European Outlook Drama - Novice Politician Tries Novel Campaigning Angle: Get Out While You Can!

Friday, Oct 26 2018 by
3

I'm going to copy in here a post from my own blog, which is mainly transcriptions of cultural/political discussions that interest me. I'm a long-term subscriber to this site, and have written a couple of articles which I'm not absolutely red-faced at.. The interviewee is a very minor political figure, but to avoid controversy (if Delingpole isn't controversial) I've redacted her party. Hope it's amusing & interesting!


The very interesting Catharine Blaiklocktalking to James Delingpole,on the latter's podcast. JD is, as usual, eager for some practical tips on what to do with his savings. I thought this was an instructive talk because she does have a downright opinion, and practical advice, and has come to it from a full life which required present-mindedness and foresight.

JD. ..So. We were talking about markets, and you were amazing me with your.. I still can't quite work out how you knew how it was worthwhile getting into yen, whatever it was. You've obviously got an instinct for this kind of thing.

CB. Well I have been working in it for a while and it was relatively predictable. And what is happening now in the world is relatively predictable..

JD. Is it..?

CB. ..but you can tell people what you think will happen, but most people will not take the advice.

JD. Oh! Well tell me what's going to happen! I'd love to hear..

CB. Well what we've got at the moment is a number of big trends happening. The first one is a loss of confidence in governments. And that's everywhere.

JD. Yes. Durr! Why is that, I wonder?

CB. But that has really serious financial implications.

JD. [hesitantly] On bonds? No.

CB. Yes.

JD. Ah. Got it..

CB. And on interest rates.

JD. [cautiously] Riiiight..

CB. So even without a Corbyn government, we are going to face rising interest rates. And we are going to face government debt crises all over the world, as people decide they don't want to lend any government money.

JD. [more confidently] Right!

CB. That's already started. You can see that in Turkey and South Africa, and Argentina. All three of them, especially Argentina is likely to have its tenth default.. Er.. But Turkey is a great example. It's an example of Gresham's law. Have you heard of Gresham's Law?

JD. Yees. Bad money drives out good, is that?

CB. It applied to coins originally, but it applies now in that people are getting their money out, and people are getting their money out of Britain already. You realise that?

JD. No! I didn.. So how.. Right. So tell me more about that - where are they putting it?

CB. Well, they're getting out of.. this was raised last week, where somebody in the Labour party had said people were selling houses in London. I mean, London house prices have come down quite considerably at the top end, 15 to 20% already..

JD. That is quite a big amount.

CB. ..and, people are quite fearful of a Corbyn government. So smart money, which would be, Gresham's law, the good money, is already moving.

JD. Where's it going to? Switzerland?

CB. No. It's going into dollars. Because there are two trends happening. The first one is this loss of public confidence. So America is raising interest rates and tightening. But there's also shifts - while Europe is putting up taxes, and you can see it every single day. Today I think we had Hammond saying "Oh, all tax cuts were out because we're going to help Universal Credit, the NHS, we're going to have fuel.." So. While Europe is pushing up taxes everywhere, Trump has been lowering taxes. And so the other shift is from Europe into the US.

JD. OK. So that's going to boost the value of the dollar.

CB. Correct.

JD. But I thought Trump wanted to keep the dollar down..

CB. Oh, he would like to..

JD. So how's he going to do that?

CB. He won't be able to.

JD. [pauses] So, you're saying, "Buy dollars."

CB. Correct. I think the Pound will go below one.

JD. [impressed] That's quite a bold call.

CB. [matter of factly] Yes. And I think the Euro will go below its inception point. And I think the Euro will eventually break up.

JD. Yes. Oh well, I think we all agree on that one.

CB. Well, it's how it breaks up. It's not obvious how it breaks up. Because if you have peripheral countries falling off, then the stronger bits of the Euro will go up, not down. ie, effectively, and we're already seeing this in the European bond market, where we've got these enormous.. have you heard of something called Target 2?

JD. I've heard of it, I don't understand it..

CB. Target 2 is basically this sort of sloshing around.. It's a monetary system that equalises balances between banks at the end of the day. But the problem is, it's diverging.. Italy and Spain owe Germany a trillion Euros.

JD. [considers the idea] Right.

CB. And this is real money. And money is already flowing out of those countries into Germany. And the idea is that you'll get redemption in Deutschmarks, if  it falls apart. So a Euro is not quite the same as a Euro. An Italian Euro might not be quite the same as a German Euro.

JD. Right. Yes!

CB. And that's what breaks systems. Those type of stresses. And the ECB, unlike the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve, is run by a whole pile of countries who'll then say "Who's going to rescue.. this!"

JD. So who is going to rescue..?

CB. The only people big enough to rescue the ECB would be the Americans.

JD. And will they want to?

CB. Well that's a very good point. I rather doubt, under the current regime, whether they will, but of course this election and the mid-terms is so frightening in terms of what the Democrats are doing, in terms of violence ecksetra. I mean they really would like to bring the democratic system down I think. I mean there have been one or two people, Martin Armstrong who runs Princeton Economics, he believes this might be the last democratically-elected president of the United States..

JD. ..for why?? Because the Left is going to be so..

CB. Yeah. So violent, and powerful.. You did something recently talking about the entire media, the entire.. and companies as well.. this is the definition of fascism, is when you have companies and governments working together to overturn democratic systems.

JD. Well, it's certainly my view that were it not for President Trump, America would be pretty much lost by now. If Hillary had got in..



