I Read The News Today Oh Boy! 29-Mar-2019

29th Mar '19 by matylda

6 comments 1681 reads

Morning all!

Bioventix ( Bioventix (LON:BVXP) ) – 3600p – £185m – PER 29.3

Interim Results For The 6 Months To End December 2018 – Revenue and PBT up 24%, Cash at £5.5m (£5.6m last time), Interim Dividend up 20%.

I keep missing out here always thinking it looks too expensive. I guess I will just sit and watch it go higher as I always consider it too expensive!

Numis ( Numis (LON:NUM) ) – 255p – £271m – PER 11.1

Trading Update For The 6 Months To End March 2019 – Revenue expected to be -26% lower than last year – Challenging but pipeline stronger in recent weeks.

Too "lumpy" for me to get involved here again at present, possibly ever!

As always, all comment most welcome!

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About the Author

Matylda

Premium Member

6 comments

andrea34

29th Mar '19

I have a similar mentality to you, Matylda, with Bioventix (LON:BVXP) and it is not helped by the fact that the turnover is very small, even if margins are high and ROCE is astronomical. A PEG of 3 is not attractive, either. The statement "there is increasing evidence of a plateau in the downstream global vitamin D assay market" sounds like a mild warnings for some point in the future, I'm not sure how much of the turnover relates to vitamin D but I'm assuming it's fairly significant as it features much in the commentary.

Have a nice weekend, thanks for all of this weeks posts.

MrContrarian

29th Mar '19

My morning smallcap tweet: Fertile time for Concepta

Concepta (LON:CPT), Mobile Streams (LON:MOS), Renewi (LON:RWI), Parity (LON:PTY), Numis (LON:NUM), Hydrodec (LON:HYR)

Concepta (CPT) Boots to sell myLotus women's fertility and hormone testing kit.
Mobile Streams (MOS) H1 rev halved. Warns on H2. Blames developments amongst the telecom operators and increased regulations in INdia.
Renewi (RWI) Guides 2019 in line but 2020 EBIT around €25m lower (worst case) if no shipments of thermally treated soil from ATM. Dutch authorities require additional tests and may not allow the interim waiver to continue.
Parity Group (PTY) a framework contract for the placement of staff it has with the Scottish government is not being renewed. Guides rev hit of 10% but profit still in line since it is low margin work and better performance is rest of group.
Numis Corporation (NUM) recent trading improved but mkt challenging as stated in Feb so still guides H1 rev down 26%.
HydroDec (HYR) confident volumes & production will exceed its original expectations. US review of the Government's oil recycling strategy seen as hugely positive.

stepone

29th Mar '19

Vitamin D for year ending June 2018 was £3.4m from total sales of £7.9m, so, yes, definitely significant.

andrea34

29th Mar '19

Thanks for filling in the gaps, stepone :-) I definitely can't invest on this basis at the moment at this rating.

matylda

29th Mar '19

I have the following forecasts, based on a FInnCap 29-Mar-19 note...

Sorry it's so big, no expert in inserting images!

Anyway, on a PER of 30+ I just don't get it and probably never will - I guess my way of valuation simply doesn't work or apply here.

Will include this in my Monthly Parity PEG Price Report for April which I will post here in the next few days all being well.

Cheers!

stepone

29th Mar '19

One thing to notice is that up to now Bioventix have always beaten the forecasts. So, for year ending June 2018, the forecasts started at £6m revenue, then were increased to 6.3m and then 6.9m, and actual turnover came in at £7.9m (plus 700k backdated royalties). Turnover growth this latest half year was 24% and that's without any significant contribution from Troponin sales, which they expect to increase quickly.

The dividend forecasts exclude the specials - which are significant. Actual dividend for 2019 will be above last years 116p, and way above the 73p forecast.

The royalty model should keep revenues sticky in the long term and the high margins should keep the dividend payouts at a decent level. It's definitely not the bargain it was five years ago, but I am going to keep holding for a while yet.

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I Read The News Today Oh Boy! 29-Mar-2019

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Matylda

6 comments

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