Isaac's Thread - High Yielding Shares & other stuff

Sunday, May 16 2010 by

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimisim is the best time to sell.

Sir John Templeton


Aviva (LON:AV.)
-Price 326.9
-Forecast Yield 7.71%
- Forward Cover 3.02
-Forward PE 4.3

-Price 530.2
-Forecast Yield 7.04%
- Forward Cover 1.82
-Forward PE 7.6

United Utilities (LON:UU.)
-Price 521.5
-Forecast Yield 6.58%
- Forward Cover 1.7
-Forward PE 8.97

Scottish & Southern Energy (LON:SSE)
-Price 1082
-Forecast Yield 6.5%
- Forward Cover 1.49
-Forward PE 10.3

Severn Trent (LON:SVT)
-Price 1128
-Forecast Yield 6.29%
- Forward Cover 1.42
-Forward PE 11.21

Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSA)
-Price 1779.5
-Forecast Yield 6.25%
- Forward Cover 1.81
-Forward PE 8.86

National Grid (LON:NG.)
-Price 618
-Forecast Yield 6.23%
- Forward Cover 1.55
-Forward PE 10.38

Vodafone Group (LON:VOD)
Price 134.5
-Forecast Yield 6.01%
- Forward Cover 1.91
-Forward PE 8.73

British American Tobacco (LON:BATS)
Price 2033
-Forecast Yield 5.58%
- Forward Cover 1.54
-Forward PE 11.66

Glaxosmithkline (LON:GSK)
Price 1167
-Forecast Yield 5.53%
- Forward Cover 1.86
-Forward PE 9.69

Astrazeneca (LON:AZN)
Price 2879.5
-Forecast Yield 5.37%
- Forward Cover 2.58
-Forward PE 7.22



Investment Greats: Ben Graham



Graham's approach is based on the principle that, while markets are not good at pricing investments, over the long term the true value of businesses will be revealed. "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine".

'Mr Market', as he described the emotional and irrational marketplace, sets share prices that you may not agree with, based on your fundamental analysis of a share's value. When Mr Market's price is sufficiently below your assessment of the share's value, you have the opportunity to buy with what he referred to as a 'margin of safety'.

Allowing yourself this margin of safety is in stark contrast to the 'greater fool theory' (note the lowercase 'f'), whereby people buy shares regardless of valuation in the hope of finding someone to buy them later at an even higher price. It's all about risk and reward.

Risk can also be mitigated to an extent by buying a portfolio of shares, so that even if some companies go bust, the overall return may still beat the market.

Selection criteria

In the mid 1970s, Graham and his colleague, James B. Rea, refined his ideas into ten criteria for selecting a portfolio:

1) earnings yield at least twice the AAA bond yield;

2) price/earnings ratio below 40% of the highest P/E ratio the stock had over the previous five years;

3) dividend yield of at least two-thirds the AAA bond yield;

4) share price below two-thirds of tangible book value per share;

5) share price below two-thirds of net current asset value per share;

6) total debt less than tangible book value;

7) current ratio greater than two;

8) total debt less than twice net current asset value;

9) earnings growth over the previous ten years of at least 7% per annum; and

10) a maximum of two annual earnings falls of 5% or more over the previous ten years.

If you want to trawl for shares meeting these criteria, ADVFN has filters that facilitate this; you can see the results of a recent search I did in this article. Finding shares that tick all these boxes is quite difficult, but tests 1), 3), 5), and 6) were deemed to be the most important.

The following were considered sell signals:

1) share price up more than 50% since buying;

2) share held for more than two years;

3) company stopped paying dividends; or

4) profits fell enough to make it overpriced by 50% or more on the earnings yield criterion.


Books to Read

Investment Strategy:
Security Analysis - Benjamin Graham (HEAVY READING This is the old testament from the 'Dean of Wallstreet')

The Intelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham (HEAVY READING The New Testament)

Value Investing Made Easy - Janet Lowe (Easy read to see if you agree with the strategy)

The Rediscovered Benjamin Graham - Janet Lowe (Easy read with some late interviews that were interesting. I like this book.)

