EVR.L - Reports Thursday 28th February, 2019

Friday, Feb 22 2019 by
10

EVR.L - Reports Thursday 28th February, 2019

Currently 550p a share, StockRank 99,Q 94, V 91, M 98, Yield 2018E 13.4%, No 1 on the StockRank listing.


I personally have a double tranche in this stock where I'm 10% up. I have some nervousness about being in a Russian controlled company, and some guilt for being in coal.


What do you think will happen to this stock on Thursday, where are we going, and are we going to be rewarded for the risk we take?


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EVRAZ plc is a steel, mining and vanadium business with operations in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, the United States, Canada, the Czech Republic, Italy, Kazakhstan and South Africa. The Company's principal activities include manufacturing steel and steel products; iron ore mining and enrichment; coal mining; manufacturing vanadium products, and trading operations and logistics. Its segments include Steel; Steel, North America; Coal, and Other Operations. The Steel segment is engaged in the production of steel and related products at all mills except for those located in North America. The Steel, North America segment is engaged in the production of steel and related products in the United States and Canada. The Coal segment includes coal mining and enrichment. Other Operations include energy-generating companies, shipping and railway transportation companies. more »

LSE Price
608p
Change
1.6%
Mkt Cap (£m)
8,640
P/E (fwd)
7.2
Yield (fwd)
8.6



  Is LON:EVR fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


34 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

wilkonz 4th Mar 15 of 34
1

Yes, it was the 590 year high that persuaded me to stick with EVRAZ (LON:EVR) - this stock bounces up and down in a range of around 120 pence. It will perhaps go up more this week when the ex-dividend date approaches. But it's volatile and I think we both have at least a 50% chance of buying back below 550 some time in the next couple of months. But I certainly wouldn't buy it whilst the price is rising fast. And I wouldn't rule out a price dip below 500 when all the hype dies down...

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UK_Investor_8888 4th Mar 16 of 34
2

Strongly concur, Wilkonz. I don't want to see a 590ish taken away from me.

My view is buy back at 500ish... I got on @ 495, saw lows of 450, got out at 555 (12%).

Its a long time (and a bit of Trump-Russia-Crimea-China risk) between dividends.

The one buy trigger I would watch for is any violence in The Crimea / Ukraine. A flare up there knocks EVRAZ share price back, US sanctions and condemnation follows, and 6 weeks later it is all forgotten about as EVRAZ operates and employs in The US too. (Forgive my cynicism please.)


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wilkonz 4th Mar 17 of 34
1

Quite so. My only indicator for buying is price. I don't have a specific figure in mind but something substantially below the 550 mark. The politics are just so much noise and everything is forgotten quickly as you say. It's correct to be circumspect with this stock and I'd want a good margin of safety before buying. Your figure of 500 seems prudent although I'd pay a little more unless I see any of the directors' selling a significant volume in which case I'd be right out fast.

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wilkonz 6th Mar 18 of 34
1

EVRAZ (LON:EVR) now 596 at time of writing. They've hit a new high, so statistically they should continue rising for a while. I've put on a cautious spread bet this morning with a limit at 630 and a stop loss at 580.

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bobdu 6th Mar 19 of 34
2

With the 30p drop from going xdiv the golden cross should form on Tues/Wed next week all things being equal.

Current div yield is around 15%, as the saying goes fwiw, nothing yields 8% so either this company is too good to be true or this can double from here

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daverawc 7th Mar 20 of 34

why the the drop of 30p the dividend is much less than that ?????
anyone have a clue

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HumourMe 7th Mar 21 of 34
2

In reply to post #455598

why the the drop of 30p the dividend is much less than that ?????
anyone have a clue


Possibly this:

5c810254b9e99Capture.PNG
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wilkonz 7th Mar 22 of 34

In reply to post #455598

The dividend for 7th March 2019 is actually 40 cents which is very close to 30 pence. See below.


RECENT DIVIDENDS
ANNUAL DIVIDEND HISTORY
Recent dividends paid or declared by Evraz plc:

Type Ex-div date Payment date Amount
Interim * 07/03/2019 29/03/2019 40.00¢
3rd interim 22/11/2018 21/12/2018 25.00¢
2nd interim 16/08/2018 06/09/2018 40.00¢
Interim 07/06/2018 22/06/2018 13.00¢
2nd interim 08/03/2018 29/03/2018 30.00¢
* Dividend has not yet been paid but has been declared by Evraz plc.

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UK_Investor_8888 7th Mar 23 of 34

In reply to post #455323

Please pardon my ignorance Bobdu:-

Could you explain to me about "the golden cross"? (Nothing to do with Jesus I presume!)

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wilkonz 8th Mar 24 of 34
2

My understanding of a golden cross is that it occurs when the 50 day MA of a share's price moves sharply above the 200 day MA. (Sometimes it's used for a 20 day MA crossing above the 50 day MA.) This can be used as a buy signal for traders - so to a degree it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. (I'm sure Bobdu will correct me if he means something different.)

