Incidental stuff

-->

21st May '09 by emptyend

1294 comments 413271 reads

NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!

I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.

Unlock with Email

Unlock with Google

Already have an account?
Login here

About the Author

Emptyend

Premium Member

1294 comments

Spurticus

19th Dec '11

Here's some Xmas trivia:

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7NJ3U820111219?sp=true

- Vietnam's PV Oil offered two 300,000-barrel cargoes of Te Giac Trang crude for Feb. 10-16 and Feb. 21-27 loading, one parcel less than the previous month as the month is shorter. The tender will close on Dec. 23, with bids valid until Dec. 26.

Spurticus

loglorry

19th Dec '11

Is the answer 21.5K/bpd ? Looks a bit light to me too !

emptyend

19th Dec '11

My point in my original rant was simply that if an E&P company finds it has more money than it needs for E&P it should return it direct to its shareholders.

I think you'll find that this is precisely what is being planned - but, thanks to the buying back, they should be able to return a bit more than would otherwise have been possible.....

In other words, there is a very clear purpose behind the buying-back.....it isn't just a random buyback programme in substitution for paying dividends (as is often the case elsewhere).

Spurticus

19th Dec '11

300 / 14 = 21.5? :-)

Don't forget weekends, and flaring, and... er...er..

kenobi

20th Dec '11

another 100K today,

but more interesting, tomorrow is the 21st Dec, the expected date for well results

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112120700147445T

history tells us it is unlikely to be tomorrow, but probably soon after. Who knows when we might here with holidays etc ahead? As others have suggested, whatever the result it could present a buying opportunity,

K

kenobi

22nd Dec '11

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201112221631455388U&fe=1

tgt still at 31k per day,

unfortunately plugged and abandoned on MM1,

merry christmas everyone,

K

kenobi

4th Jan '12

mike watts purchases 1495 shares as part of a plan, not sure why that would be so, since we're not in a closed
period, but never mind

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201201041332159883U&fe=1

also yesterday more purchases, 35,000 the first time since Dec 20th.

Interesting to see how the price reacts as tgt production increases, surely if over the next 3 months it cruises to 55k and beyond as planned, that should send a strong signal to the market.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201031716199356U

K

emptyend

4th Jan '12

I believe he has taken directors fees in shares ever since joining the board.

jseth123

4th Jan '12

I had been pondering on ADVFN potential reasons for a halt to the buy back - so I'm glad to see it resume yesterday and today. Seems it was just a Christmas hiatus as you (ee) and others had suggested.

Cheers

kenobi

4th Jan '12

another 65k today,

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201201041708530145V&fe=1

Spurticus

5th Jan '12

Sharing joyfulness (but uncertainty as to whether this is really about TGT or CNV):

http://www.hlhvjoc.com.vn/hoanglong/en/news/content/370/te-giac-trang-field-reached-120-target-of-2011-production.html

On 31st December 2011, the CNV Field reached 128% production target of crude oil in a safety manner and without any lost time incident. This production was to ensure the revenue for the project and partnering investors, especially in a favourable trend of crude price currently.

Sharing joyfulness with HVJOC on the occasion of great achievement...

Spurti

emptyend

5th Jan '12

Both fields exceeded their production targets for the year. CNV hit theirs in around September and TGT hit theirs around the end of November. I forget the exact dates, but they were discussed somewhere on the boards in early Dec.

Lets hope that the VN Government sets very much more taxing production targets for PV in 2012, so that the jobsworths have to start thinking more commercially instead of just looking to tick their targets boxes.

extrader

5th Jan '12

Hi ee,

What's to stop VNG from quietly letting PV know that it wishes to keep production levels lower than potential, in the national interest ?

The Hoang Loang (sp ?) JV benefits, AIUI, from a very favourable tax regime. There might be a case to be made for encouraging higher host govt. revenue in other fields , with the added benefit of keeping Soco VN price down on 'production-related-issues' and then buying it up on the (relative) cheap further down the road, with more of TGT's reserves unexploited.

I'm not familiar with the detail of PSA's, but if the host govt wants to 'drag its feet' and does so discreetly, is there much in practical terms that a foreign oilco can do ?

ATB

emptyend

6th Jan '12

These thoughts have of course already occurred to me. I imagine we may find out.

Of course the Thai Government is also not disinterested, via PTTEP.

It is a mistake, though, to think that the Government of VN can pull all the strings of its various state-owned companies. For example, there are clear tensions between the State Electricity and Gas suppliers on the one hand and Petrovietnam (in its various guises) on the other....

Recently revealed statistics show that several State economic groups were in hazardous financial condition in the recent past due to loss-making businesses and inefficient investments.
Apart from the debt-laden Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group (Vinashin), the most typical example should be Vietnam Electricity (EVN) with the ratio of debt to equity at 4.22 as of end-2010, said a report of State Audit of Vietnam.......

