Incidental stuff

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21st May '09 by emptyend

1294 comments 413271 reads

NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!

I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.

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About the Author

Emptyend

Premium Member

1294 comments

jseth123

13th Mar '12

but I'd think that the general picture will be made crystal clear.

I'm getting a bit excited now... :-p And it has got to that point where there is nothing left to say about it before 7am; because there is nothing that can be done!

Here's hoping for a cheery Wednesday. GLA.

kenobi

13th Mar '12

If you have "no idea why" then you really haven't been paying attention!

yes you're probably right, looking back at the IMS in November that seems like a reasonable summary,

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111010700312105R

although I seem to recall reading here that someone was suggesting (was it you ee?) that there might be an element of PV management delaying production to show maximum production increases in certain timescales ?

Perhaps that was just a rumour, and apologies if it was someone else, no slight intended.

I too hope that things are crystal clear after tomorrow, although as you say, some things remain unknowns,

Some things are clear now, and don't seem to be pushing the price up significantly, but I suppose one thing is projected cashflow and profits, another thing is actuals.

looking forward to tomorrows results,

emptyend

13th Mar '12

I seem to recall reading here that someone was suggesting (was it you ee?) that there might be an element of PV management delaying production to show maximum production increases in certain timescales ?

I certainly didn't suggest that - though it is true that since PV met their production targets for 2011 well in advance (see post somewhere reporting the dates) then they had no incentive to increase production further during 2011.

SW10Chap

13th Mar '12

need to keep the oligocene reservoir isolated so that they can do long-term testing on reservoir performance, because there is a question over how best to drain the oligocene reservoir

You don't really want to be rushing things - not for the zones which have been perforated, and not for the other zones either. Without getting too technical, the faster you try to draw fluids from the reservoir, the quicker you're going to knacker it and the less your overall recovery will be. The 55k BOPD 'plateau' figure will represent a calculated optimum flow in this context.

Perforating additional zones serves to complicate the picture; what might be the optimum wellhead pressure to flow one zone may not be optimal for the other. On top of that, it's clear that they're not yet (or weren't in November) wholly happy with their modelling of the Oligocene and wanted to refine that.

Remember that some of the most important stuff that comes from wells is data...

SW10 (Who he?)

emptyend

13th Mar '12

Remember that some of the most important stuff that comes from wells is data...

...but some of the other important stuff is dollars - as I guess we see tomorrow. ;-)

Yup - you can see PV's argument in favour of wanting to get more data out. They should have a very good idea now though and be able to move ahead with perfing the Miocene - even if they haven't finally got the answer to all the implications for the oligocene.

Remember that the oligocene is a very minor part of both production and reserves, compared to the Miocene.

Nice to see you making a guest appearance, SW10 - do stick around for a while :-)

kenobi

13th Mar '12

ee,

my comment refered to 869 on this very thread
when you wrote on the subject perfing the other zones,
"You will have noted that PV managed to exceed their production targets last year without opening up the Miocene - that won't be the case going forward. The ONLY factor that has held things back for this length of time is PV management gaming their remuneration targets (IMO) - there is nothing technical, given that they now have enough data to decide how to manage each reservoir section and each well."
http://www.stockopedia.com/content/incidental-stuff-28613/?comment=869#869

emptyend

13th Mar '12

Aaah OK. You had translated my earlier comments re 2011 production as

to show maximum production increases in certain timescales

...which I obviously didn't recognise, because I was thinking the exact opposite - which was that they had no incentive to raise production. I noted this in the other part of 957, that you didn't quote:

they had no incentive to increase production further during 2011.

In the event that PV do indeed wish to show maximum production increases in certain timescales, I am sure we will all be delighted!!!!

nigelpm

14th Mar '12

From my first pass through the prelims lots of questions are raised. I intend drafting an email to management but will wait for those who understand the business more than I do to post.

kenobi

14th Mar '12

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201203140700192978Z

tgt production up to 40k

predicted at least 55k by q3

seems a plan has been agreed, would be interested to understand why PV are so much more cautious than SOCO re increasing production

K

kenobi

14th Mar '12

my initial reaction would be that 40k is high if no furter zones have been perfed, this bodes will for eventual plateau production, Q3 target for this obviously disappointing.

will be interesting to see what the market makes of this,
k

nigelpm

14th Mar '12

will be interesting to see what the market makes of this,

My guess would be a slight dip back to 320p given everything is exactly as expected RE: the consensus numbers i.e. the market was spot on.

