Leisurely July for >20%.........

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26th Jun '10 by flyingbull

21 comments 3326 reads

For the July 2010 “>20%” monthly oil stock competition, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the July competition is midnight on Wednesday 30 June 2010.

Good luck!!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

21 comments

fuiseog

26th Jun '10

With Dominion Petroleum (LON:DPL) spudded at the Lake Edward basin in Uganda on June 21st with July completion forecast, and a very low SP, I'll stick with it again for >20%.

If it's an either/or situation I hope I'm wrong and EE is right.

fuiseog

ryanandbethan

26th Jun '10

FB.
I'll go with BP (LON:BP.) this month.
I think there could be at least a 20% swing either way as the disaster unfolds.

Let me know if you need a hand collating the data ?

Cheers

ryanandbethan

26th Jun '10

Just to be clear BP for + 20% and - 20%

Thanks

flyingbull

26th Jun '10

ryanandbethan, Yes please. You compile the entries and I'll do the prices. Cheers a lot! fb

flyingbull

30th Jun '10

The last few days have been quite exciting for obvious reason.....but do not forget the July entries are accepted until midnight on Wednesday 30 June!! fb

Impvesta

30th Jun '10

Nautical Petroleum (NPE) for the 20% rise please.

No down.

Thanks

Impvesta

flyingbull

30th Jun '10

>20% Up, EO.

Here are my reasons:

I prefer to use EO's numbers. Based on the PMO's Catcher East news release and the subsequent interview with PMO as reported in the press, it looks like it now has a strategic interest in the whole block (Catcher, Catcher East, Cathcer North, Cather SW and "ALL" the prospects and leads), either to obtain Operatorship or to increase their working interest. Hence their reserves numbers are bound to be "conservative".

Given Lowersharpnose http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11964159&sort=postdate has verbal confirmation from Encore that the 300 mmbbls oil in place figure is a "current best guess" number and not a "upper limit" for the Catcher area (Catcher, Catcher East, Cathcer North and Cather SW), I'm therefore happy to assume a high chance of finding oil at Catcher SW and Catcher North.

Assuming a 50% recovery factor for the 300 mmbbls oil in place, EO.'s share is 22.5 mmbbls. Since the field is not deep at 4000-5000 feet with excellent reservoir and oil qualities, the development is going to be relatively cheap! I am beginning to think my rough £20/bbl for NPV calculation is a bit low. Of course an aquisitor is unlikely to pay for the full NPV value but given the developability of the field and for the whole block (further exploratory and appraisal drilling should be relatively, the chances are, EO. with its' cash pile will not accept any ordinary takeover price. It has to be an extremely good one. For simplicity, using £13.3/bbl, EO.'s 22.5 mmbbls, "just" in the Catcher area could easily fetch £300 mm. Imagine some of the other prospects are also proven at a later, perhaps a phase II driling program, the next 6 months has a good chance of doubling the current share price. Of course, a bit of luck is still required. But with proven exploration expertise in EO., who would bet against EO. now their sails are up and the wind is blowing in the right direction....

By the way, I have a funny thought early this morning while driving to work. It put a smile on my face! :-) I was thinking: EO. is like an experience mummy chicken who has laid eggs before and watches the chicks hatched, one by one. She has a good idea of the number of chicks that will be successfully hatched. On the other hand PMO is a first time mummy chicken who hasn't hatched chicks before. Now that she has laid the eggs but unsure of what happens next. So she is counting the chick one by one as they hatch....... ;-)

For the >20% Down, RPT....licence problems.

fb

REO100

30th Jun '10

As usual a few candidates this month but I am going for AEX > 20% - simple that red tape in Tanzania has got to bust at somepoint and we might get some more news on US activity - there was that placing !

I was sorely tempted to go for EO. - have held for over three years adding at the low points along the way to try and get a good average. The times I have contacted the company it would be correct to say the outlook has been conservative (not a bad thing), however, Catcher does seem to excite them - they are comfortable with the quoted figure of 300 mmbbls and do believe with further appraisal the figure could be significantly increased, throw in Cladhan activity (the one everyone had focus on before Catcher) and sentiment could kick in. EO. has been packaged up for a sale for sometime - I think that date will be drawing nearer.

I will stick with AEX, but won't mind EO. winning.

Reo

Fangorn

30th Jun '10

BP for the 20% rise for me. Relief wells, well at least one of them is close to completion it seems. Barring a hurricane or two I can only see positives going forward. That and speculation about being taken over - the talk has already started (JPM analyst with his Shell or Exxon should take it over comments) which should provide a reasonable floor at the bare minimum.