According to State Audit of Vietnam, as of end-2011, the liabilities of EVN have totaled over VND239.7 trillion, in which short-term debts are worth nearly VND65.5 trillion, or 27%, and long-term ones worth some VND174.2 trillion. Therefore, the Government audit agency said EVN’s business was strongly dependent on loans and payable arrears.
As of end-2010, EVN still owed Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) some VND4.01 trillion and Vietnam Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) VND855 billion. As of end-June 2011, when the audit was done, the figures shot up to VND8.86 trillion and VND1.21 trillion respectively.

According to the report of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the State economic sector accounts for 60% of the bank credit, contradicting the figure of merely 16% informed by Governor Nguyen Van Binh of the State Bank of Vietnam at a seminar held by Nhan Dan newspaper.
Transparent data on the performance of Vietnam’s leading State economic groups have always been demanded at multiple forums, especially at the National Assembly. There is the requirement that State groups must publicize the figures like listed securities firms do, but such a requirement so far has not been adhered to.

......so one shouldn't pretend that there is some sort of machievellian grand plan at work. There is considerable tension between the different arms of the state (even the different arms of PV) and there is very much a limit to how much foot-dragging can be done (and particularly for how long), especially in an environment where the government remains under pressure to both drive domestic growth (for which power and gas supplies are an existing constraint) and relieve FX pressure on the dong. It would be difficult to justify low targets for 2012 when 2011 targets were beaten so easily and when the country plainly needs to generate as much hard currency as it can!

Meanwhile, TGT crude seems to be getting well-accepted in the market:

Two cargoes of February-loading Vietnamese crude Te Giac Trang, a new stream that came online in August, traded at a record high premium buoyed by robust demand for low sulfur crudes on improving refining margins.
Also a factor is increased demand from China, as the world's second-biggest oil consumer cut imports from Iran because of payment issues, industry sources said Tuesday.
PV Oil was heard to have sold two clips, at 300,000 barrels each, of the crude for February 10-16 and February 21-27 loading to oil majors Shell and BP at a premium of $6.50-$7.00/barrel to the Minas formula, almost doubling premiums achieved on January clips.
The Minas formula takes the average of Platts and Asia Pacific Petroleum Index Minas crude assessments.
PV Oil last sold three clips of Te Giac Trang crude for January loading to an oil major and a refiner at a premium of $3.50-$4/b to the Minas formula.

ps...Minas now seems to be heading for $7 over Brent, so that would make TGT crude at getting on for a $14 premium to Brent - which isn't to be sniffed at.

loglorry

6th Jan '12

300,000 being delivered every 7 days looks like nearly 43K/bpd to me. If they agree the price for 300,000 barrels does that mean they have to deliver that much?

Log

Spurticus

6th Jan '12

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E8C63AA20120106?sp=true

Looks like nothing happened for SOCO with the Myanmar tenders (unless perhaps a minority interest somewhere in the list?).

Spurticus

MadDutch

6th Jan '12

Hi Spurticus,

Your TGT or CNV question is answered in the links you provided;

"“In 2011, Hoang Long Joint Operating Company commenced production of the Te Giac Trang Field 18 days ahead of contract schedule and achieved 100% of its production target on 10 December 2011; Hoan Vu Joint Operating Company also achieved approximately 120% of its Crude Oil target for production from the Ca Ngu Vang Field” said Dr. Ngo Huu Hai, General Manager in a brief welcoming speech."

MD

emptyend

6th Jan '12

Good spot, Spurticus.

I wouldn't be surprised if they turned out to be a junior partner in these one or both of these two blocks:

PTT E&P Thailand Win Resources PSC-G/EP-2

....perhaps along with PV? I imagine that would be RNSd eventually (if there was anything in that guess!)- though the political map is still a moving feast, with the Foreign Secretary visiting at present.

...though they are all onshore blocks and I guess shallow offshore would be more likely?

ExTownie

6th Jan '12

There might be a case to be made for encouraging higher host govt. revenue in other fields , with the added benefit of keeping Soco VN price down on 'production-related-issues' and then buying it up on the (relative) cheap further down the road, with more of TGT's reserves unexploited. - extrader

I can see how that might work if the target company needed the cashflow to avoid a placing, or if only a small amount of stock was held or controlled by management, but surely in SOCO's position they aren't going to win that game? They may delay SOCO's sale, but I assume management are prepared to sit it out and either continue to buyback stock or possibly even start to pay dividends....ET

MadDutch

7th Jan '12

DowJones reports Morgan Stanley’s latest downgrades, for Enquest from 117 to 108p, Salamander from 254 to 250 and Soco from 350 to 335p. Their reason for Soco is “no upcoming exploration or appraisal catalysts.”

It would be easy to comment but ee can do it much better. He can also spell ignorrant iddle, useloss and lazie better than me!

MD ;-)

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Take a free trial

Facebook Twitter Youtube Instagram RSS

This site cannot substitute for professional investment advice or independent factual verification. To use it, you must accept our Terms of Use, Privacy and Disclaimer policies.

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Take a free trial

Incidental stuff

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

About the Author

Emptyend

1294 comments

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...