How to find companies with moats that are worth investigating
Seeing the conversations that have been stimulated by our recent stock research pieces, I thought it might be helpful to make this post as a forum to discuss promising companies that display moat-like characteristics. The scope can be international. Any comments or research ideas are welcomed.
At the moment, I have a list of candidates that is a hybrid of my own picks, subscriber suggestions and companies that qualify for various screens.
Below you'll find a quick refresher on economic moats followed by a compilation of recent notable activity in the moat candidates I've found so far.
Moat economics
Warren Buffett once said: ‘put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value.’ It sounds simple. The challenge lies in identifying and sticking with these companies.
This is partly because highly profitable firms attract competition. Capital is drawn to the areas of the economy that have the highest expected returns. These competitors often undercut the incumbent on price. As a result of this pattern, most highly profitable companies become less profitable over time.
When you dig down to the individual company level, however, you can find candidates that buck this trend by consistently posting profitability figures above the norm. The chances are, these companies have economic moats that guard their margins.
Pat Dorsey, originally of Morningstar, has done a lot of work into mapping out this simple but powerful idea. In The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing, he identifies five types of sustainable competitive advantage:
- Real product differentiation through superior technology or features
- Perceived product differentiation through a trusted brand or reputation
- Being the low-cost producer
- Locking in customers with high switching costs
- Locking out competitors with high barriers to entry or high barriers to success
Identifying companies with potential moats involves a lot more qualitative research than other investing styles. At some point, you have to ask both why a company earns such high returns and how long this dynamic might continue. A lot of reading company reports, thinking about strategy and industry, and reading between the lines can go into answering these questions.
Last week saw a flurry of activity in the set of companies I have so far identified. There were buybacks, director deals, major shareholder moves and more. I’ve listed some of the more notable announcements below.
Are these signals to conduct further research, or is it all just noise?
Director deals and major shareholders
Keeping on top of what directors and major shareholders are doing with a company’s stock can give valuable insights. Tracking the buys and sells of experienced professional investors is a great way of unearthing new opportunities. Companies that attract a high-quality shareholder base are also worth taking a look at.
In the past week:
- Miton bought a stake in Strix Group
- Philip Meeson sold some of his Dart Group shares (but retains a c36% holding). Standard Life Aberdeen increased its holdings.
- Stadium Capital Management declared a stake in ScS Group
- Miton acquired a 13% holding in Hostelworld
- Liontrust increased its holding in Bioventix
Buybacks
Buybacks can be a powerful signal to the stock market, although large conviction buys are more valuable than small, token gestures. Here are some of the companies that have been buying back shares over the past week, and the percentages they have repurchased.
- SSE bought back 118,761 shares (0.0114% of the company)
- Rio Tinto bought back 414,784 shares (0.0254% of the company)
- Auto Trader bought back 744,300 shares (0.0806% of the company)
- Diageo bought back 1,468,644 shares (0.0626% of the company)
Trading updates
There were a number of interesting trading updates to catch up on, notably:
- Rotork Q3 trading update
- Dart Group half-year results
- Sage Group full-year results
- Creightons half-year results
- Liontrust half-year update
- The Property Franchise Group trading update
- Focusrite full-year results
- Eckoh half-year results
Of this Motley Crew, Dart Group catches my eye (even though airlines are a famously fickle and risky area of the market to invest in). There is something about Dart Group that has generated fabulous returns for long-term shareholders and I want to know what it is.
Dart Group is topical. It has just released its half-year results and its shares are hitting new all-time highs as a result. There have been major moves in its shareholder base that are worth investigating. It has a fantastic StockRank profile and qualifies for multiple screens. And the demise of Thomas Cook could be a source of significant growth for the company over the next couple of years.
Finally, Ed wrote this piece nearly five years ago in which he questions whether we should get over our biases and buy Dart at its new all-time high... of 365p. Given what the share price has done since then, it seems reasonable to ask that same question today at c1,400p.
