destroy him in a debate sense...but Pence is much more relatable and Harris has a bit of an outsider feel. Harris's base will love it, the mainstream media will lover her, Twitter will fawn....but she wont feel right to many americans (I'm not making a race comment...the racists were already voting Trump).
Trump is running a Biden hunt....there was so much fear that Biden would old man stumble that the fact he held together decently (bit wobbly at points) was received as a victory. This will shift as the hunt runs.
Trump is awful....he's our punishment for being hypermedia idiots and 'the elite' being distant and disapproving of the awful little people.
Its close though and I wouldn't put any money on it.
I think also think that the market would be up most on a Biden clean sweep as that would ensure massive fiscal stimulus under MMT conditions....and the tax hikes would be reeled in short term once in power as what's the point of counteracting the stimulus.
Many thanks everyone for the astringent insights with which I heartily agree.
Yesterday's review in Investopedia suggested that the disappointing US jobs news had more impact on the markets that Trump's positive Covid test.
By Friday's market close, the S&P 500 was down by 0.96%, the Dow by 0.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite had slid a full 2.22%.
Whilst these changes are somewhat negative, they represent little more than a mild correction after the gains of the preceding 4 days. It looks as if the US markets don't really care who wins the election.
Will be interesting to see what the markets make of this weekend’s goings on.
It looks like the futures are relatively stable at the moment, which is probably in keeping with the press coverage.
I am astonished though that there has not been more critical appraisal of what we are being told.
When Dr Conley gave his press statement on Saturday it was patently obvious that he was being less than honest on the subject of Oxygen (he is clearly not very good at the media game). It then transpired from “sources” (thank you Mr Meadows) that Trump indeed had been given oxygen.
We now hear from Conley that he wasn’t honest about Oxygen because “I was trying to reflect the upbeat attitude of the team...” So, basically all of his statements are propaganda not the truth?
(Oh but just to be fair to Dr Conley it is apparently “not necessarily true” that he had been trying to hide something.)
We also hear from Mr Meadows that Trumps condition had been “very concerning”. Maybe that was just an over-reaction from a layman to the fact (that we were belated told) that Trumps SATS had fallen to 93% at one stage.
To put that figure in context, my youngest had heart problems when younger and whenever he had a chest infection he was invariably hospitalised with SATS dipping in to the 70s or even 60s, so 93% is nothing – even in an older patient. (As and aside I should just report that my son no longer suffers in this way and is indeed as fit as several butcher’s dogs)
And then we get today’s contradictory messages.
That is only indicated for patients whose condition has progressed to quite a serious stage. In fact my understanding is that it is contra-indicated in patients with a milder (or earlier stage) illness.
Dr Conley’s statement on this : “’We’ decided that in this case the potential benefits early on in the course probably outweighed any risks at this time.”
Could it be that Trump is much sicker than we are being told? Or maybe Dr Conley’s primary qualification for his job is the ability to say without fail “Yes Mr President” – he after all reputedly allowed Trump to self-prescribe Hydroxychloriquine?
I know I am ranting a bit here, but it seems to me that there is a material possibility that Trump is significantly sicker than has been disclosed.
We won’t know the truth until either; we watch Trump cross the line to win next years New York marathon or we read his obituary in the Times.
I am no fan of Mr Trump, but I sincerely hope for the former outcome; we now know Eliud Kipchoge can be beaten and hopefully Donald will have plenty of time for training next year.
I generally think that the markets are better at assessing risk than the press, but I am surprised that the futures don’t appear to have reflected the uncertainty.
Thanks Gromley. Some shrewd observations there concerning his oxygen saturations. The dexamethasone treatment (if he's actually had it) is clearly not appropriate as it is only effective in patients suffering from the most severe phase of the illness with respiratory failure, characterised by an inappropriate immune response. Yesterday Mr Trump left hospital to greet his supporters and was seen waving through his car window, so he is evidently not in extremis. It seems his doctors are neither as honest nor as competent as they should be. This will make it hard for observers to discern what's really going on over the next few days. The VIX has fallen over since Thursday 2nd Oct when the news of the illness was released, so we are seeing actually less uncertainty this morning.
As you say Gromley, President Trump's SATS are reported to have fallen to 93. I understand some people who are seriously ill with coronavirus find that their oxygen levels can drop to 40% which is why they need mechanical ventilation and it is why around half of patients will die in intensive care. It makes 93% sound extremely mild by comparison.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54427390
Trump's political genius is spot on.
The working class conservative America will love this. Good speech.