The Warren Buffett Way - Robert G. Hagstrom (Easy read and interesting examples of some of WB's great investments)

Buffettology - Mary Buffett and David Clark (An interesting slant on things. Easy Read)

The Essays of Warren Buffett - Warren E. Buffett (From the annual reports of his company Berkshire Hatherway. Fascinating).

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits - Phillip A. Fisher (Regarded as an investment classic. Fisher was one of the greatest growth stock investors. Buffett says he's 85 % Graham and 15 % Fisher, which is a real compliment).

One Up On Wall Street - Peter Lynch (Peter has a gift for making it all sound simple. I think this book extols the benefits of understanding brands).

The Real Warren Buffett - James O'Loughlin
(Buffett is so much more than an investor. What he has created in the management structure and culture of Berkshire Hathaway is truly unique).

The Smartest Guys In The Room - Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind
(How it can all go wrong. The ENRON scandle. (A riveting read. You couldn't make this up).

Accounts: Interpreting Company Reports and Accounts - Geoffrey Holmes and Alan Sugden

The Great Crash 1929 - John Kenneth Galbraith
(Easy read. I think it's important to understand bubbles, crashes and investment history statistics. It may stop you being panicked out of a sound investment one day or help you avoid investing during the later stages of a bubble cycle).

The BZW Equity-Gilt Study (Facts and figures going back to 1918 on Equities, Gilts and the Cost of Living Index. Great for looking at corelations).

The Death of Inflation - Roger Bootle (Bootle saw the change coming 10 years ago, while inflation was still raging. He's a genius economist imo).

A Very English Deceit - Malcolm Balen (The South Sea Bubble and an excellent account of how London's financial power house started in the early 1700's. Insurance companies and share traders in coffee shops, no less).


20 years of dividends and still going strong

Here's its pick of 20 UK companies that have at least held their annual dividends since 1990, together with their forecast payouts for financial years 2010, 2011 and 2012:

Vodafone Group Mobile Telecoms 180 8.3 8.9 9.5
Royal Dutch Shell Oil & Gas Producers 2,145 107.2 111.2 118.0
Tesco Food Retailers 403 13.1 14.9 16.0
Schroders General Financials 1,851 34.0 37.0 40.0
Serco Group Support Services 553 7.2 8.0 8.8
Meggitt Aerospace & Def. 349 8.6 9.2 10.0
Cobham Aerospace & Def. 209 6.0 6.6 7.3
Derwent London REITs 1,552 29.4 32.1 35.0
PZ Cussons Personal Goods 360 5.9 6.4 6.9
Spirax Sarco Engineering 1,843 41.2 45.3 49.8
Halma Electronics 340 8.5 9.1 9.8
Close Brothers Group General Financials 858 39.0 39.0 39.0
Brown N Group General Retailers 280 10.8 12.3 13.5
Rathbone Brothers General Financials 1,150 42.0 42.0 42.0
Greggs Food Retailers 480 17.5 18.6 19.9
Daejan Holdings Real Estate 2,781 74.0 74.0 74.0
AG Barr Beverages 1,150 23.1 24.5 25.7
Cranswick Food Producers 850 25.0 27.5 30.2
Oxford Instruments Electronics 617 8.4 8.8 9.3

Filed Under: Income Investing,


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National Grid plc is an electricity and gas utility company focused on transmission and distribution activities in electricity and gas in both the United Kingdom and the United States. The Company's segments include UK Electricity Transmission, which is engaged in high voltage electricity transmission networks in Great Britain; UK Gas Transmission, which is the gas transmission network in Great Britain and United Kingdom liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage activities; UK Gas Distribution, which includes approximately four of the eight regional networks of Great Britain's gas distribution system, and US Regulated, which includes gas distribution networks, electricity distribution networks and high voltage electricity transmission networks in New York, and New England and electricity generation facilities in New York. Its other activities relate to non-regulated businesses and other commercial operations not included within the above segments. more »

