Incidental stuff

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21st May '09 by emptyend

1294 comments 413271 reads

NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!

I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.

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About the Author

Emptyend

Premium Member

1294 comments

rhomboid1

30th Nov '11

Issac

Nothing in the highlighted quotes supports your extrapolation , the first quote could reference TGD for instance!

And the second quote is motherhood & apple pie as far as i'm concerned for an E&P

..as to whether TGT is sold pre drilling TGD I trust mgt to do the required decision making , they've made me a sizeable sum thus far.

Regards

TomKe

30th Nov '11

Hi Issac,
If you do not trust the Directors then you should sell. If you do trust the Directors then please stop trying to nit-pick each comment they make. This board has deteriorated into a conversation where the rest of the contributors try to reason with your 'concerns' and 'observations'.

My view is that it is similar to the conversation you would have with someone on a ledge threatening to jump with the rest of the contributors trying to talk you out of jumping. I have witnessed the conversation a number of times now and still you come back with the same concerns.

If you want to jump perhaps it might be better for you if you jumped.

TomKe

Isaac

30th Nov '11

TomKe

I will 'nit-pick' if I wish. If you choose to write positive comments on what you like then that is your decision.

No Investment is perfect - I choose to highlight my concerns.

I like to look at my Investments from a sceptical view point & want to look for weaknesses and challenge my own reasons for holding, it keeps me on my toes and not complacent.

The management must perform, end of.

snaj

1st Dec '11

"end of."

If only!

emptyend

1st Dec '11

Jump, jump!

You always have a choice - you can sell.

MadDutch

1st Dec '11

He probably has sold.

But he will stay here, Stockopedia is his ranting platform. Feeding the need to seek attention.

That is why I do not read his posts.

MD

Isaac

1st Dec '11

MD

Get the price to £6 and I will sell and leave well alone.

Unfortunately. I have no plans to sell here at all - my holding here dwarfs my portfolio. And I am glad you don't read my posts, as It's one less person to respond to.

Spurticus

1st Dec '11

Going back to the Myanmar references, this is old, but perhaps relevant:
http://english.vietnamnet.vn/politics/201004/Joint-statement-on-VietnamMyanmar-cooperation-released-902397/

Myanmar vowed to create mutually-beneficial conditions for the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) to explore and produce oil and gas offshore Myanmar. Myanmar also agreed to consider the proposal by A.S.V. Holdings to explore and exploit oil and gas in Myanmar.

Maybe any bid involvement there might be a continuation of the PV relationship (?)

Regards,

Spurticus (somewhat less than enthusiastic about Myanmar dealings)

Isaac

1st Dec '11

This comment has been moderated

Isaac

1st Dec '11

This comment has been moderated

Fangorn

1st Dec '11

Jesus Isaac, there's no need to be so personal.

Perhaps EE just can't be arsed to do a portfiolio review because there are far too many people who take such opportunities to snipe....

I would've thought you'd be far more interested in the performance of your own than someone elses anyway - I know I am.

You have many stock specific valid points but you do yourself no favours will all the "noise" you make and the rather confrontational stance you take to specific individuals/companies.

As regards Soco, value will out(and most long term investors have had an incredible run over the last decade whether or not they sold at the 24pound peak or not)

Patience will be rewarded,and in the interim, just think of the cash flow :)

Isaac

1st Dec '11

This comment has been moderated

kenobi

7th Dec '11

I know it's only of passing interest, and probably just sabre rattling but just for the record
Hu Jintao tells China navy: Prepare for warfare

"Analysts say Mr Hu's comments are unusually blunt, and are likely to be aimed at the US and Beijing's rivals in the South China Sea.

Both the Philippines and Vietnam have repeatedly accused China of overt aggression in the region.

They are among the nations claiming sovereignty over islands in the sea in the hope that there could be oil and gas deposits there."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-16063607

macroeconomix

7th Dec '11

I thought we'd already been over this. The disputed waters don't encompass anything Soco is involved in, which are in proximity to the SE of Ho Chi Minh City i.e. West of the disputed deeper waters of the south China Sea.

I think it is unlikely that China will have ambitions to become an expansionary empire, but they will want to defend their interests, and maybe even spend their soon to be worthless foreign reserves too to acquire real producing assets. No point in blowing stuff up, if you can do deals.

kenobi

7th Dec '11

macro,

I wasn't suggesting that the soco assets were in the disputed zone, not at all, however I would rather there not be a dispute at all. If something happened and it turned into a shooting war, who's to say how it might end ?

