Incidental stuff

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21st May '09 by emptyend

1294 comments 413271 reads

NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!

I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.

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About the Author

Emptyend

Premium Member

1294 comments

Isaac

31st Oct '11

Football is a results driven business as is the E+P business.....Wenger's luck has changed, Arsenal were on blistering form against Chelsea, an amazing game to watch over the weekend. Looks like they have turned a corner.......8 win's out of 9, almost like drilling several wells on the TGT field having one success after another.....

Surely it is Soco's turn to get back to their winning ways of finding some Oil? It has been 4 years since we have found a commercial Oil field, is our luck about to change in Africa?

I also think it will be prudent for management to indicate monthly cash flow generated so far since TGT production....

We really do need to find more Oil though, TGT is all well and good but the real money is made from finding the black gold....

AnonymousUser858

1st Nov '11

Isaac said "...the real money is made from finding the black gold...."

whilst on a different thread he calls for Soco to stop drilling in any location where there is less than 100% probability of success.

Funny thing the human mind.

Isaac

1st Nov '11

RG

It's pretty simple really. I am a shareholder, all I care about is a rising share price. All I care about is making money & right now the share price sucks ass.

I don't care who runs Soco as long as the share price goes up. For the share price to go up they need to find Oil.

Patience is thin, 4 years is a long time not to find Oil for an exploration business - You may think it's harsh me calling for their resignation but as a shareholder I want to see a return on my investment.

sirlurkalot

1st Nov '11

Please don't feed the trolls.

The best way to get people who you don't think contribute constructively to stop writing is to completely ignore what they write. Silence is the only way to demotivate trolls. Trolls' main purpose is to get people to react, so deny them that.

Fangorn

1st Nov '11

I think Isaac has some valid points but clearly, if he feels that negatively he should simply sell and move on.

Whilst I emphasise with some of his comments, Soco can't be expected to strike gold every drill - Oil E&P is a risky business, and the management's record over the last 6 years or so have been incredible - the value that they have produced for shareholders has been very rewarding.

Personally am here for the long game - rising production(and juicy cash flow) and the inevitable takeout at alot higher than current levels. Presumably this is why most investors are here?

Why are you still here Isaac?

Isaac

1st Nov '11

I don't expect every drill to strike gold, that is unrealistic. I do expect some degree of success over a 4 year period. That is a reasonable expection IMO.

4 years is a long time - so no one can accuse me of not being here for the 'long game'.

I am still here because management have YET to do a deal so I can realise my investment - The assets are worth more then the current share price so I can't justify selling here.

emptyend

1st Nov '11

The assets are worth more then the current share price so I can't justify selling here.

In that case, please shut up!

Managements cannot control share prices - they can just run the businesses and keep trying to add value. And that is precisely what they are doing.....as we will see in the fullness of time!

Isaac

1st Nov '11

ee

Find oil and I assure you the share price will go up. That is how the management control the share price. Simples.

Fangorn

1st Nov '11

I've just checked my records. I first bought these, although regretably I didn't hold them till now, at 33p/sh in 1999(march). As I recall, at their highs before the stock split, they were 20 odd quid. (I'm sure someone has a better handle of exactly what their highest point was.)

So over 11 years the stock went from 33p to 20 odd quid. Not a bad return at all. and certainly nothing to complain about just because the performance over the last four years hasn't mirrored the previous stratospheric rise.

Added to this Isaac, markets are currently in meltdown so stock appreciation is going to be difficult. At least we've no worries about a cheap opportunistic bid as happened at EO as Soco management have a decent stake.I ce4rtainly don't think giving management a hard time is warranted.

MadDutch

1st Nov '11

Fangorn, from memory the highest day price was around £24, and it spiked up to £25 intra day.

but then, my memory is not always reliable ......

MD

Fangorn

1st Nov '11

Ah 25 quid - phenomenal return then...so hardly surprising last four years it's been a tad less so.

Your memory is seemingly far better than mine! I tend to write most stuff down these days. (:

emptyend

1st Nov '11

Fangorn, from memory the highest day price was around £24, and it spiked up to £25 intra day.

Not quite right, I'm afraid. The intraday high was 2395 (or 2393 - I can't be sure). The shares were only above 2360 for two days - I know this because my valuation model at the time estimated value at 2360 .....and, with hindsight, I should clearly have trusted it more and sold!

MadDutch

1st Nov '11

There you are, Fangorn; if you want the accurate answer, ask ee!

