We are as a I write in a critical phase of this market. Is it the end of the Bear or just a correction? I owe it to those who have read my last piece The Real Truth about Bear Markets to set out my current thinking. I am in doubt again as we are at a turning point todays date is 19th Feb 2019. The Dow has retraced 75% of the fall and 27 of the last 36 trading days have been positive, that’s a very strong rally. As for the UK we have problems of our own weighing on the market, but they are well known. So has the trade war subsided, has anything changed since the collapse that started last October? The FTSE and 250 have retraced 50% of the fall but the 200DMA’s are still pointing SE and volume is average. I would say it all depends upon the Dow if that turns and it needs to turn now then the Bear is still in play, however if it breaks the all time high on good volume, I have got it wrong. Gold is looking good and Palladium has taken a leaf out of Minervini’ s book but I am too scared to act, or as they say will wait for the minor correction prior to investing. It is up 200% on this wave.
Palladium has its own drivers and I wouldn’t read across from that to the wider market.
Palladium demand for catalytic converters is up due to the switch from diesel to petrol car engines and tighter vehicle emissions standards in China.
But palladium is only found in small quantities alongside platinum so supply is inelastic.
The other side of the coin is that platinum prices are weak.
