It will be interesting to see what the impact of the current crisis will be on Thomas Cook's operational trading performance. Clearly, on the one hand, UK discretionary spending will come under major pressure but, to counteract that, I can see 2 effects:
1) Supply capacity is coming out of the market following the collapse of XL Leisure - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d8073a4a-812c-11dd-82dd-000077b07658.html
2) Indications are that holidaymakers were switching to package holidays in order to be financially protected in the event of a failure - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/3171511/Holidaymakers-return-to-travel-agencies.html.
"Holidaymakers are returning to traditional booking methods and visiting travel agencies again because they believe they offer more security during the economic crisis... The move back to travel agencies is significant. In the past two years, TUI and Thomas Cook, Britain’s two largest operators, have between them shut 250 shops".
