LON:EVR | EVR.L - Reports Thursday 28th February, 2019 | UK_Investor_8888

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22nd Feb '19 by UK_Investor_8888

72 comments 5984 reads

EVR.L - Reports Thursday 28th February, 2019

Currently 550p a share, StockRank 99,Q 94, V 91, M 98, Yield 2018E 13.4%, No 1 on the StockRank listing.

I personally have a double tranche in this stock where I'm 10% up. I have some nervousness about being in a Russian controlled company, and some guilt for being in coal.

What do you think will happen to this stock on Thursday, where are we going, and are we going to be rewarded for the risk we take?

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UK_Investor_8888

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72 comments

UK_Investor_8888

1st Mar '19

On the sidelines still. What troubles me is that it tests 570 then pulls back.

Three days running, it has opened around 553, someone has bought a large tranche, it goes up, and the next day it opens back around 553.

My other concern is the Results are historic, and we don't know what 2019 will bring: Russia, China, Trump... three wild cards!

UK_Investor_8888

4th Mar '19

On the sidelines… as EVR.L punches through 580. :-)

Zigged when I should have zagged. :-)

Can it break though 600 and hold, reach 650?

Its year high was 590...

The Dividend is Thursday 7th March, 2019... What happens on Friday?

William K

4th Mar '19

Yes, it was the 590 year high that persuaded me to stick with EVRAZ (LON:EVR) - this stock bounces up and down in a range of around 120 pence. It will perhaps go up more this week when the ex-dividend date approaches. But it's volatile and I think we both have at least a 50% chance of buying back below 550 some time in the next couple of months. But I certainly wouldn't buy it whilst the price is rising fast. And I wouldn't rule out a price dip below 500 when all the hype dies down...

UK_Investor_8888

4th Mar '19

Strongly concur, Wilkonz. I don't want to see a 590ish taken away from me.

My view is buy back at 500ish... I got on @ 495, saw lows of 450, got out at 555 (12%).

Its a long time (and a bit of Trump-Russia-Crimea-China risk) between dividends.

The one buy trigger I would watch for is any violence in The Crimea / Ukraine. A flare up there knocks EVRAZ share price back, US sanctions and condemnation follows, and 6 weeks later it is all forgotten about as EVRAZ operates and employs in The US too. (Forgive my cynicism please.)

William K

4th Mar '19

Quite so. My only indicator for buying is price. I don't have a specific figure in mind but something substantially below the 550 mark. The politics are just so much noise and everything is forgotten quickly as you say. It's correct to be circumspect with this stock and I'd want a good margin of safety before buying. Your figure of 500 seems prudent although I'd pay a little more unless I see any of the directors' selling a significant volume in which case I'd be right out fast.

William K

6th Mar '19

EVRAZ (LON:EVR) now 596 at time of writing. They've hit a new high, so statistically they should continue rising for a while. I've put on a cautious spread bet this morning with a limit at 630 and a stop loss at 580.

bobdu

6th Mar '19

With the 30p drop from going xdiv the golden cross should form on Tues/Wed next week all things being equal.

Current div yield is around 15%, as the saying goes fwiw, nothing yields 8% so either this company is too good to be true or this can double from here

daverawc

7th Mar '19

why the the drop of 30p the dividend is much less than that ?????
anyone have a clue

HumourMe

7th Mar '19

why the the drop of 30p the dividend is much less than that ?????
anyone have a clue

Possibly this:

William K

7th Mar '19

The dividend for 7th March 2019 is actually 40 cents which is very close to 30 pence. See below.

RECENT DIVIDENDS
ANNUAL DIVIDEND HISTORY
Recent dividends paid or declared by Evraz plc:

Type Ex-div date Payment date Amount
Interim * 07/03/2019 29/03/2019 40.00¢
3rd interim 22/11/2018 21/12/2018 25.00¢
2nd interim 16/08/2018 06/09/2018 40.00¢
Interim 07/06/2018 22/06/2018 13.00¢
2nd interim 08/03/2018 29/03/2018 30.00¢
* Dividend has not yet been paid but has been declared by Evraz plc.

UK_Investor_8888

7th Mar '19

Please pardon my ignorance Bobdu:-

Could you explain to me about "the golden cross"? (Nothing to do with Jesus I presume!)

