NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
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NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
I don't disagree with much of that. However, are their views, and campaign, really either in the best interests of the local population or the environment in this case? There's plenty of evidence that lack of employment opportunities and income have a negative effect on the environment as well as the population (poaching and other illegal activities that harm the environment) so saying no is not as simple an answer as it seems sitting in an armchair in a wealthy part of the world
This is the essential point - and why the WWF campaign gets up my nose.
They are saying, in essence, that park boundaries that are decades old should be left intact without being reconsidered, DESPITE the fact that it has done absolutely nothing for the local population or wildlife. Fuiseog and I both spent 10-15 minutes talking to the WWF person after the AGM and it is clear that the WWF is very well aware that the park is failing (eg the absolute plummeting in the hippo population). Furthermore, they insist on cynically misrepresenting what SOCO's plans are, in order to gain publicity and donations.
We put it to the WWF that the interests of wildlife will be best served by working with SOCO rather than opposing them - mainly because SOCO is more responsible/ethical/considerate than other companies who would (in due time) take it on if SOCO pulled out.
It is not up to an unelected WWF to decide what is best for the DRC and its people. They have no right to deprive them of economic opportunities. If the DRC think there is merit in proposing a redrawing of the park boundaries then they should be perfectly at liberty to propose that, and enter into discussions with the UNESCO World Heritage Committee over the matter.
For some reason (funding?) the WWF seems paranoid about Virunga losing World Heritage Site status if the park boundaries are eroded. Frankly, I think that is ridiculously unlikely, providing that the bulk/core of the park would remain unaffected by any activity - as it would, given that nobody will be going anywhere near the mountains.
The WWF's utopian vision of a tourism based economy must first of all deliver security, otherwise it is a complete non-starter. And then it relies on development of transport links into the park - and accommodation within it. There is no chance of security unless the local populations think it is in their interest to cooperate - and IMO the best way of achieving that to explore a balanced and environmentally-sensitive development of the park for BOTH oil and tourism, because that will offer an improved range of economic chances for the locals.
The fact is that the eastern DRC needs some development and (wholly without any oil company influence) the WWFs attempts to encourage tourism and protect local wildlife have completely failed, because they cannot get the locals to desist from poaching and violence. The DRC Government must try a different approach.
Anyway - I put most of this on the WWF site yesterday......and Fuiseog has made his views known in the other thread. The WWF is IMO a disgraceful pressure group that continues with its cynical misrepresentations in order to raise cash. I would never have believed that to be possible - and (if they only knew what the WWF was up to) I guess most people would be completely shocked. Where are the proper investigative journalists when they are needed?
Incidentally, I notice this afternoon that there is a fresh statement on SOCO's website from RdS.
He seems to make much the same points as I've been made (though additionally points out the political risks of the DRC failing to assess their own resources and allowing Uganda free rein on Lake Edward).
It is not only 'fresh', it is also refreshing to read such an eloquent & principled statement.
If anybody wishes to behave / invest / manage 'ethically' they could do a lot worse than follow SOCO's example.
yes some good points made, especially the danger that the resevoirs of oil are just drained from Uganda and DRC get nothing, I think I mentioned this very issue on this thread, 1190.
Obviously depending on resevoir geography, but assuming it could all be practically be drilled and extracted from the other side, with some kind of financial compensation, this would seem like the ideal solution for all. All that is except possibly soco ! where would that leave us ? I guess that it's pretty unlikely it could all be done from the other side anyway. I must admit, I completely agree with ee that the likelihood that the park would loose status and funding if they re drew some of the boarders to accommodate oil discoveries is pretty remote. This really has to be the sensible thing to do, hopefully where any oil is would not clash with the sections of highest environment importance. The higher populated areas are probably more appropriately outside the park anyway.
I imagine the WWF are peddling this line to put pressure on SOCO and the DRC.
K
Obviously depending on resevoir geography, but assuming it could all be practically be drilled and extracted from the other side, with some kind of financial compensation, this would seem like the ideal solution for all.
The problem with this is that it would be almost impossible to work out unitisation without drilling on the DRC side. Plus, as you say it's very unlikely that recovery levels could be acceptable trying to extract it all from the Ugandan side.
As said, the logical way forward is to redraw the boundaries, protect well what needs protecting, but allow some planned economic development outside that area. Though that is not going to be popular in many quarters.
The problem with this is that it would be almost impossible to work out unitisation without drilling on the DRC side. Plus, as you say it's very unlikely that recovery levels could be acceptable trying to extract it all from the Ugandan side.
Both true (more or less).
Both points are important to both SOCO and, more relevantly, the DRC Government. The issue is that ANY government should be entitled to assess what its own resource base is - because only then can it make rational decisions. There is a huge difference between having a marginally-commercial field and having a world-class resource - and at the present they don't know which they might have ...... if anything at all.....which is the purpose of allowing SOCO to get to first base in assessing it. If and when they find they have something worth drilling on the DRC side of the border, then they have to decide how to proceed - and that is the point where it becomes relevant to take account of all the factors from an environmental, ecological and population welfare perspective. Either way, it will be a long process - even by industry standards.
I wonder what they want the money for?