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Severn Trent Plc treats and provides water and removes wastewater in the United Kingdom and internationally. The Company provides clean water and wastewater services through its businesses, Severn Trent Water and Severn Trent Business Services. It operates through two segments: Regulated Water and Waste Water, and Business Services. The Regulated Water and Waste Water segment includes Severn Trent Water Limited's wholesale operations and household retail activities, and related support functions. The Business Services segment includes the Operating Services businesses in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Italy; its renewable energy business, and Severn Trent Water Limited's non-household retail business. The United Kingdom Operating Services provides contract services to municipal and industrial clients, and the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MOD). The United States Operating Services provides contract services to community, municipal and industrial clients. more »

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Aviva plc is a holding company. The Company provides customers with long-term insurance and savings, general and health insurance, and fund management products and services. Its segments include United Kingdom & Ireland; France; Poland; Italy, Spain and Other; Canada; Asia; Aviva Investors, and Other Group activities. The United Kingdom and Ireland segment consists of two operating segments: Life and General Insurance. The principal activities of its French operations are long-term business and general insurance. Its Poland Activities in Poland consist of long-term business and general insurance operations. Its Italian operations are long-term business and general insurance. The principal activity of the Canadian operation is general insurance. Its activities in Asia consist of its long-term business operations in China, India, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan and international operations. The Aviva Investors segment offers a range of asset management services. more »

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  Is National Grid fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »

334 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

Isaac 31st Dec '10 215 of 334


Dow +11% GOLD +29%
S&P 500 +13% SILVER +82%
Nasdaq +17% PALLADIUM +94%
EUR. STKS. +9% USD/CHF -10%
CAT +64% USD/YEN -12%
H-P -18% USD/EURO +7%
AIG +93% Oil +15%
NETFLIX +228% NAT. GAS -20%

Looks like Gas prices were one of the weakest commodities in 2010. All the more reason to hold sterling resources as somepoint gas prices will have to rise & Sterling owns 30% stake in Breagh, which is a large gas field in the North Sea as well as significant Gas assets in Romania.


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Isaac 31st Dec '10 216 of 334

Condor Resources Plc

Condor Resources ("Condor" "Group" or the "Company"), the AIM listed Central
American gold and silver exploration company

This stock is up about 2000% in 2010, one of the best performing.

2 Year chart. Click to open a chart window


aleoap - Won the stock challenge competition with +469% return in 2010.

Interesting to see quite a lof of money is lost in the spread from stockpicdkers in the top 10. Clearly one has to be good at picking small caps to do well in compeitions like these.


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bugsmunny 1st Jan '11 217 of 334


earlier I posted some caution about the markets and you said I was entitled to my opinion, suggesting you disagreed.

However subsequent posts from you seem to support my opinion.

People have been predicting a housing market crash for years. And I suspect many here also thought that was more likely than the sweeping financial disaster which occurred - and in my view is still occuring.

I do not know whether or not house prices will correct next year - there seems to be many incentives not to allow the market to fall. The consequence seems at least from anecdotal view that it's risky and expensive to move unless you really have to. Prices remain high with a relatively small number of transactions.

I think many here are invested in commodities so we have been rewarded and protected from surging prices but many businesses and individuals are not. I can't help but suspect that this will feed through in due course to inflation and a reduction in people's spending power.

It will be interesting to see whether the stockmarket continues to rise - as always share prices tend to represent hope rather than reality, those seeking higher returns may be tempted in.

But is there the real economic power to return to earlier highs, I'm not at all convinced.

Investing in individual companies with low debt, cash and a growth story or outer still seems the only way forward - the FTSE and other indexes simply measure something fairly meaningless - a kind of vote for the average.

Happy New Year


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Isaac 1st Jan '11 218 of 334

Charts of last years Best Small cap performers

2 Year chart. Click to open a chart window
2 Year chart. Click to open a chart window


Well that is the top 10. Don't really fancy posting 100 charts......One thing people will notice is most of the gains have come from 2H/Q4. Does that mean if we can work out which stocks will do well in 2H we can work out what next years multibaggers are likely to be?

