| Joyful July For >20%......

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27th Jun '13 by flyingbull

9 comments 4742 reads

For the July 2013 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

Youi may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the July competition is midnight on Sunday 30 June 2013. Results will be posted on this thread asap after the July month end.

Good luck!!!!!

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Flyingbull

Premium Member

9 comments

Fangorn

28th Jun '13

For the +20% has to be GKP.
Still awaiting this elusive court case judgement which apparently is due any time. If the gossip is to be believed it will come from the end of July on wards,and by 23rd august at the latest.
Just a questioning of waiting, patiently.

Court timetable can be viewed here.
http://www.justice.gov.uk/courts/court-lists/list-commercial

For the down, finger in the air time..
NOP.

Proselenes

28th Jun '13

UP : LRL - Leyshon Resources

DOWN : AST - Descent Resources

arkleseizure

28th Jun '13

Up: Falcon Oil and Gas - on Hess committing to Beetaloo.
Down: Falcon - on Hess walking and a duster in Hungary.

I doubt Falcon will be where it presently is in a months time.

(if it is permitted to have the same company in both categories?)

peterdm

29th Jun '13

My up is AST: Ascent have had a miserable few years, but recent developments and hopefully some soon to be signed agreements will see this rise.
Down = LHD. Lochard are between a rock and a hard place, but rejection of the Parkmead takeover is likely to be negatively viewed. Paradoxically, acceptance of it might not do much for either company, also.

dbfromgb

30th Jun '13

I would have liked as usual to pick AEX for the up. There is a heck of a lot going on in East Africa at the moment, and it is all pretty positive stuff. Just this weekend Norway (Statoil) has given support for further electrification in Tanzania, and today Barack Obama is expected to announce a programme of similar support across sub Saharan Africa - and Tanzanian gas will help power this. A new company Delonex has a war chest of $600m and is on the acquisition/farm in trail. Plans for LNG are advancing. In short the area is hot, hot hot. So why no farm in announcement? Well my guess is that we have been waiting for at least three bits of the jigsaw to fall into place. The first has recently been resolved - the revised Ruvuma PSA. The second should have been recently resolved - forward plans from the partners in the Nyuni PSA who were due to meet in June, important as it is possible/probable that the AEX share in Nyuni will be included in the Ruvuma farm out. The third, and perhaps most important though, is the much awaited new Tanzania energy policy, without which it is difficult to place a value on AEX's potential gas reserves. It is this last issue that may well drift, and even if it were announced tomorrow it would take some time to run the numbers on the back of this. Sale of USA assets could come at any time, but my gut feel is that when it does it will be met with a shrug - sufficient to repay the loan and provide some short term working capital, but not enough to excite - say $15-$20m. I continue to hold a significant position here on the basis that the true value will out in time (surprising to the upside, either farm in or sale of company), but am not expecting news until after the gas policy issue is resolved - I would love though to be proved wrong!

So my pick instead for July is my largest holding by far, SOCO (SIA) for the up. It s comforting that the share buyback programme should provide something of a floor, but the upside is the result of the H5 well (which the market appears to have ignored), and speculation over the capital return and dividend announcement which is now just around the corner at end August. As I see it if things go according to plan SIA will become that rare beast that qualifies as both an income and value share, with metrics that have it starting to appear on multiple screens as a result. £4.20 does not appear an unreasonable target given that only recently it was close to those levels at £4.00.

Apologies for the long post.

In short SIA for the up.

No down.

Impvesta

30th Jun '13

Up Soco (SIA) for me, also, please. Hopefully on the back of a successfull H5 well but, even if this fails to come up trumps, surely the market will start to anticipate the capital return/dividend before it is announced in August at the latest.

No down for me.

emptyend

30th Jun '13

It would be remiss of me to fail to pick SOCO International (LON:SIA) for the up this month, in the light of the various points mentioned above. There are also several wild card bits of news which may emerge. There's no rush though.....I'd rather see a biggish buyback of shares in the 340-350p range over the next two weeks - and then it may well be (IMO) that the capital return announcement is August's business.

For the down there is no shortage of candidates but it would be invidious to pick one.

arkleseizure

1st Jul '13

Hess walk from Beetaloo, can I claim my -20% prize for Falcon now please - or must I wait for the Hungarian duster?.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/58539/falcon-chief-says-hess-decision-puts-co-in-stronger-position-major-interest-australia-permits--58539.html

flyingbull

2nd Aug '13

The July averages seem to be stabilising after a negative June. Perhaps we can now long forward
to second half of the year with some hopes…..

For the Up competition in July, GKP ran ahead by a respectable 16.1% before the court case results.
Well anticipated by Gary1966, Slickreturns and Fangorn. Congratulations!!!

For the Down competition, TRP not so towering due to fund raising, dropping a painful 25% in
July. Congratulations to Luminoso for winning this competition!!!

Any error in the results, please email me and I'll re-post later.

">20% Up" Competition Results:

-0.1% Average

16.1% GKP Gary1966 Fool
16.1% GKP Slickreturns Fool
16.1% GKP Fangorn Stockopedia
14.5% SOU Upthediff Advfn
14.5% SOU Bengee Advfn
14.4% NOP Adikcd Fool
14.4% NOP GHH Fool
11.4% AMER Bigwavedave Advfn
10.9% AOI (Canada) Casanare Fool
9.0% HAWK Thegreatgeraldo Fool
8.3% DGO Ewm55 Fool
7.1% CEO Luminoso Fool
6.3% BLVN WShak Fool
5.3% SIA Peterbill Fool
5.3% SIA Dbfromgb Stockopedia
5.3% SIA Impvesta Stockopedia
3.4% LRL Proselenes Stockopedia
2.9% CHAR flyingbull Fool
2.7% SLG (Canada) Loglorry Fool
1.5% FPM Fleecednflogged Fool
-0.7% PCI Bonesthreezero Fool
-1.0% FEP Fireplace22 Advfn
-6.7% ARG Theshareguru Advfn
-8.9% AEX Oldperro Fool
-8.9% AEX Eastheath Fool
-8.9% AEX Luckyswimmer Fool
-11.0% CLNR Liquidmillionaire Advfn
-11.5% NCT Angeln1 Advfn
-12.7% AST Peterdm Stockopedia
-14.8% FOG Arkeseizure Stockopedia
-18.2% SRSP Fitehills Advfn
-18.2% TRAP Bomfin Advfn
-33.3% RIA Sawney Fool
-34.7% HRT (Canada) Lanaken Advfn

">20% Down" Competition Results:

0.2% Average

-25.0% TRP Luminoso Fool
-21.2% GBP Adikcd Fool
-14.8% FOG Arkeseizure Stockopedia
-14.0% RRL flyingbull Fool
-12.1% AST Sawney Fool
-12.1% AST Eastheath Fool
-12.1% AST Proselenes Stockopedia
-8.9% AEX Oldperro Fool
-8.9% AEX Slickreturns Fool
-8.6% VOG Upthediff Advfn
-7.3% FAST Angeln1 Advfn
-4.8% PMG Bomfin Advfn
4.1% BPC Bengee Advfn
9.8% SER Bigwavedave Advfn
10.3% NEW Ewm55 Fool
12.2% EME Gary1966 Fool
14.4% NOP Fangorn Stockopedia
14.5% SOU Theshareguru Advfn
21.9% LHD Fleecednflogged Fool
21.9% LHD Peterdm Stockopedia
22.1% FRR WShak Fool
22.1% FRR Liquidmillionaire Advfn

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Joyful July for >20%......

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Flyingbull

9 comments

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