Is VCP about to have another breakout to over 600p?1/8/17 it.s on it's way.

Tuesday, Mar 08 2016 by

Ranked 83 Momentum 99 and up 14.3% over the last month VCP is on the move again. They have over 8M in cash.
The sales growth is showing 164.5% and a 50 day MA @ 11.8%.
It is also undervalued with a valuation from Vector Vest of 2257p.
The biggest thing that stands out is the net profit estimated for 2016 of £11.8M from £1.96M in 2015. All good positive points pointing to an explosive breakout.

Stop set at 1200p

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Victoria PLC is a designer, manufacturer and distributor of flooring products. The Company's principal activities are the manufacture, distribution and sale of floorcoverings. Its segments include UK and Australia. It manufactures wool and synthetic broadloom carpets, carpet tiles, underlay and flooring accessories. In addition, it markets and distributes a range of luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and hardwood flooring products produced by third-party manufacturers. Its product offering in the United Kingdom ranges from both crafted, woven Wilton carpets to Tufted carpets in a myriad of fashion colors and styles. Its stock range offerings cover saxonies, tonals, velvets, twists and natural loop pile styles for residential use. The Company supplies its products to the mid to high end residential market and contract sector both in the United Kingdom and overseas. Its subsidiary, Munster Carpets Limited, is engaged in the manufacture and distribution of floorcoverings for the contract market. more »

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60 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

lightningtiger 5th Apr '16 41 of 60

What makes you think the risk is increasing? If you don't take a bit of risk you can't reap any rewards. The 50 day MA is still nicely positioned on an uptrend.
I am still looking for other breakouts and FLOW looks interesting, now backed by Shell and with 170,000 customers. No decent profits seen as yet but how long it will take, I do not know. However the trend is moving up and the momentum is increasing.
I did hold TRAK for a while, increased my holdings, top sliced twice and exit on the stop loss.

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herbie47 5th Apr '16 42 of 60

In reply to post #126278

Its risk/reward. High risk does not equal high reward. The risk is the high debt and that could increase again with the next take over. If a recession comes in the next year or 2 they will be very vulnerable. I'm reducing my high street retailers exposure this year and housebuilders.

Ive held FLOW before, made some money but got out when they were about 34p.

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lightningtiger 6th Apr '16 43 of 60

You are probably doing the right thing. Being in the right sector at the right time makes a huge difference. .Housebuilders have a cycle as does oil & gas.and a few others.
It is worth taking a look at Stockopedia's risers and see which sectors are doing best. That helps to take some of the risk out and helps.

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herbie47 15th Apr '16 44 of 60

In reply to post #126635

Did you get stopped out of Victoria (LON:VCP) I saw it was down about 10% this morning?

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lightningtiger 16th Apr '16 45 of 60

No ,European Carpet Group takeover did not take place.At the end of the day it finished down 5.4%. Still well above the stop loss.The 50 day MA is still positive at +19.7%.

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herbie47 16th Apr '16 46 of 60

That was lucky. In fact I think its a good thing the takeover fell through but just shows how this share price is supported. Taking on even more debt as we get closer to a recession is highly risky. There seems to be a downturn in the high street already, most increase in sales are from online.

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lightningtiger 3rd Oct '16 47 of 60

News 1 hour ago. Victoria completes Ezi Floor acquisition for £6.5 to accelerate profitable growth.
Geff Wilding, chairman said "It is expected to make a positive contribution to Victoria's profits and delivers immediate accelerative earnings.

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hayashi22 3rd Oct '16 48 of 60

What I don't get is that the vendors must be selling too cheap! Guess VCP can strip costs that the acquired company couldn't as a small private entity.

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lightningtiger 22nd Nov '16 49 of 60

Interim results out today showing revenues up 45%, operating profit up from £7.9M to £14.4M ,however there is still now a £67.7M debt with the recent acquisition of Ezi Floor for £6.5M..
Stockopedia is showing about a five fold increase in net profit for next year 2017. Currently VCP is undervalued, but the results as yet have had little effect on the share price
Having top sliced this share already, may have to wait till 2017 to see some decent increase on the share price again.

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lightningtiger 1st Aug '17 50 of 60

Sorry I lost my report after altering the updated title so have to start again.
From primary Results on 25th July 2017 showing profits before tax up 102% and Stockopedia showing net profit for 2016 £3.82M, Estimated profit 2017 £12.6M Estimated profit 2018 £28.4M.
In spite of this they still seem reluctant to pay a dividend as I think they were considering to do for 2017 last year..
From the last pullback the fibonacci retracement is showing a target price of about 610p.

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Ramridge 1st Aug '17 51 of 60

Hi lightingtiger re. Victoria (LON:VCP) Oddly enough I have been looking at this stock since yesterday.
Current SP of 566.5p is a break-out over a 12 months period.
It was flagged on my system as a Minervini potential. Today's rise of 3% is good but lack of accompanying volume is a worry.
After mulling over it, I decided to take a minimum entry stake. Had the volume confirmed the set-up, it would have been double.
Let's see how it pans out.

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lightningtiger 1st Aug '17 52 of 60

Hi Ramridge , I did mention in my earlier write up today but forgot to put it in with the re written one. They have always been low volumes and the bid offer spread is also high at about 12-13p.
It is now above the last new high at the end of May, so another good sign.
I have top sliced this a few times in the past since they still do not pay a dividend. There is always more than one way of skinning a rabbit.

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Ramridge 1st Aug '17 53 of 60

In reply to post #203743

I don't have a problem with no dividends as long as they continue to show high earnings growth (94% in FY17 and estimated 102% in FY18). On expected performance in FY18, PE drops down to 18.
Debt gearing used to be an issue with this share but the last report a few weeks back shows net debt/ EBITDA of 1.63. Clearly a lot better.

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lightningtiger 4th Aug '17 54 of 60

That didn't take long to get to 614.25p at 10:55am Friday. On the chart with a channel the last two highs are lining up exactly with this third new high and with the fibonarcci retracement.
Perhaps a good time to take some profits?

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Ramridge 4th Aug '17 55 of 60

I am not familiar with your system but we both seem to come to the same conclusion.
The SP since last week has been rising on thin volumes. A dangerous signal. So might sell out by close of play and bank the profit.

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tomg23 4th Aug '17 56 of 60

In reply to post #204859

Hi Ramridge

Ended up on strong volume today compared to the rest of the week. Did you end up banking the profit or are you waiting to see how next week plays out?

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Ramridge 4th Aug '17 57 of 60

In reply to post #204938

Hi tomg23 -
Yes, very strong volume rise today. 4.7 times 55-day volume average.
I added to my position Wed and Thur and holding. This is looking an interesting Minervini play.
Let's see how it plays out next week.

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tomg23 4th Aug '17 58 of 60

In reply to post #204953

Yes agreed its looking like an interesting momentum/ Minervini play. I only got in at 550 and added again yesterday. If todays volume follows through into next week then that will be positive. I think we could see some profit taking next week, taking things back to the 600 level and then hopefully a spring towards the 650 mark

All the best

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Ramridge 10th Aug '17 59 of 60

Hi Tom VCP has been holding up well against the general downward trend in last few days. It's looking good as a Minervini play.

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tomg23 10th Aug '17 60 of 60

In reply to post #206814

Hi Ramridge

Yes seems to be holding up ok at the moment, but there are a few 30k sell tickets going through so not sure if it will hold up much longer under the weight of the general market direction. Will have to wait and see.

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