What is interesting is one did'nt have to be invested for most of the 1H to make extraordinary gains.

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Isaac 1st Jan '11 219 of 334

Tips in the papers for 2011

The Times, Tempus Tips for 2011
BHP Billiton, BG, Northern Petroleum, Catlin Group, Tullett Prebon, Intermediate Capital Group, Cookson Group, Capita, F&C Asset Management and e2v technologies.

The Telegraph – 2011 tips
Petrofac, Aviva, Avocet Mining, RBS, Barratt Dev., Royal Dutch Shell, Vodafone, Mulberry, Informa, and Bowleven.

The Independent – 2011 tips
African Barrick Gold, Arm Holdings, BHP Billiton, BP, Domino Printing, F&C Asset Management, Morrisons, Rio Tinto, Smith & Nephew and Sports Direct.

Daily Express – 2011 tips
BHP Billiton, Capital Drilling, China Food, Entertainment One, Endace, Johnson Matthey, Fenner, Lloyds, Renovo Group and Unilever.

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Isaac 3rd Jan '11 220 of 334

The year of the middle class squeeze: Why 2011 will be toughest 12 months since 1982

The list of pain includes:

  • The number of higher-rate taxpayers is expected to jump by around 700,000 as the salary at which the 40 per cent band begins drops to £42,475.
  • VAT rises from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent on Tuesday, a £12.1billion tax grab, equal to an extra £33million a day for the Government coming out of shoppers’ wallets.
  • The rate of National Insurance – a tax in all but name – will increase by 0.5 percentage points from April.
  • Paltry pay rises for most workers which will be far below inflation, and the majority of public sector workers who earn £21,000 or more beginning a two-year pay freeze.
  • Loan rates set to jump, adding an extra £60 a month, or £730 a year, on to the average mortgage repayment.
  • Child benefit frozen at £20.30 for the eldest child, and £13.40 for each subsequent child, for the next three years – before being axed for higher-rate taxpayers in 2013.
  • Another year of dire savings rates, with the average saver currently getting less than 1 per cent on the average instant access account.
  • House prices predicted to slump by up to 10 per cent.

Latest figures, from the AA, show the average price of a comprehensive car insurance policy has shot up from £569 to £792 in just 12 months.

To make matters worse, the average price of petrol has hit a record of £1.24p per litre. Diesel is close to a record with the average price per litre currently at £1.28, 5p below the all-time time. 

The biggest hit is likely to come when interest rates rise – pushing up the cost of a mortgage for the millions on variable rate deal.

Experts forecast that the Bank of England, which has kept rates at a historic low of 0.5 per cent, will start to raise them this year.

The CBI, the business lobby group, expects they will hit 1.25 per cent by the end of 2011 and 2.75 by the end of 2012

Read more:

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Isaac 3rd Jan '11 221 of 334

The politicians are ALL the same, a bunch of lying toe rags. Whether it be Labour, Lib Dem or Conservative.


Osborne under fire as he jets off on £11,000 ski holiday... while British families struggle with austerity measures HE brought in

Read more:

Atleast with shares, the shareholders can build up a stake and oust directors from the boards as Carmensfella's mate is trying to do here :  and then subsequently appoint competent folk who can do the job.


And having the right to vote every five years from a selection of 2 mainstream parties is not power to the people!! Especially when both parties are full of self serving numpties.

I think all these politicians should be sacked and Houses of Parliament should be represented by normal everyday people rather then these incompetent bunch of arses who are so far away from the real world.

Why can't we have a system where every 5 years about 80% of the politicians leave & the people that represent constituencies are ordinary British folk who live in the real world.

E.g. why can't a lawyer spend 5 years of his/her working life in parliament and then go back to their normal profession after 5 years in parliament.

Just think it would be so much different and interesting then the same old crap year after year.



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Fangorn 11th Jan '11 223 of 334

Interesting update from Interserve(IRV) today
Contract win and trading statement.

