https://www.ft.com/content/655...
I’m curious to see how the market reacts to this next week if at all it does.
As you may well be aware, there is already a shortage of wheat world wide due to Ukraine and Russia I believe producing nearly 30% of the worlds wheat.
While India is the second largest produce of wheat in the world, it exports very little. But they may end up needing to import this year.
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Record harvest this year in India, just as well, why will they need to import? I read a lot Russian wheat goes to Egypt and Turkey.
If the weather does not change in England there could be a shortage here, very little rain in the last 5 weeks.
I’ve seen no mention of a record harvest and only mentions that India’s wheat has been hit by a heatwave since March.
Your link is a month old and before temperatures suddenly jumped. From 26/04/22 they were predicting 15-20% drop in harvest. This may have got worse since then and hence the export ban.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/...
"Ukraine and Russia I believe producing nearly 30% of the worlds wheat" is one of those widely reported 'headline' facts to sensationalise and scare us, that is incorrect. They export 30% of the world's wheat.
A lot of wheat is grown and consumed domestically and so is not included in export statistics. Ukraine and Russia produce about 13% of the world's wheat.
The UK grows most of its wheat, and the majority of what we import comes from Germany, France and Canada. The UK is ranked 15th in the world's wheat production and we have very good yields, the below is sorted by yield.
Top 15 production
When I consume news I am left with the 'the UK is crap' feeling, but for small country and probably favourable weather, the data shows we are doing well and basically self-sufficient in our wheat upplies.
Read this today from The Daily Upside:
“
| As India Bans Wheat Exports, Global Food Supplies Are In For a Rough Ride | ||||||||
| When Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, attacked Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of wheat, the global food supply chain had a backup plan in place. That plan just fell through. Over the weekend, India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, behind China, announced it was banning wheat exports. Already there is fear of growing hunger worldwide. Now, expect even higherfood prices. | ||||||||
| Separate the Wheat from the Inflation Graph | ||||||||
| When exports from the Black Sea region plummeted after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, India’s government helped calm markets by promising to ship a record 10 million tons of wheat this year. India also has 10% of the world’s grain reserves, according to the US Department of Agriculture, and that surplus was seen as key to making up for global supply shortages. And yet, starting in mid-March, a brutal heat wave ruined a large share of this year’s crop, casting doubt on India’s ability to produce the 111 million tons of wheat the government forecasted for 2022. Some wheat dealers now expect 100 million tons or less, forcing the country to shift its focus inward: | ||||||||
| ||||||||
| “We should keep a surplus, given the climatic aberrations and food security concerns,” Devinder Sharma, an agricultural policy expert, told The Washington Post. “We have such a big population to take care of.” What About Us? Several low-income countries, notably in Africa, depend heavily on India’s wheat supply. On Sunday, New Delhi moved to ease concerns by clarifying that exports to countries of "genuine needs" — as well as exports for which letters of credit are already issued — will continue. Trading Places: Trade protectionism was already inflaming food prices. Last month, Indonesia banned the export of palm oil, the most traded vegetable oil in the world. Together with Russian and Ukrainian sunflower oil, that means over 40% of the world’s vegetable oil market has been locked down.” |