I’d welcome any contributions from other investors - either in the form of company suggestions, news flow or comments on Dart.
Disclaimer
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22 comments
Blackbird (LON:BIRD) seem to have a good moat and Covid-19 has accelerated cloud transformation across the world. They do online video editing. The secret sauce is they don't require masses of bandwidth and is ideal for fast turn around productions such as live events (sports, festivals, conferences and the like).
Waiting for them to produce some numbers right now. It has been highly loss making in recent history but it now has a number of blue chip clients signing up for its services and it seems to be being promoted by the three major cloud platforms (Google, Azure, AWS).
I hold.
Hi Jack, great article, thank you. I looked into Xeros a while back, seems to have a unique demonstorable technology/product that has the potential to become a moat but hasn't - important to figure out what at the surface appears to have this potential versus and signs and signals that indicate it will not fully develop the moat characteristics
Thanks Mick, I'm not familiar with £XSG. I think moats based on technology need careful consideration, as progress is so rapid in this field that obsolescence is much more of a risk. It could be a useful case study.
The following may be naive, but can you please help me to know how to identify a purchase or sale by an institution.
1. On Stockopedia you look at the Stock Report and, under ‘News’ look for a Form
TR-1: Standard form for notification of major holdings.
2. in section 2. Reason for the notification it includes “An acquisition or disposal of voting rights/ financial instruments” etc; but I can not see a simple ‘Buy’ or ‘Sell’.
Any guidance, please?
P.S. I understand Stocko will soon add a list of institutional shareholders in the Report, (ideally with details of dates of purchase or sale). This will be a very useful addition.
In anticipation, thanks.
I focus in on this section and compare the numbers:
Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached
3.98%
3.98%
32,502,716
Position of previous notification (if
applicable)
4.75%
4.75%
So that one, which reduced, would have been a sell.
Thanks, Humour.
Hi Lawman,
1. Yes, and this 'News' section is also found at the bottom of the StockReport. I find switching from 'All News' to 'Company Announcements' helps filter it down to just RNS releases such as trading updates and major shareholdings.
2. Unfortunately these forms just aren't as easy to understand as you would hope. You would think it would be simple to say 'X bought Y amount of shares' but often the only way I can tell is by looking at the move in % ownership towards the bottom of the form.
So taking this example of a TR-1 from Vodafone (LON:VOD), I can only tell that it's a buy because of the change in shareholding:
I agree these forms should be easier to interpret! We can write more on decoding RNS announcements if subscribers think it would be helpful.
That would be useful. Many are very technical, identifying those that have real meaning would be leave me less perplexed.
Thanks, Jack. I shall try your technique; although when we get the list of major institutional shareholders on each SR it will be better (cf. recent addition of directors’ buys/ sells, although it does not give a summary of each director’s total shares held).
You are more knowledgeable than I as to whether you can make an article out of RNS announcements: it can only help.
And if you want keywords with a negative weight, may I offer "transformative" ?
An excellent idea for a thread Jack. My own experience of looking for moats is that screens provide candidates but a lot of qualitative analysis is also required. I look forward to seeing the screening factors you select.
As for Dart (LON:DTG) I have looked at it several times but never pressed the buy button. Apart from the industry, the low operating margin and low yield have also been a deterrent. It has been a winner for holders though and for Stockopedia’s screens - my hat is duly tipped to both.
Cheers
Simon
"I'm actually interested in creating a tagging system that categorises the strategic advantages behind companies. i.e. you could tag stocks with 'network effect' and then screen using that tag to find the stocks that the community most agrees have that moat factor"
Not sure what this means, Ed?
Do you mean searching for key phrases ('lock-in', 'switching costs', 'economic moat' etc) within the RNS's of a selected Universe of stocks?
There's no mention of screening for moats in your article Jack. That would be one of the first places I'd look as strong moat companies have strong profitability metrics. My article that you linked to has some tips on this.