[from Wikipedia: "Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model is a theory that proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which is approximately π * 1000. 
In 1999, Japanese fraud investigators accused Armstrong of collecting money from Japanese investors, commingling these funds with funds from other investors, and using the fresh money to cover losses he had incurred while trading.. Armstrong was ordered to turn over $15 million in gold bars and antiquities bought with the fund's money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar.. Armstrong was released from Federal custody on September 2, 2011, after serving a total of 11 years.."
]



JD. ..Trump threw a massive spanner in the works.

CB. Yes, but I think, unfortunately, and this is really awful, is that I think it's counter-trend.

JD. [quietly] Oh really..

CB. I don't think he will, in the big picture, suceed and.. I wouldn't be doing what I'm doing if I didn't think that things were absolutely dire. I think we are looking at appaling consequences because when we add political violence to the economic stresses, that's when it really gets nasty.

JD. I see. It's certainly the case over here for example, that the people who should have held crony capitalism, Ponzi-schemeing, to account, ie the fiscally-responsible conservatives, actually went along with it as much as Labour did.

CB. Look, we've got the highest tax burden since 1969 at the moment.

JD. Under a Conser..

CB. ..a Conservative government.

JD. LOL.

CB. And I was speaking to someone who honestly believes that Corbyn will get in, and that apparently Corbyn is already taking advice from some top accountancy firms, as.. to.. you know, how to screw the rich. But the problem is of course that they don't just do that, they go down to everybody eventually. There's a likelihood that if you add this to these public sector debts, pension debts of Armageddon proportions, and by the way one of the reasons America is raising interest rates is to normalize the pensions, because that's the driver. I mean pensions simply cannot exist if they need 8% and they're in government bonds yielding 1%. But.. he was talking about things like exchange controls..

JD. Trump was..?

CB. No! Corbyn is. We would have exchange..

JD. Well that's a given, surely..

CB. ..controls, complete obliteration of inheritance tax allowance, second homes will be obliterated. You kow, we will just go down the scale. Because they will be screaming for money which they won't possibly be able to raise on the bond markets.. Yeah. It could be.. I think that we look at these combinations of.. It's the same as the Roman Empire.. I mean you've probably heard of Camellia Paglia [sic]..

JD. Yeah yeah, I love Camille Paglia..

CB. She comes to the same conclusions, as I do from the financial.. So you have for example.. I heard your podcast with Roger Scruton, he comes from a very conservative idea: I come from the economic, she comes from the sort of sexual, and you come to the same conclusion..

JD. It all connects.

CB. It all connects, and we're in an end-of-civilisation.. But I look at it from the financial.. If you take a 2 14 number from the Taxpayer's Alliance, that every family in Britain's debt and liabilities is £350,000.. That's the 2 14 number.

JD. What's a 2 14 number?

CB. 350,000 is how much the liabilities of the government are.. The real liabilities.

JD. [uncertain] Right..

CB. Per family.

JD. Oh, I see!

CB. Per. British. Family.

JD. 350,000.

CB. That's the 2 14 number.

JD. OK.

CB. The government debt is 9, 10 trillion and rising. I mean there are so many pension funds that just don't even appear in the accounts. That are completely unfunded. And the issus is this will cause a social crisis that's bigger than the French Revolution! You add this on top of the other crises, and I just don't see how you can solve it..

JD. Can you not give me a happy ending here? Um. Tell me what..

CB. It might be good for your business! You'll be able to run around and get, you know..

JD. No. Look, my plan is to get out of journalism, as soon as I can..



[..]



JD. ..my head tells me that if ever we get into a situation where XXXXXXX is in serious play, it going to be Armageddon. I mean, it means that the Tories will have totally  failed. The Tories who are still our best hope of a soft landing. If your economic plan ever comes to fruition, it's going to be after a terrible interregnum of Jeremy Corbyn..



[..]



JD. ..I mean, Catherine, you are a revival of the Roman tradition, where people go out, make their money, learn about the world, and then they come into politics, which almost nobody does these days.

So, tell me about your economic plan to rescue Britain.

CB. Well. There's lots and lots and lots and lots of parts to it, but the fundamental part has to be that we will go bankrupt if we carry on as we are. We simply will. With the pensions crisis, the NHS and all the other..

JD. You know, can I just tell you, you've lost the argument already. Because nobody buys into that, do they?

CB. No.

JD. And, what is going to make them realise it, other than the shock that's going to be too late to repair?

CB. Errm.. [pause]

JD. The bond markets? Maybe..

CB. Well. Unfortunately, generally, it does take an economic Armageddon to get change.

JD. A bit like Roger Scruton said, depressingly, that we need a war to wake people up.

CB. And somebody else said "Lets get Corbyn over quickly" so we can have a clear-out..

JD. That has been my view hitherto by the way. I have been known to say that.. Why don't the kids get a bracing taste of socialism, so they know what it's like to be Venezuela? And at least we'll have killed that for a generation..

CB. 'Cause what we've got at the moment is managed decline.

JD. Just like before Margaret Thatcher arrived.

CB. Literally. Just managed decline..



[..]



JD. ..So in terms of saving our arses, from the coming Armageddon, what do we do? Those of us who live in Britain. What measures can we take to protect ourselves from this horror?

CB. Personally?

JD. Yeah, personally.

CB. Sell assets in Europe. I mean, all of them. Get your children out of Europe, to Asia. I think the future is Asia.

JD. I've got one boy in Hong Kong, so that's good..

CB. And also the one thing that I tell young people, is.. think that the world will be very different. Look at the changes that have occured in out grandparent's live, in our lives. Do something that will be needed, because you don't know what's going to happen, and it's going to change. Massively. Doctors, nurses, be a bricklayer, be a plumber.. Be a gardener. Just don't do diversity studies..



[..]


Filed Under: Interviews, Market Outlook,

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