There's a section on new golden crosses under 'Tools'.

PS I threw caution to the winds and bought up another small tranche of EVRAZ (LON:EVR) yesterday at 572.

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bobdu 11th Mar 25 of 34
1

Essentially that's it except both the 50ma and 200ma must be rising at the time of the cross. Will happen tomorrow.

Studies that just look at TA signals in isolation do just that and therefore the results are normally not that compelling. It would be nice if there were studies that combined ta with quants for a start as the results would show considerable outperformance imo

Anticipating the 13 EMA crossing 48.5 EMA can help with what I think is one of the perfect entry points for stocks with good fundamentals and good expected newsflow. In this case it has proven correct so far for EVR
References for further reading if you want:
http://etfhq.com/blog/2013/01/15/golden-cross-which-is-the-best/
And from stoco https://www.stockopedia.com/content/trading-the-golden-cross-does-it-really-work-69694/

Where can EVR go, perhaps 1200p which would take the yield down to around 7% (rough figures)

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wilkonz 11th Mar 26 of 34
1

Thanks Bobdu, I those additional criteria are important. EVRAZ (LON:EVR) is now at 589.4 which is around an all time ex-dividend high so it should rise fast from here. 1200? We shall see... I do hope so!

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UK_Investor_8888 12th Mar 27 of 34
1

I'm lacking faith... for no concrete reason! Still on the sides, meanwhile I topped up on PLUS.L at 800p on Monday (and over-exposed - 1105 to break even).

I would love to buy EVR.L on weakness.

Why is the market holding back? I think the Russian factor is the wildcard.

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wilkonz 12th Mar 28 of 34
2

I bought some more EVRAZ (LON:EVR) yesterday. Today we have an all time high and a golden cross. Statistically the price should go higher. If it weren't for the Russian factor I'd be buying more today. Instead I've gone for a spread bet with a tight stop loss. Not sure about Plus500 (LON:PLUS) - in the absence of any strong indicators I'm keeping well away from it.

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UK_Investor_8888 Tue 9:41am 29 of 34
1

I'm seeing a 6% drop today (not currently owning).

What's going on?

Looks like a large Directors Sale of Shares:-


https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/evraz-LON:EVR/news/evraz-plc-directorpdmr-shareholding-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20190319:nRSS2793Ta/

EVRAZ plc was notified on 19 March 2019 by Mr. Alexander Abramov, a director of EVRAZ plc, that he sold 8,470,900 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, held indirectly via Abiglaze Ltd. As a result of this transaction, Mr. Alexander Abramov's indirect holding decreased to 290,154,641 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, or 20.10% of current total number of voting rights attached to the shares of EVRAZ plc.

EVRAZ plc was notified on 19 March 2019 by Mr. Alexander Frolov, a director of EVRAZ plc, that he sold 4,229,100 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, held indirectly via Crosland Global Limited. As a result of this transaction, Mr. Alexander Frolov's indirect holding decreased to 144,889,067 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, or 10.0% of current total number of voting rights attached to the shares of EVRAZ plc.

EVRAZ plc was notified on 19 March 2019 by Mr. Eugene Shvidler, a director of EVRAZ plc, that he sold 1,206,500 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, held indirectly via Toshi Holdings Ltd. As a result of this transaction, Mr. Eugene Shvidler 's indirect holding decreased to 41,670,992 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, or 2.9% of current total number of voting rights attached to the shares of EVRAZ plc.

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wilkonz Tue 11:50am 30 of 34
1

A useful explanation. Thanks,. I was wondering what had happened. I hold a few of EVRAZ (LON:EVR) and it seems the drop has bottomed out at 595 pence at the time of writing. I won't sell just yet but I'm watching closely.

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UK_Investor_8888 Tue 12:26pm 31 of 34
1

I hope it holds for you... It might take a few more days for the markets, analysts, and media to notice...

Its not unsimilar to my PLUS.L world with its Director sales last Autumn causing an upset.

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donald pond Tue 12:35pm 32 of 34
1

I think this is different: the directors here are each selling around 3% of their current holding, so it is not as if they are no longer exposed to the company's fortunes. I had been watching EVR for weeks and was annoyed at missing out: this gave me an opportunity to get in below the price that institutions were buying for, so I did, at 588.

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UK_Investor_8888 Tue 1:13pm 33 of 34
1

Nice move DP!

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wilkonz Tue 2:10pm 34 of 34
1

In reply to post #459478

I agree with Donald. It's not quite the same as Plus500. The three sellers all keep the bulk of their shares. It's not unreasonable to release some spending cash once in a while, especially whilst the shares are doing well. And they've considerately all done it at the same time to get it out of the way before the next dividend falls due in June. After the last dividend EVRAZ (LON:EVR) dipped to 572 and they're now 599 (at this instant) so we still have a strong uptrend. I'm almost tempted to buy more... almost...

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