AbAngus

30th Jun '10

Once again - thanks FB for doing all this (and to Ryanandbethan for helping FB)

For the up, things look better to me this month and there are a number of contenders:

Regal Petroleum (LON:RPT), on sorting out the Ukrainian problem
Bpc (LON:BPC), on a bounce back from its decline (which may have been in sympathy with BP)
Dominion Petroleum (LON:DPL), on success at Ngaji (results due mid July, it may be optimistic to hope for success on a first well, but what the heck)
Falkland Oil & Gas (LON:FOGL), results on Toroa due next week - 1.7bn bbls IIRC (49% to FOGL), AVO, CSEM both +ve... plus oil shows in the site survey cores...
Independent Resources (LON:IRG), its a bit early to expect formal news on Rivara but it could be possible. Oryx and then Sidi Toui are to spud soon. Could be news of a farm out of Fiume Bruna.
SOCO International (LON:SIA), for reasons well known.
Petro Matad (LON:MATD), the results of DT-1 should be known at the end of the month
Nighthawk Energy Plc (LON:HAWK) (...ugh! do I hear people say? - Yes, but who knows what the Macquarie tender process will produce? Not that HAWK graces my portfolio any longer.)

I am going to go for an out and out gamble on DPL .....or FOGL .... or DPL ...... dammit, I'll go for FOGL. At least the news will be out sooner.

No down.

Thanks. AA

djpreston

30th Jun '10

Quicl one from my deathbed.

Petroceltic International (LON:PCI) for the up - tunisia kicking off and now stupidly cheap given the results on Ain Tsila last year (campaign restarts later in the year) and poss farmout of some of AT interest.

Down? Frontera Resources Corp (LON:FRR) again - got to be trading insolvent now surely?

Fangorn

30th Jun '10

Death bed? Are you sick? Sorry to hear that.

DearLeader

30th Jun '10

Hi FB
I'll take a stab on Falkland Oil & Gas (LON:FOGL) to go down please. Non-productive HC's?

Aminex (LON:AEX) for the up bet please. Quite a nice flow rate for just the one well with 150bopd. That, and hopefully with production rising in time, seems like quite a nice underpinning cashflow to me. Will it be reflected in the SP in July?
KN-1 may move it. So could Alta Loma being sold.

cheers
DL

djpreston

30th Jun '10

Hi Fangorn

Bit of an exaggeration on myy part.

Had a party for my 5 and 7 year olds at the weekend - 52 kids at the house! Anyway, seems that one or two had had a bug so yday the 7 year old comes down with the trots and voms. Last night it went on to me and the 3 year old...hence the day off ill watching cbeebies and other such suitable entertainment.

Thankfully seems like just a 24 hour thing.

Cheers

D

RedTedsRoadshow

30th Jun '10

Lots to choose from - BP definitely gonna do 20% but which way??? odds are surely the up but I'm not putting my money on it yet....

I'll go for NPE for the up on the 3rd Catcher well.

No down

alano20

30th Jun '10

Hi fb,

Up 20% CEO: Still well down on where they were in January, plus good news expected in July.

Down 20% FRR

flyingbull

4th Jul '10

July entries compiled by ryanandbethan; he can't wait till month end! ;-) fb

>20%	Name	Source

AEX	REO100	STOCKOPEDIA
AEX	DEARLEADER	STOCKOPEDIA
BLVN	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
BP.	RYANANDBETHAN	STOCKOPEDIA
BP.	FANGORN	STOCKOPEDIA
BP.	COOLWIL	FOOL
BP.	NIGELPM	FOOL
BTC	MOHO50	FOOL
CEO	ALANO20	STOCKOPEDIA
CEO	GRAVELBOURG	FOOL
CEO	TGG	FOOL
COV	CHRISWALDEN	FOOL
DGO	EWM55	FOOL
DPL	FUISEOG	STOCKOPEDIA
DPL	HAOMA	FOOL
DPL	OHISAY	FOOL
EME	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
EME	SPARKY147	FOOL
EO.	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
EO.	EASTHEATH	FOOL
EO.	WSHAK	FOOL
FOGL	ABANGUS	STOCKOPEDIA
SEY	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
FPM	CRANBROOK2	FOOL
HOIL	HYWEL	FOOL
MATD	FATPROPHET	FOOL
MATD	GARY1966	FOOL
NOP	FLEECEDNFLOGGED	FOOL
NPE	IMPVESTA	STOCKOPEDIA
NPE	REDTEDSROADSHOW	STOCKOPEDIA
NPE	HDTH	FOOL
PCI	DJP	STOCKOPEDIA
PCI	SAWNEY	FOOL
PELE	LUMINOSO	FOOL
RPT	JPGH	FOOL
RRC	SALTY39	FOOL
SIA	EE	STOCKOPEDIA
SIA	JOHNNYLITE	FOOL
SIA	MALBROOKE	FOOL
VPP	JIMARILO	FOOL