William K

8th Mar '19

My understanding of a golden cross is that it occurs when the 50 day MA of a share's price moves sharply above the 200 day MA. (Sometimes it's used for a 20 day MA crossing above the 50 day MA.) This can be used as a buy signal for traders - so to a degree it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. (I'm sure Bobdu will correct me if he means something different.)

There's a section on new golden crosses under 'Tools'.

PS I threw caution to the winds and bought up another small tranche of EVRAZ (LON:EVR) yesterday at 572.

bobdu

11th Mar '19

Essentially that's it except both the 50ma and 200ma must be rising at the time of the cross. Will happen tomorrow.

Studies that just look at TA signals in isolation do just that and therefore the results are normally not that compelling. It would be nice if there were studies that combined ta with quants for a start as the results would show considerable outperformance imo

Anticipating the 13 EMA crossing 48.5 EMA can help with what I think is one of the perfect entry points for stocks with good fundamentals and good expected newsflow. In this case it has proven correct so far for EVR
References for further reading if you want:
http://etfhq.com/blog/2013/01/15/golden-cross-which-is-the-best/
And from stoco https://www.stockopedia.com/content/trading-the-golden-cross-does-it-really-work-69694/

Where can EVR go, perhaps 1200p which would take the yield down to around 7% (rough figures)

William K

11th Mar '19

Thanks Bobdu, I those additional criteria are important. EVRAZ (LON:EVR) is now at 589.4 which is around an all time ex-dividend high so it should rise fast from here. 1200? We shall see... I do hope so!

UK_Investor_8888

12th Mar '19

I'm lacking faith... for no concrete reason! Still on the sides, meanwhile I topped up on PLUS.L at 800p on Monday (and over-exposed - 1105 to break even).

I would love to buy EVR.L on weakness.

Why is the market holding back? I think the Russian factor is the wildcard.

William K

12th Mar '19

I bought some more EVRAZ (LON:EVR) yesterday. Today we have an all time high and a golden cross. Statistically the price should go higher. If it weren't for the Russian factor I'd be buying more today. Instead I've gone for a spread bet with a tight stop loss. Not sure about Plus500 (LON:PLUS) - in the absence of any strong indicators I'm keeping well away from it.

UK_Investor_8888

19th Mar '19

I'm seeing a 6% drop today (not currently owning).

What's going on?

Looks like a large Directors Sale of Shares:-

https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/evraz-LON:EVR/news/evraz-plc-directorpdmr-shareholding-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20190319:nRSS2793Ta/

EVRAZ plc was notified on 19 March 2019 by Mr. Alexander Abramov, a director of EVRAZ plc, that he sold 8,470,900 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, held indirectly via Abiglaze Ltd. As a result of this transaction, Mr. Alexander Abramov's indirect holding decreased to 290,154,641 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, or 20.10% of current total number of voting rights attached to the shares of EVRAZ plc.

EVRAZ plc was notified on 19 March 2019 by Mr. Alexander Frolov, a director of EVRAZ plc, that he sold 4,229,100 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, held indirectly via Crosland Global Limited. As a result of this transaction, Mr. Alexander Frolov's indirect holding decreased to 144,889,067 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, or 10.0% of current total number of voting rights attached to the shares of EVRAZ plc.

EVRAZ plc was notified on 19 March 2019 by Mr. Eugene Shvidler, a director of EVRAZ plc, that he sold 1,206,500 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, held indirectly via Toshi Holdings Ltd. As a result of this transaction, Mr. Eugene Shvidler 's indirect holding decreased to 41,670,992 EVRAZ Ordinary Shares, or 2.9% of current total number of voting rights attached to the shares of EVRAZ plc.

William K

19th Mar '19

A useful explanation. Thanks,. I was wondering what had happened. I hold a few of EVRAZ (LON:EVR) and it seems the drop has bottomed out at 595 pence at the time of writing. I won't sell just yet but I'm watching closely.

UK_Investor_8888

19th Mar '19

I hope it holds for you... It might take a few more days for the markets, analysts, and media to notice...

Its not unsimilar to my PLUS.L world with its Director sales last Autumn causing an upset.

donald pond

19th Mar '19

I think this is different: the directors here are each selling around 3% of their current holding, so it is not as if they are no longer exposed to the company's fortunes. I had been watching EVR for weeks and was annoyed at missing out: this gave me an opportunity to get in below the price that institutions were buying for, so I did, at 588.

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EVR.L - Reports Thursday 28th February, 2019

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UK_Investor_8888

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