NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
It was Remington, in fact.
Same thought re Shell had just occurred to me, ET ....
...maybe we need another Remington product to provide some encouragement?
;-)
Perhaps Shell being outbid on the Cove front might turn out to be a blessing in disguise and they'll subsequently turn their eyes here. :)
Are there examples of integration /owning both upstream and downstream as a policy by independant Majors?
Chevron may do this with heavy oil.
I did think the majors kept these things separate but could be wrong,plus the worlds changing.
I recall looking at heavy oil and concluded it was advantageous to own both the upstream and downstream(upgrader) to make it viable.
One would have thought that rather than buying a company to get your crude for a refinery feed you would upgrade the refinery to take a lower quality /more readily available slate?
However that takes time,longer than buying a company,and if your slate varies due to political uncertainty....
FH
Good points. I would think there is some chance that the majors will be re-examining their strategies now, what with the Iran/Syria problems on top of others and with BP about to deal (or not) on their Gulf liabilities. I certainly don't think that one can just assume that strategies are stable at present! Whatever the case, the price proves that there are significant refining attractions to TGT crude...and that is no bad thing, especially given that supplies are politically stable and the assets are long-lived.
".....especially given that supplies are politically stable and the assets are long-lived."
And the owners are willing....
http://af.reuters.com/article/drcNews/idAFL5E8E1BEC20120301
KINSHASA, March 1 (Reuters) - British oil firm Soco International said on Thursday it has been given permission to carry out aerial surveys of a Congolese oil block where exploration was suspended last year due to concerns over environmental damage.
Good news, only aerial surveys, but it's a start,
K
Old news re the aerial surveys. This was in the IMS in November:
The Company's initial environmental and social impact assessment ("ESIA") was submitted to the Groupe d'Etudes Environnementales du Congo in March 2011 and, following a period of review and consultation with stakeholders, including various departments within the Government of DRC, a final ESIA was submitted in May and was later approved. An aeromagnetic and aerogravity survey will be conducted early in 2012 with a seismic programme over Lake Edward to follow. The exploration licence was granted by a decree signed by the Hydrocarbons Minister on 26 October 2011.
No doubt the park will be trying to get the hat passed round the credulous yet again, even though the aeroplanes (and any compressed air seismic surveys to follow on the lake) will all be tens of miles out of earshot of any gorillas.
http://www.mydigitalfc.com/economy/india-keen-expanding-oil-gas-explorations-vietnam-365
I can think of a company that fits the bill! Wonder if they can... :)
The latest list of insitutional investors (shown on Ft.com) is of some interest...not least because it includes the Norwegian Oil fund, with over 2%:
35.53m 10.07% 11.89m 3.52% 8.26m 2.44% 2.67m 2.29% 7.49m 2.15% 6.78m 2.00% 4.84m 1.43% 4.74m 1.40% 3.39m 1.00% 3.28m 0.97%
It makes me laugh to see the stock price up nearly 5% today the day before results are out. It was obviously a mistake to wait years in this stock for it to climb one just needed to buy the day before results. So much for long term buy and hold. I have a feeling on an annualised basis those buying today will make a very good return by tomorrow.
I just hope the results don't disappoint as some of this hot money might leave as fast as it has arrived.
Log
It makes me laugh to see the stock price up nearly 5% today the day before results are out. It was obviously a mistake to wait years in this stock for it to climb one just needed to buy the day before results.
That is copyright of hindsight-trading.co.uk
Whilst there is considerable evidence that lots of other people are fools, it takes a brave man to ignore tenners scattered on the pavement and just assume that others will foolishly ignore them for days, weeks and months on end.
Well it's certainly better to be up than down on the day before results.
I have some powder ready to load up assuming there's good news and the market is slow to react which it almost certainly will be.
Re post 943 I also note Italian banks stakes-could this be an ENI option? This lot of investors add up to 27.27% so perhaps we are not as ring fenced as I had thought.FH
Re post 943 I also note Italian banks stakes-could this be an ENI option?