There's certainly been some rose-tinted views here but I think that's due to management's exuberance from presentations etc.. - whether that turns out to be irrational or not we'll have to wait.

emptyend

14th Mar '12

Results thread here

WeeEck

12th Apr '12

Share purchase by director.
The Company announces that on 12 April 2012, Dr Mike Watts, a Non-Executive Director of the Company, bought 1,782 SOCO International plc ordinary shares of GBP0.05 each ("Shares") at a purchase price of GBP2.843611 per Share. The Shares were purchased on the open market pursuant to a trading plan entered into on 29 September 2009.
Does that throw out the theory that SOCO are unable to buy back shares due to behind the scenes negotiations.

rhomboid1

12th Apr '12

I would say not as the whole raison d'être of a Trade Plan is to avoid close periods locking them out from dealing.

thebuffoon

12th Apr '12

The Shares were purchased on the open market pursuant to a trading plan entered into on 29 September 2009.
Does that throw out the theory that SOCO are unable to buy back shares due to behind the scenes negotiations.

The emboldened part of the first sentence answers the question in the second.

Buffy

WeeEck

13th Apr '12

That's what I thought. Just wanted confirmation.,
Eric

emptyend

25th Apr '12

PTTEP results for Q1 out today. Company site here:

Net profit increases 64%....

crude oil sales volume of the Vietnam 16-1 project was increased due to the production start up in the 3rd quarter of 2011. By this quarter, the Vietnam 16 -1 project can produce at the rate of 30,854 BOED and natural gas at 20 MMSCFD.

Also perhaps worth noting that the ENI Q1 results are out at lunchtime. I've wondered for a while whether ENI is a potential bidder for SOCO International (LON:SIA) or at least a partner in TGD - so perhaps that will get answered today one way or the other, given that a TGD announcement is surely imminent.

kenobi

25th Apr '12

Perhaps this gives us a realistic view of current production ? maybe 40 was just peak production, but across a period of time we should be banking on 30K + at the moment.
I'm starting to wonder if this isn't all bad anyway. After all if we got production upto 90k in quarter 3 we probably wouldn't be able to get that through the facilities anyway. imagine we get production through the current boat upto say 60-70k per day with some tweaking, but this means firstly that we don't need other facilities, or to tie in to bach ho, and then consider if this slower rate of production might mean that we get an increased recovery rate ? obviously it's more profitable to extract x amount of oil in the shortest possible time, but perhaps extracting x +10% over a longer period without needing extra infrastructure might be just as profitable in the longer term or more. More importantly, would that asset be worth more to a purchaser ?

Interesting to see the TGD decision, short term I wonder what the price implications of the decision to drill or not might be ? I suspect the decision to not drill would see the price rise, since this could be seen as clearing the decks and making a deal more likely.

cheers K

emptyend

25th Apr '12

Perhaps this gives us a realistic view of current production ? maybe 40 was just peak production, but across a period of time we should be banking on 30K + at the moment.

I thought it was always clear that the 40k+ number was just a peak during testing.

perhaps extracting x +10% over a longer period without needing extra infrastructure might be just as profitable in the longer term or more. More importantly, would that asset be worth more to a purchaser ?

I think there is no doubt that extra infrastructure will be needed - its just a question of what sort and when.

I find it difficult to think that this (and the production ramp-up) isn't part and parcel of the considerations driving montisation timing in Vietnam. IMO most of the outstanding decisions and pending announcements are clearly linked together.

kenobi

25th Apr '12

I thought it was always clear that the 40k+ number was just a peak during testing.

> yes, are we to assume it's static around 30 ? 30k seems to be the average this year, I wonder if the company would give an estimate as to what the typical run rate is now or are we to assume production has been flat since jan 1st ??

I think there is no doubt that extra infrastructure will be needed - its just a question of what sort and when.

>> perhaps, but at this rate perhaps not this year or next, beyond that, I'm hoping it will be someone else's concern and they might even own some suitable infra structure. I doubt there will be a rush to build a pipe line to Bach Ho or order another tanker conversion based on production so far. Even then if PV are going to take this conservative view to production which might not be bad across the piece, perhaps part of the benefit will be that they won't need extra infrastructure for some time if at all. Still no point debating it, just musing, time will tell.

K

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Incidental stuff

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Emptyend

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