I'm actually interested in creating a tagging system that categorises the strategic advantages behind companies. i.e. you could tag stocks with 'network effect' and then screen using that tag to find the stocks that the community most agrees have that moat factor.
On a different note... this is one of the best books on moats that I know of. It's called 7 Powers. https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01MRLFFQ7
Yes, screening will be next week's focus Ed... Tagging is an interesting idea given the qualitative aspect of identifying moats.
One thing I've noticed is that often companies with moats are more open in their communication style (eg strategy discussion, outlook statements) with investors. Stylistically there is less bullshit in what they say.
One fund manager I spoke to suggested that high returns on capital, not needing to raise more capital and management being secure in their tenure meant that mgt felt more able to deliver bad news or talk about challenges.
This is certainly true of Games Workshop (LON:GAW)
Hence my long term project of looking at verbal communication rather than numbers. I like the Hostelworld (LON:HSW) turnaround plan, but I'm rather disappointed in how they have communicated with investors over the last couple of years.
https://brucepackard.com/just-...
The tagging system sounds interesting and let me know if you think I can contribute. It might just be a simple case of pulling out the key sentences from management discussion around words like "strategy", "competition" or "outlook".
One point that is worth thinking about - companies like Microsoft rarely talk about the competitive advantage that they enjoy, because they're worried about being seen as monopolies and being broken up by the regulators. Conversely, often companies with weak profitability like to claim that they are "number 1 at widget bashing" and do enjoy competitive advantages... just because management are indulging in wishful thinking (bit like claiming to have strong balance sheet).
Hence you need to read in between the lines, can't take management communication at face value.
I agree, screening can be a great starting point to identify candidates but the qualitative bit that comes after it is just as if not more important.
Anecdotally, I have found that truly long-term companies have a distinctive and unconventional tone to their statements. They can also have unusually high share prices. I think Graham Neary mentioned that latter point recently as well.
The whole concept of moats can be difficult and I would cite Games Workshop (LON:GAW) as a good example.
I know a bit about the gaming sector GAW work in - I assumed that they would have no moat as there are a wide variety of options and I thought companies such as Fantasy Flight and Hasbro would gobble them up, especially after GAW's PR disaster with Warhammer plus the fact those companies appear to have much better IP than GAW (such as Star Wars and Dungeons and Dragons).
But, I was completely wrong, they've gone from strength to strength - I can't see what their moat is, but they appear to have one. I guess it must be the cost for customers to reinvest hundreds of pounds in an alternative system, that and aliens.
Ed
Great idea! Please do this!
I'm actually interested in creating a tagging system that categorises the strategic advantages behind companies. i.e. you could tag stocks with 'network effect' and then screen using that tag to find the stocks that the community most agrees have that moat factor.
I spend most of my time looking for companies with these characteristics, I would be very happy to share my conclusions on this and would in return benefit from other members insights on the subject.
'I'm actually interested in creating a tagging system that categorises the strategic advantages behind companies. i.e. you could tag stocks with 'network effect' and then screen using that tag to find the stocks that the community most agrees have that moat factor'
Surely this is going away from the quantitative analysis on which the stock ranks are based and starting to introduce more subjective factors.
Jack,
In terms of the research process I contacted Ensemble Capital earlier this week, who claim to specialise in US company Moat selection and they emailed over their research analysis summary. A lot of Qualitative assessments and they are not keen on screens, which I personally think is a major weakness. Nevertheless a screenshot of their Moat selection/elimination scoring criteria is below. Further food for thought, which can be applied to Dart etc?
That's helpful Ian - I watched the video link you sent over as well. I agree that screening for persistently high return and profitability metrics is a pretty valid and time-effective first step, I'd like to go into it a bit more next week.
There is an ETF available in the USA called MOAT, based on Morning Star criteria some of which are murky/subjective. Just click on "composition" and Bob's your uncle! I suppose you could load them into a folio on Stockopedia if you have one available then sort. (I tend to chose the higher yielding ones).