Is Metro Bank a viable investment?

Friday, May 17 2019 by
3

Metro bank has had a bad year with its price falling from c.4000p in March 2018 to 508p yesterday fuelled by management incompetence that understated the risks of c.£1.9bn of lending and twitter rumours of bank failure.


Metro Bank has moved on from recent twitter rumours and management verbal rebuttals.  This morning, Metro Bank published its prospectus of an upsized underwritten capital placing of £375m (from £350m) to address the misclassification of lending.  The market has taken this well with price up 18% this morning.  On the valuation front, the metrics are now potentially quite attractive (e.g. P/B x0.37) as compared with a year ago (e.g. P/B x2.97).


Given the recapitalisation, the question is whether the bank has become a more viable investment proposition?


Certainly the company is arguing that the strategy remains viable.  Its investor presentation presents the bull case – the message being that ‘sticky’, low-cost retail deposits fund low risk lending. ( presentation can be found at: https://www.metrobankonline.co.uk/globalassets/documents/investor_documents/metro-bank-may-2019-investor-presentation.pdf )


The presentation assumes that:


  • Governance structures remain as is.  (NB There have been no board or management changes announced).
  • Balance sheet structures remain as currently is. i.e. The experience of the last few weeks and the recapitalisation does not dent retail depositors confidence and that a very high rate of deposit growth (c.20% pa) can be maintained.
  • The strategy of growing the branch network and expanding SME banking products continues unabated.
  • Customer acquisition continues to remains high.
  • Regulatory initiatives are approved by the regulator. eg AIRB approval to model risk and capital requirements.

[ Aside: The risk factors section in today’s placing prospectus are very cautious and provide a contrast to this slick narrative. ]


In my view, after the last year’s 88% value destruction (which I thankfully avoided), a short relief rally will likely continue which could be traded until more news is announced.  However as an investment proposition, it seems sensible to remain cautious as:


  • the board and management do not appear to be being held accountable and changes made;
  • that regulators are not using their powers to impose risk mitigation programs to address obvious inadequacies – calibre of senior managers, conflicts of interest between board and shareholders, deficiencies in risk management capabilities, etc;
  • and that clients (particularly depositors) could become more cautious in their assessment of banking with Metro.  

In conclusion, although investors/underwriters have committed to put…

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As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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2 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

ambrosia 18th May 1 of 2
1

its one on my watch list as a possible catch a falling knife, but I cant get past that a bank core responsibility is to manage money and they failed to manage themselves so spectacularly

is the rights issue still going ahead in June

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RobC 18th May 2 of 2

The co-ordinators and bookrunners seem confident as the issue is placed at 500p.

The timetable is: General Meeting in 3 June with dealings to commence 5 June.
Source: https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/metro-bank-LON:MTRO/news/metro-bank-plc-result-of-placing-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20190517:nRSQ3809Za/

Even if the price crashes, the company will get the cash as the placing is underwritten.

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