China National Offshore Oil Corp., the parent of the nation’s biggest offshore energy explorer, is considering raising as much as $3 billion in a sale of dollar-denominated bonds, two people with knowledge of the matter said.
Cnooc and its parent spent about $26 billion on overseas acquisitions in the five years through end of 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, making it the second most acquisitive Chinese energy company during the period. Cnooc bought Nexen Inc. for $15.1 billion last year in the biggest outbound takeover by a Chinese company. The proceeds from its May sale were slated to partly refinance that buyout, stock exchange filings show.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-06/cnooc-parent-said-to-weigh-up-to-3-billion-dollar-bond-offering.html
Maybe they never took their eye off SOCO.
Hi WeeEck,
Much as I'd like to see it the big problem is that a Chinese takeover of a company involved in Vietnam will raise all sorts of alarm bells in Vietnam and I'd expect it to be vetoed by the government.
The number of, and intensity of, conflicts between these two countries make Britain's relationship with France since the 1400s seem quite benign in comparison.
Cheers!
Hi JD,
I know it is a long shot but I am going back to 2008 when the Telegraph reported -
Yesterday, Soco, whose assets are concentrated in Asia and Africa, confirmed a report in The Daily Telegraph that it had received an approach.
The company said in a statement: "Soco can confirm that it has received a very preliminary approach regarding the sale of a majority of the company's asset portfolio. There can be no certainty that any transaction will occur or as to the terms of any such transaction. A further announcement will be made when appropriate."
It is understood that no detailed talks have taken place, and that a number of other potential buyers have also show early-stage interest in acquiring Soco. Analyst believe that Sinochem had probably pitched its proposal between £16 and £24 a share. Shares in Soco closed up 2.3pc at £11.50 - valuing thev group at £860m - having earlier climbed to as much as £15.69p, the biggest intra-day jump since September 1998.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/3174618/Soco-International-is-approached-for-takeover.html
Cheers,
Eric
I believe the perceived wisdom is that a takeover by a Chinese company is unlikely as the two nations do not get on and have an active dispute - the famous 'nine dotted line' dispute. The 'nine dotted line' IMHO is a child's drawing which claims all of the South China Sea for China and ignores the opinions of other nations or international law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dotted_line.
Leaving aside my views on international relations on a private note I neither want to swop my share in Soco's assets for Chinese paper or an amount wholly in cash. I would prefer a bidder whose paper I have a bit more faith in.
Tom.
TomKe,
I'm not so picky and would take £24 of anyone's money.
TheWife
(Yes, I do know that was a pre-split figure)
I recorded my guess as to the most likely buyer or a year ago. That hasn't changed. I can't see the Chinese as likely.....Korean, Japanese or Thai are all more likely.
As for timing, it is clear that things are close to getting proved up to the level that won't require a buyer to take much of a flyer - and in that respect things are different to 2008.
I doubt they would take a paper bid for Vietnam - except perhaps from the sort of European major I have in mind.
Interesting to see that Sonangol and PV are now cooperating on oil exploration and will "soon" finalise a joint venture:
The process of creation of a joint-venture in the oil sector between Angola and Vietnam will be completed soon, as part of the bilateral cooperation deal signed in 2008.....
Sonangol EP may develop in future its activities of exploration and production of oil in Vietnamese territory, following the approval of cooperative agreements binding the two countries.
The information was released Wednesday in Luanda by the Oil minister, Botelho de Vasconcelos, who stressed that the process could have been implemented earlier on, but some situations prevented the project.
The process started more than five years ago with the signing of the protocol.
I'm intrigued why this has happened now, but couldn't happen previously........
Hi ee,
If anyone knows, this man probably does.....
Ambassador António Monteiro
Non-Executive Director , Soco International
Appointment date: June 2009
Committee membership: Audit, Remuneration and Nominations Committees
Ambassador António Monteiro has over 40 years of experience with the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including as Foreign Minister of Portugal, and with international organisations, including as UN High Representative for Elections in Côte d’Ivoire and as a member of the UN Secretary-General’s Panel on the Referenda in the Sudan. He was formerly the Ambassador of Portugal to France and the Permanent Representative of Portugal to the United Nations, where posts included being President of the Security Council and of the Security Council’s Committee established by Resolution 661 (1990).
António is currently also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Portuguese Bank Millenium BCP (Banco Comercial Português), a non-executive member of the Board of the Angolan Bank BPA (Banco Privado Atlântico), President of the Luso-Brazilian Foundation Curator’s Council and a member of the Faculty of Human and Social Sciences’ General Council of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa.
ATB
Maybe Weeeck is onto something
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/127197/Vietnam_China_Expand_Joint_Exploration_in_Gulf_of_Tonkin
Mick
Brent is now $115.80, on the back of concerns over Syria action. This compares with a Brent average of about $102.50 throughout Q2.
Meanwhile the SOCO International (LON:SIA) share price is still below its average level during Q2.
Go figure.....
Hi tournesol,
...perhaps markets are worried about gorilla warfare?
Verily I say unto you, if King McKong is for us, who shall be against us ?
ATB
Well I note various claims that certain funds have disinvested in recent months, thanks to the disingenuous claims of the WWF. However....once they've sold then the overhang will have gone. I'd think that that point must now be quite close, given that SOCO hasn't been widely/deeply held by very many institutions.