If nothing else it's got to be a consideration to any potential buyers (unless they're chinese I guess !)

K

kenobi

7th Dec '11

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201112071506435480T&fe=1

only $54.6 M of the convertible bond left outstanding,

I wonder what the value of that is at todays market prices ?

Not seen any more share buybacks so I assume above 300p they will just leave it and buy on dips below that price.

K

emptyend

8th Dec '11

I wonder what the value of that is at todays market prices ?

That is a very good question - and I have asked it twice with no response. Unlike with the shares, there is no obligation to report the prices paid.

To all intents and purposes, the company wil represent the only bid in the market for these bonds - there are far too few outstanding now for any semblance of secondary market liquidity. Accordingly, any convertible holder wishing to sell out prior to May 2013 will find that the price is effectively what the company wishes to pay. I have little doubt that the brokers are working hard to dig out other holders, but some may prefer to hang on. There will also be a clean-up provision in the bonds, enabling repurchase to be forced in the event that there becomes less than 10% (or whatever is specified in the docs) of the original amount still outstanding. I doubt they will get to exercise that - but it would be a nice option to have if they got to the trigger point in a couple of months.

Not seen any more share buybacks so I assume above 300p they will just leave it and buy on dips below that price.

I wouldn't make any such assumption. Some of the purchases have been up to c.307p already. The much bigger issue though is that trading volumes have often been trivial and it simply isn't worthwhile stepping in unless there are decent volumes of stock on offer. There are also price and volume constraints on what can be done and these have been binding on a few days in the recent past.

Also, on the "incidental" theme, today's news from Cairn will be of some relevance.....not only will some of the $3.5bn be looking for a sector home but the structuring of the return of cash to shareholders may prove to be a useful pointer to the structuring of any future return of cash to shareholders in SOCO International (LON:SIA), given the close board links between Cairn and SOCO. Those for whom tax considerations may play an important role (dj?) may wish to see if the Cairn structure ticks all their boxesin due course - and lobby if it doesn't.

kenobi

8th Dec '11

I wonder what the value of that is at todays market prices ?
That is a very good question - and I have asked it twice with no response. Unlike with the shares, there is no obligation to report the prices paid.

>> does the bond have a ticker that can be looked up ? that should give a reasonable estimate I guess.

The bonds pay a 5% divi more or less, it might be 4.5, so I guess if they have cash earning not much and the bond trades at any kind of discount, then they might as well buy these back. The additional consideration is that the bond has it's maturity date, where the company have to buy them back, so they should be accumulating cash to fund their repurchase, (haven't had a coffee yet so I don't recall the terms but it's this 2012 or 2013 isn't it ? ).

I wonder what the discount is, I recall they can only be bought in 100k chunks, but if the yield is now higher due to a discount, perhaps its not a bad proposition for a retail investor (given that cashflow makes the coupon and repayment pretty straight forward).

Interesting info re cairn, I don't know much about them, they're an explo company too though aren't they, ? they wouldn't be interested in buying the vietnam assets, might they be interested in TGD ?

k

kenobi

8th Dec '11

macro,

another consideration about this Chinese position could be that you are absolutely right that much easier to acquire the assets, however, much easier to get them if potential competitors are put off by a bit of sabre rattling,

K

loglorry

8th Dec '11

Hi Socophants

Does anyone know what price Soco are buying back the convertible at? I'm a bit puzzled as to why they would buy back the convertible over the ordinaries. The embedded call on the convertible to my knowledge is out of the money and with a coupon of 4.5% it presumably is trading at a discount to par. This means a buy back below par for cancellation presumably books an instant profit.

However it seems strange that if they are buying back at say 90% this is preferable over buying back equity. The equity is trading on a free cash flow multiple of about 2-3x so it would make a lot more sense to buy that and leave the convertible outstanding.

One unpalatable explanation might be that the company doesn't rate its stock as highly as some here. If they did then the buyback should surely be directed to the stock not the convertible.

It might also be the case that the convertible was purchased at a much bigger discount but since the RNS does not state what price they paid it is hard to know.

Anyone able to shed some light on this?

I do realise they have been buying back stock too but the firepower seems to be mostly directed at the convertible just now.

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Incidental stuff

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Emptyend

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