Not very likely. Everyone's stake is for sale at "the right price" but the Italians have smallish stakes and have generally been reducing (Akros has anyway). Pontoil of course have a very much bigger chunk and could be an important driver in the event of an approach.
This lot of investors add up to 27.27% so perhaps we are not as ring fenced as I had thought
....mmmm..named institutions in that list 27.27% plus Pontoil 23.9%, Directors and the estate of the former Chairman 17.8%....the rest of us have only 31% between us. But persuade the Directors, Pontoil, Blackrock and L&G - and, Bob's yer uncle, that is over 55% and it is game over.
Fail to persuade the Directors and Pontoil, though, and any buyer would be dead in the water from a practical point of view!
ee
Are people expecting a big re rating tomorrow ? I would have thought even on good news a relatively modest tick up hopefully 10% + ???
I think we've had a lot of ups and downs, I'm expecting more of the same going forward, hopefully with an upward trend until a deal is done in 12 months, potentially less, perhaps more depending on tgd. ??
For me anything else is a bonus, are people here seriously expecting a big tick up in the next few days ??
k
are people here seriously expecting a big tick up in the next few days ??
Well, it depends entirely on what is revealed tomorrow! If there is good news re: TGT1 perforation plans, if analysts are positively surprised because they failed to take cost recovery into account, if the share buyback is restarted, if there is comment re reserves upgrades. There will be reminders of the potential and (what has so far revealed to be) good progress of TGT2 drilling.
On the other hand, if they neglect to mention any of the above (though I'm not sure how they can!) then I'll expect the shareprice not to respond or even to fall. It can't fall much further IMO - look at Exxon's sale next door so a muted reaction may see yet more top ups from me!
I place money on the statement containing more disappointment than upside surprise. It seems ever thus with Soco in the recent past.
I continue to hold more in hope than expectation.
darlocst, I think you're being harsh in the extreme. It seems to me that SOCO have done pretty well delivering, tgt coming on line , on time and to budget. Unfortunately we've had this failure to get production up to 55k by year end, which I still don't understand, although it's been suggested it's something to do with PV not wanting to perf the extra zones, I have no idea why. We have been promised a plan to up production in the next couple of weeks, (by the end of March). I don't think it would be an unrealistic expectation that we hear at least something tomorrow. but worse case we wait a couple more weeks, yes we might get some more buy notes, and some numbers upped, but realistically, I suspect that things won't be spelt out clearly enough, and it'll be as notable for what isn't said as what is, hope I'm wrong, hope we hit 400 tomorrow or within a week, it's possible, and has happened before. Maybe when production actually does hit 55k, and it's rns'ed that will trigger a re rating. If it's just what we already know and updates on that, I'm not sure it's going to make much difference.
Perhaps the market thinks that TGD is going to hold up the sale of vietnam ? Personally, if they find get a good result, I suspect it might, or that no deal will be done until they have another shot (or a 2 shot drill ) at TGD ??
Anyway, I'm looking forward to another AGM where we'll discuss drilling tgd again, (will it be the 4th or 5th since we went to one where there was a letter on the chairs saying that drilling Deep E they had hit high pressure and had to stop ??? ).
looking forward to tomorrow,
K
it's been suggested it's something to do with PV not wanting to perf the extra zones, I have no idea why.
If you have "no idea why" then you really haven't been paying attention! The delay is due to the need to keep the oligocene reservoir isolated so that they can do long-term testing on reservoir performance, because there is a question over how best to drain the oligocene reservoir (because one well underperformed in the oligocene and, for the longer term, they need to know whether they will need to drill another one in due course).
I suspect that things won't be spelt out clearly enough
I'll be amazed if that is the case. Front and centre on their minds will be the need to spell out the performance and potential of the assets in excruciating detail! Of course there may well be one or two things that can't yet be said definitively because decisions haven't been finalised (such as TGD drilling, perfing the TGT Miocene, details of plans for ramping up TGT phase 2 - which may require some modification to the FPSO - and the production rate and reserves from CNV, after the separation analysis).....but I'd think that the general picture will be made crystal clear.
ee
