I Read The News Today Oh Boy! 21-Oct-2019

21st Oct '19 by matylda

8 comments 914 reads

Morning all!

Bioventix ( Bioventix (LON:BVXP) ) – 3560p – £183m – PER 32

Results For The 12 Months To End June 2019 – Revenue up 6%, PBT up 1%, 2^nd Interim Dividend of 43p (36p) and a Special Dividend of 47p (55p).

I have been calling this as too expensive since it was about half this price, I still think it’s too expensive but, it always seems to do well, mostly based on future potential of antibody projects.

D4t4 Solutions ( D4t4 Solutions (LON:D4T4) ) – 213p – £86m – PER 15

H1 Trading Update – In-line assuming usual H2 weighting.

Tempted here but looks perhaps fairly priced, will be keen to see how FY actuals are, as I do quite like this, but never like an H2 weighting, even if it is “usual”.

Mattioli Woods ( Mattioli Woods (LON:MTW) ) – 665p – £178m – PER 16

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End September 2019 – In-line.

I reckon this is not going to move much higher until there’s some announcement regarding the use of the Net Cash.

Oxford Metrics ( Oxford Metrics (LON:OMG) ) – 92p – £115m – PER 25

Trading Update For The 12 Months To End September 2019 – Revenue to be in-line with PBT to be broadly in-line, Net Cash at £13.8m (£12.2m).

I reckon this is probably fairly priced around this level.

Trifast ( Trifast (LON:TRI) ) – 193p – £235m – PER 13

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End September 2019 – Markets remain challenging, expecting FY Underlying PBT of £22m (this looks like a 10% or so miss to me).

Is this factored into the price at present? Perhaps it is but, anyway, there’s not enough here to interest me further at the moment.

As always, all comment most welcome!

Unlock with Email

Unlock with Google

Already have an account?
Login here

MrContrarian

21st Oct '19

My morning smallcap tweet: Long-running farce "Quindell Hell" on City stage ends suddenly.

Image Scan Holdings (LON:IGE), Oxford Metrics (LON:OMG), Trifast (LON:TRI), Watchstone (LON:WTG), Osirium Technologies (LON:OSI)

Image Scan Holdings (IGE) FY trading very poor as flagged with rev down 32%. But order book £1.7m (£465k) mostly for delivery in H1.
Oxford Metrics (OMG) guides FY rev in line but adj pretax only broadly in-line with mkt expectations.
Trifast (TRI) H1 trading: the tough market has continued into Q2, especially automotive.
Watchstone Group (WTG) Slater & Gordon settles claim for only £11m of the £50m held in escrow. That's a great result considering what a pup S&G were sold.
Osirium Technologies (OSI) placing at 35p (1 3% premium). Also convertibles issue. Total raise £4m.

financekwalee

Good morning Mr Contrarian,

Do you think the settlement is the reason for the huge stock hike? @ Watchstone (LON:WTG) (+42.99%)

Asagi

appScatter shares delisted from AIM. They were suspended for six months following a planned RTO so hit the suspension deadline and are off. They joined AIM on September 5th, 2017.

Frontier Smart Technologies also goes following its merger with Science (LON:SAG)

Regards,

Asagi

john652

Hi Matylda,

I have an initial stake in £D4T4 and am waiting on some answers from investor relations/ceo, specifically on how they move to a PAAS model. If they can nail this then they become much more attractive with sticky recurring usage revenues. However... IR section contains no contact email with only the general ‘contact us’ email available, so far this has gone into the company’s junk box, twice.... they are now looking to get my email answered. For me , this is about 1 out of 10 for shareholder engagement so not encouraging! I will let you know the outcome if you are interested?

J

matylda

Please do, yes, rather poor to be honest, hopefully you will get a response and be able to update us all - Really like the space they are in but will still probably want to wait for FY actuals.

If you get a reply, you may want to mention Mello to them!

garbetklb

Hi John
I'd be tempted to ring up the brand new CFO and point this out!
Andy

25th Oct '19

Hello Matylda,

£D4T4 response has been received, and a quick response once I managed to get through.

The below is the response to my questions from the CEO & founder Peter Kear. Not sure on the 'director sales' answer but it is what it is. Recurring revenue is up 16% & the main Celebrus product is up 43%, they have a lot of cash, high margins & mention acquisitions, founder led and looks pretty good to me. I have posted in full, as I assume that's allowed here.

I'd appreciate your views too Matylda, if this is something that looks interesting to you.

What are the options to make Celebrus a PAAS service where recurring revenues become a bigger part rather than the lumpy license fees. If Celebrus is to become PAAS type platform could you please comment on the roadmap ?
We supply our software in any form that the customer requires. Many of our customers are large financial services companies who will use our software on premise for many years and as a result want to purchase perpetual licences that they will depreciate as a capital purchase over a 4 or 5 year period. As a result we are currently weighted to perpetual, however if you look in the last full year’s results page 6 you will see reference to a number of multi-year annual recognisable contracts closed in H2 last year. This will hopefully provide us with more of a balance between recurring and perpetual licence revenue in the future.

Are there any KPI’s on the number of customers you have for Celebrus & what like for like up-lift there has been over previous periods?
Read the previous reports and presentations on the investor section of our web site and you will see the uplift for Celebrus clearly shown on page 2 of (2018/19) full year presentation shows 43% growth in Celebrus revenues

You do not seem to split out recurring revenue from software maintenance. Could you please provide the % split and explain what the recurring is for?
We split out support and maintenance as can be seen on page 11 of the (2018/19) full year presentation

Could you please provide the split of revenue received from direct sales compared to partner produced revenue?

We do not provide this number but you can see from our annual report page 76 the revenues from our two largest customers (customers over 10% of revenue) which are both partners and therefore indirect sales. This gives a good indication of the split…

Are you looking to keep the chief data officer role now Matthew Tod has resigned?

As reported in the announcement we have re-allocated the function internally to our expanded team and will not be replacing the role

Could you please comment on the large director share sales recently, I would have thought purchases rather than sales given the confident outlook & relatively low financial ratios D$T$ are on?

The sales by directors were for various reasons, One is one of our non execs reducing his holding prior to his eventual retirement, another was reducing his risk of investment in one stock as the price increased, another was selling some stock for personal reasons, the rest were to pay for the options exercised. All stock went to institutions as there was sufficient demand.

Our main interest really is where are D4T4 on the journey to PAAS/SAAS and if possible given the nature of the software and it’s use.

We will continue to supply our software and our data platforms in any way the customer requires them in either on premise, paas or saas versions. If we restrict the customers to paas or saas we limit the use of our products considerably.

The market is driving towards “as a service” and we are experiencing a gradual shift. We will not pressure the rate of shift to our present and future customers at this time.

28th Oct '19

Thanks for taking the time to post that John - That all seems to make sense however, my concern here is still that all round growth forecasts are rather low. I see Revenue, PBT and EPS all <10% this year and next on a PER of 15 or so (with a token 1% or so yield). I would like to see how they use the Net Cash (of which there's a decent amount), an earnings enhancing acquisition would be my preference. I reckon I am happy to wait for now until I see some kind of kicker such as an acquisition or a good "(materially) ahead of" update.

I Read The News Today Oh Boy! 21-Oct-2019

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

About the Author

Matylda

8 comments

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...