Happy to continue to hold here, and keep pocketing that seems enthused, up 10%!

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Fangorn 11th Jan '11 224 of 334

Here for the contract wins...

interesting to see how far their Middle Eastern exposure takes them. ME and Asia is where all the money is these days....

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Isaac 11th Jan '11 225 of 334


I think IRV is small beer compared to what SLG & CEO could do in the next 6 months.

Worth reading the sterling thread and the TMF links posted here :

CEO thread here :

My strategy is pretty simple, buy something with low downside & massive upside & then just be patient.

20% downside risk with 100%+ upside is how I roll :-)

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Fangorn 12th Jan '11 226 of 334

"My strategy is pretty simple, buy something with low downside & massive upside & then just be patient.
20% downside risk with 100%+ upside is how I roll :-)"

So we are moving away from the High Yield strategy I take it then? Because most of the shares you lissted at the beginning of the thread do not have massive upside potential!

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Isaac 12th Jan '11 227 of 334

Fang, The current yields in the market are not very attractive.

Dow hits highest level since 2008

FWIW I think markets will go higher for a few more months yet, perhaps peak mid of the year and then end slightly higher then it started towards the end of 2010.

I'm positioned to gain from market rises, If I was pushed for a peak target in 2011 I would go for 6900, which is just below a 15% uplift from current levels. Don't think markets will end the year around those levels though.....

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Shocker 13th Jan '11 228 of 334

Isaac... I'm predicting broadly sideways movement in the markets for the next 2 or 3 years. Even that might be optimistic. The rise of the last two years is largely thanks to inflation of the money supply IMO and that can't continue. I think the austerity measures being put in place may prove to be insufficient ; many firms, especially financials, have more deleveraging to undergo ; even without deleveraging the debt burden is causing whole states to sway all across the world ; social unrest can't help. I acknowledge the potential flow of money from bonds into equities, but I also predict more bailouts of companies and states this year, and the message so far has been that debtholders get bailed out and equity holders are the chumps... I expect some more sharp dips this year like we saw last summer.

It doesn't say to me not to invest in equities though, but to distinguish more clearly than ever between short- and long-term holds, and to look for quality on sale for my long-termers. What it says to me is... if you're going to buy stocks, get yourself a good chunk that will pay you cash for enduring this grinding readjustment to reality. That's why I'm on this discussion thread and why I hold several of the same companies as you recommended at the top. I bought Aviva, BAT, BP ( so cheap! ), BT, Catlin, National Grid, Shell and Vodafone. Had I the cash I would eagerly add Glaxo and Tesco.

One thing I'm curious about from you guys is your feelings on international dividend-yielding stocks. I've bought Telefonica, AT&T and Microsoft as long-term holds and am keeping tabs on Colgate-Palmolive ( too expensive at present ), Johnson & Johnson, Wal-Mart and others. Besides Telefonica none of these yield much more than the market, but they have as solid a record as one can hope for in growing free cashflows and increasing dividends going back decades. They're the sort of compounding stocks that can keep you smiling through another recession.

I see corporate earnings looking very healthy, I see the market rising and I see governments acting to prop up economies all around the world, but the inflation solution creates an ever more precarious situation and I feel the need to bear it in mind every time I buy a stock.

About politics... I hate them all too and I'll say no more.

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Isaac 15th Jan '11 229 of 334

Peter Schiff :

Interest rates could go higher then 14-15% hit in 1980, he says interest rates could be 5-6% at the end of 2011

Gerald Celente's Top Predictions for 2011 :

Governments will screw the people by extracting every penny they can - In Europe they call this Austerity. 2011 will be a wake up call for the man on the street where he/she understands the economic mess we are in.

Look for $2000/oz in gold in the not to distant future.