MD

Isaac

1st Nov '11

So....estimates of total NAV are:

Cannaccord: 378p

Citi: 452p

Numis: 462p

BoAML: 498p

RBC: 561p

Analyst price targets - An average of £4.70

1.2mn shares traded with the price spending most of the day between £3-3.10. - Hardly illiquid.

At the interims 30 June 2011 Soco had a cash balance of $213.1 mn using todays exchange rate of 1.59572 USD that is £133.5mn.

Yet all they spent was 42,500 * 298.3171 pence per share = £126,784 i.e. a drop in the ocean compared to the cash on our balance sheet.

Yet we are readily prepared to spend MILLIONs of $ on wells in Africa and TGD trying and hoping we can find Oil when we already have assets that are worth significantly MORE then the current share price yet the management team lack the common sense of adding value for shareholders in what is a very low risk way of doing.

And what makes me even more angry is the business is generating significant cashflow and thus the cash balance is higher then stated above.

So I can't find ANY reason to justify why there is not a more aggressive buy back of shares.

I don't support any acquiistions, all it means is higher salaries for management in the much enlarged company which I totally dislike.

FOCUS YOUR MINDS, the value is in VIETNAM. BUY BACK cheap shares and add value using a low risk method.

Why are these people being paid HUGE sums of money year in year out? Trust me if I did'nt perform for 6 months, let alone 4 years in my role I would have been sacked. I don't care about past performance and how much the share price has gone up in that period & I care even less about the stakes management have.

All I care about is I have a significant Investment in this company and I want to see a decent return by realising the value in Vietnam.

Isaac

1st Nov '11

emptyend - 1 Nov'11 - 16:54 - 7390 of 7402

though I'm sticking to my £6+ for the reasons I alluded to on S'pedia today.

anteos - 1 Nov'11 - 18:05 - 7397 of 7402

disappointed with the well result, but hardly unexpected. 43k is a paltry amount. I bet some of you guys buy more than this when the SP falls.

How do these comments above reconcile with the statement below from ADVFN?

emptyend - 1 Nov'11 - 18:05 - 7398 of 7402

There is no point in being aggressive when there is no volume there at the price!

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=14382883&from=7380

We agree that the management understand the valuation of the company better then anyone else including ee? Agreed.

So if the shares are really worth £6+ like ee keeps banging on about for yonks now, why was'nt the management prepared to buy more aggresively in the market today?

£3-3.10 is ludicrously cheap if the shares are worth £6+ surely so why on earth would you not buy aggresively in the market when there is liquidity?

I just find it crazy they only bought back less then 4% of todays volume. Just totally bonkers when according to ee they are getting 2 for 1.

It really makes me question, is the management interested in selling up Vietnam in the near term?

I SERIOUSLY want clarification of exactly what their strategy is because right now I am starting to lose confidence in the strategy indicated on their website.

They have a development project in Vietnam with supposeldy loads of upside from TGD, they have an early exploration play in Africa which has'nt lived up to expectations and they keep indicating in their statements that they are looking for acquisitions!!!

I don't know about others but I am SERIOUSLY concerned with their motives of holding the large cash pile, it makes me think they could be looking to piss more of it away on drilling wells that could potentially come to notthing simply by acquiring a company with acreage to drill in a different frontier.

I think the management is lacking FOCUS on their prime asset which is VIETNAM and that really concerns me IMO.

emptyend

1st Nov '11

Where are the men in white coats when they are needed? Sheesh!

TomKe

2nd Nov '11

Not a great day. It is always better when the RNS's announce that oil has been found.

It's not very pleasant to see chunks of my inconsiderable fortune disappear. I met a petroleum engineer at my badminton club. Her advice was to always sell before the drilling result. I look forward to trying this as a trading strategy when I no longer have to work as I suspect that she might be right.

I'm not happy with the run of bad drilling results and I would be a lot happier if they found a major to partner with them to have another go at TGD.

TomKe

djpreston

2nd Nov '11

Lordy Isaac, you should really watch your blood pressure you know, else you won't be around to enjoy the fruits of Soco's management's labours.

mangotree

2nd Nov '11

According to Google Finance the closing price on 20th September 2007 was £23.95.

http://www.google.co.uk/finance/historical?cid=668523&startdate=Sep+1%2C+2007&enddate=Oct+1%2C+2007&num=30#

MT

emptyend

2nd Nov '11

Thanks for the confirmation - so 598.75p in today's money.

Soon be back there again..... ;-)

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Incidental stuff

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Emptyend

1294 comments

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