NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
Thanks Martin. See you at the AGM.
BTW, I phoned Soco this morning and was told "there has been a lot of positive feedback about the dividend."
Mike
Can anyone give an experienced estimate as to how long SOCO's AGM is likely to last please?
For a Senior Railcard advance booking, 'twould be useful to know..
Formal business - 15 mins
Total time (assuming questions and presentation) 90 mins ish
Add on a couple of hours in the pub afterwards, if you wish.
Hi ee
Do you expect any formal or informal guidance to be given re the scale of dividend payments to be provided at the AGM and/or in the associated RNS?
Thank you, Martin
Thanks for this. Train fares dramatically cheaper in advance. And when last in London we wanted to change the return train and it was painfully expensive so to do..
Martin,
There could easily be a formal RNS - but it depends on whether enough of the issues re the future have been clarified by then. I understand that an announcement could be made at any point between AGM day and the day of the Interims (late August).
Informally I would expect that people will be able to reach their own conclusions about quantum - and I doubt they will be much different to my estimates.
ee
So...Brent at $104.60 or so....which means realisations from TGT are at about $110.
What's not to like? (other than the fact that the FTSE is off 109 points so far)
....just sayin'.....
Can anyone tell me the approximate daily cost or the total likely cost of drilling H5 assuming 30 days of drilling and how much revenue will SOCO have earned from production during this period?
Day rates are in the order of $150k (gross) according to this source.
I reckon that production revenue will be around $2.2mn per day (net, pre-tax).
FWIW
ps...total VN capex budget for 2013 is $60mn (per AGM slide 4) - which covers 5 wells on TGT....of which the H5 well is the first
Brent now $107.60.......
.....nb Tiswas, per my midweek email ;-)
...which means that Brent is now up 7% in the last two weeks.
AND the currency moves over the last two weeks are worth an additional 3.4%. So in GBP terms SOCO International (LON:SIA) is getting roughly 10% more for its oil (pre-tax.....and it would be even more than that post-tax!). But the shares are lower.......
........aren't markets weird? Or perhaps they are just populated by exceptionally slow learners?
yes time was when they were drilling a significant well, with just 2-3 weeks to go to completion, you might have got a little run up on the shares. Yet the ftse, has almost recovered (over 6500 today), but soco is stuck at little over 350.
Lets hope the H5 result leads to a re rating, in a good way,
G
time was when they were drilling a significant well, with just 2-3 weeks to go to completion, you might have got a little run up on the shares
ironic I wrote the above yesterday, up 15p today, over 4%,
and my wife says no one listens to what I say !
you have to smile sometimes
K
Not sure if this is a serious issue, or just a local political thing, I suspect it's nothing in the great scheme of things,
Following the discovery of oil in its territory, Bunyoro kingdom in western Uganda has fought for a share of the spoils.
http://www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=26348:bunyoro-to-sue-govt-oil-firms&catid=79:businesstopstories&Itemid=68
WWF again,
http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?209516/Oil-exploration-threatens-Africas-billion-dollar-World-Heritage-Site
You cannot expect anything other than they will fight their corner as hard as they can. I don't blame them at all, whether they really think they can stop this, or whether they are just trying to extract as many concessions as they can I don't know. They may be a pain for us shareholders, but I suspect the world is a better place because of groups like them standing up for those that would otherwise have no voice. (we can argue whether the people living there would rather explo or not, the ones who want expo, have the government and soco arguing their side, It is healthy that the rest have someone to argue their point of view). Hopefully an accomodation can be reached that everyone can live with.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23526178
covered by the bbc too. It's a bit one sided all this, shame no one has asked soco how many acres a oil platform and support unit might take up, if they could answer that, and do a deal to move the oil out through Uganda, wouldn't that put the "damage" into some kind of perspective ? The other option is that the whole resevoir is drained from Uganda, and the DRC gets nothing ?
K
You cannot expect anything other than they will fight their corner as hard as they can. I don't blame them at all, whether they really think they can stop this, or whether they are just trying to extract as many concessions as they can I don't know. They may be a pain for us shareholders, but I suspect the world is a better place because of groups like them standing up for those that would otherwise have no voice
I don't disagree with much of that. However, are their views, and campaign, really either in the best interests of the local population or the environment in this case? There's plenty of evidence that lack of employment opportunities and income have a negative effect on the environment as well as the population (poaching and other illegal activities that harm the environment) so saying no is not as simple an answer as it seems sitting in an armchair in a wealthy part of the world (that has already built over much of its environmental heritage). I note that they have attempted to address the employment issue to some extent - a step in the right direction, but they also seem to be looking for a vast number of jobs (10,000) from hydroelectric schemes. Excuse me? Presumably those 10,000 will be driving trucks on new roads they will build through the park to construction sites where vast amounts of earth will be shifted (powered by oil) and large areas flooded, pipelines laid, power stations built and electricity pylons will march across the countryside. Is that really better than well managed HC exploration and (possible) development?
I don't disagree with much of that. However, are their views, and campaign, really either in the best interests of the local population or the environment in this case?
I don't presume to know, If I lived their I suspenct I would much rather jobs/money flowed in via a hydro electric plant and sustainable fishing and tourist activities than through oil expo. You're entitled to your views too. I would say perhaps we should leave it to the locals to decide, not investors or governments who have a financial stake in the outcome. Perhaps the best solution is a little bit of everything without too much of any one thing. Hydro electric might produce benefits for generations to come, it might even help tourism. What would help the people more than anything else would be peace in the area. I think it's unlikely the the discovery of oil will help in the search for peace.
I note we both also sit in arm chairs in a rich part of the world, even the government are potentially wealthier, Seems that perhaps leaving it to the locals would be the best solution, although in reality, that means bribes for local leaders to nod through developments regardless of the views of the people .
K
I would say perhaps we should leave it to the locals to decide
I don't have much problem with that - but does anyone really think that the locals are trying to stop Soco undertaking prelimnary explo?
but does anyone really think that the locals are trying to stop Soco undertaking prelimnary explo?
I don't know, but, the locals in west sussex are for example stopping drilling for gas, even though they don't have permission to frack, why ? because they know this will lead to fracking. Locals might be wise to consider that if they find oil, it will be extracted. So if they're against it, their best chance of stopping it is that they don't discover oil. So to answer your question, I don't know if they are, but if they want to prevent oil extraction in the future they should be yes.
I sitting in my wealthy country, holding soco shares, have a different view, as does soco the company. Lets be honest if SOCO finds a few 100M barrels of oil, the show will be unstoppable, soco know that and so do we. I would encourage soco to suggest possible development plans moving oil out via Uganda infrastructure, perhaps using bases on that side of the lake too. It wouldn't cost much in oil terms to set up fish breeding programs to make fish more plentiful in the lake to offset any dangers from pollution. I know they are already spending money on the ground to win hearts and minds (bribing the locals with schools/hospitals some might say).
Of course, I doubt these things would be happening to the extent they are if it wasn't for local and wwf opposition.
Cheers K