Marc Faber

Oil is going much much higher :

Jim Rogers - Buy Agriculture :

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Isaac 16th Jan '11 230 of 334


Forecast of further falls in 2011 as December sellers drop 3%

December sellers cut asking prices by 3% (£6,969) - falls now recorded in 5 of the last 6 months
· Rightmove forecasts that in 2011 sellers will continue to drop their asking prices with the
national average falling by up to 5%, with north/south extremes
· Upsides of pent-up demand and fewer marketed properties more than off-set by downside risks
of unemployment, increased forced sales, base rate rise and the ongoing mortgage famine
· 2011 a good year for: Landlords, job secure equity blessed trader uppers and deposit-rich
· 2011 a bad year for: Forced sellers, deposit and equity poor, tenants and first-time buyers

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Isaac 18th Jan '11 231 of 334

Lots and lots of media attention in the UK news and press about soaring Inflation.

It certainly won't be comforting for many London commuters with a front page headline on todays evening standard saying "Soaring Interest Rates on the Way"

About time I think.................

I watched Ray Boulger on the BBC news earlier this evening talking about if the BOE were to raise rates it won't reduce inflation as it is driven by commodity prices which is out of our control.

I sat there thinking what a load of nonsense. If the FED/BOE/ECB raised rates then commodity prices would drop. Anyone with a bit of common sense will realise that when you pump billions into an economy then it will cause prices to go up. 

It really annoys me that you have these individuals who are overpaid for talking rubbish.

Anyway I've been keeping an eye on the property market, nice to see some houses finally dropping in asking price.

It really escapes me as to why people are REACTIVE to the market. Individuals that could have got x amount for their house 6 months ago have only decided to reduce their house price to x amount. the problem is people won't buy it for x amount now and they will only have to reduce it again!

The housing markets are only going to deteriorate further, it does'nt matter that the government wants to save a bunch of reckless individuals. The markets will take its course eventually and no one can stop it.

Another thing that I find annoying is most people seem to think house prices are expensive but if they can they would still buy.....  

I think interest rates need to go significantly higher, banks should continue to rein in lending. Let the housing market drop, lower house prices are good longer term.

If inflation continues to accelerate it will hurt everyone long term, we would all be worse off. No point in saving the housing market & risking an inflationary depression.

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Isaac 18th Jan '11 232 of 334

I went to one of those Free property seminars last week talking about how to buy cheap property at Auction & talking about the approach one should take etc.

I still could'nt believe it that they were using examples of individuals who have about 10 credit cards and have managed to borrow about £170K of "free money" to buy a house & do it up & rent it out. So that every month the individual was taking home £100 or so.

The point the guy made was individuals put no money down but were making decent cash flow every month.

I seriously can't believe this type of rubbish is still being talked about....................

Oh and the speaker spent quite a bit of time rubbishing the bankers.............And no I did'nt sign up on their £800 3 day course....

It was surprising to see about 100 or so people attend the event though.....

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Isaac 18th Jan '11 233 of 334

Bank of England under pressure to raise interest rates after Inflation rockets

Markets responded to the shock figures by pricing in three rate rises before the end of the year, indicating an increase from the current record low of 0.5pc to 1.25pc. As recently as last month, markets were anticipating just one rise to 0.75pc by the end of 2011.

Simon Ward of Henderson warned the overshoot could get dramatically worse in the coming months. "The headline rate may reach 4.3pc in February, remaining at or above 4pc until late 2011," he said.

If we have a stronger £ it will be cheaper to import goods & therefore force down inflation. Commodities are priced in $, so why not have a stronger £ that buys more $ & in effect more commodities?

And those that save money will earn a decent interest & therefore have more cash to get by.


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bugsmunny 20th Jan '11 234 of 334

In reply to Isaac, post #231

I watched Ray Boulger on the BBC news earlier this evening talking about if the BOE were to raise rates it won't reduce inflation as it is driven by commodity prices which is out of our control.

It really annoys me that you have these individuals who are overpaid for talking rubbish.

So you say.


You conveniently forget, there's a huge new demand for raw materials, much of which is coming from China.  For decades the "West" grew fat and rich on cheap commodities.  Now there's some serious competition.

Fiddle with the interest rate all you like - it still won't change that underlying problem.  Seems like a perfectly valid view.



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