<20%	Name	Source

AST	EASTHEATH	FOOL
BP.	RYANANDBETHAN	STOCKOPEDIA
BP.	NIGELPM	FOOL
BP.	LUMINOSO	FOOL
CHAR	WSHAK	FOOL
COV	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
DNX	MALBROOKE	FOOL
DPL	JPGH	FOOL
FOGL	DEARLEADER	STOCKOPEDIA
FOGL	HDTH	FOOL
FOGL	OHISAY	FOOL
FOGL	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
FRR	DJP	STOCKOPEDIA
FRR	ALANO20	STOCKOPEDIA
FRR	HYWEL	FOOL
FRR	SAWNEY	FOOL
IAE	EWM55	FOOL
NTOG	TGG	FOOL
OEX	HAOMA	FOOL
PPC	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
PVR	JIMARILO	FOOL
RPT	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
RPT	FATPROPHET	FOOL
RPT	MOHO50	FOOL
RPT	FLEECEDNFLOGGED	FOOL

emptyend

4th Jul '10

I notice that no-one* went for DNX

*apart from KNOC ;-)

.....I did, however, note that:

I'll pass again on the downs (especially as the sector as a whole is starting to look very cheap to me now, with virtually every company I look at having its explo upside in for free.......a situation which surely can't last long before M&A reprices the sector)

flyingbull

4th Jul '10

Hi ee,

If past performance is anything to go by, the last 6 months' result would suggest DNX would have a fight on its' hand to win the July competition ;-) The last two months have seen extraordinary winners. When normal service resumes, it is more likely that stocks have rises of 40-55% would stand a good chance of winning a monthly stock competition.

Winners of the >20% Up competition over the last 6 months:

Jan,   WBN,   +55.6%
Feb, MATD, +39.5%
Mar,   COV,    +40.1%
Apri,   XEL,     +42.9%
May,   RKH,   +537.8%
Jun,   EO.,   +209.8%

fb

flyingbull

2nd Aug '10

For the >20% up competition, MATD was the star performer in July with an incredible rise of 253%! Congratulations to Gary1966 and FatProphet!! Far from being a leisurely July, the great rise continues from “red hot June”! The average gain was 15.8% for July, not far off the 19.8% gain in June.

For the >20% Down competition, FOGL was unlucky with drill bit with a -48% reduction but Dearleader, HDTH, Medauntouchable and Ohisay made the right prediction! Congratulation to them!

The two sets of results compiled by fb and RnB are as follows:

>20% up results:

15.8%	Average

253.7%	MATD	FATPROPHET	FOOL
253.7%	MATD	GARY1966	FOOL
52.0%	PELE	LUMINOSO	FOOL
49.2%	FPM	CRANBROOK2	FOOL
27.3%	BP.	COOLWIL	FOOL
27.3%	BP.	FANGORN	STOCKOPEDIA
27.3%	BP.	NIGELPM	FOOL
27.3%	BP.	RYANANDBETHAN	STOCKOPEDIA
26.4%	COV	CHRISWALDEN	FOOL
22.4%	RPT	JPGH	FOOL
19.9%	BLVN	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
9.9%	EO.	EASTHEATH	FOOL
9.9%	EO.	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
9.9%	EO.	WSHAK	FOOL
8.8%	EME	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
8.8%	EME	SPARKY147	FOOL
7.5%	AEX	DEARLEADER	STOCKOPEDIA
7.5%	AEX	REO100	STOCKOPEDIA
7.0%	BTC	MOHO50	FOOL
6.6%	SIA	EE	STOCKOPEDIA
6.6%	SIA	JOHNNYLITE	FOOL
6.6%	SIA	MALBROOKE	FOOL
3.7%	HOIL	HYWEL	FOOL
3.0%	CEO	ALANO20	STOCKOPEDIA
3.0%	CEO	GRAVELBOURG	FOOL
3.0%	CEO	TGG	FOOL
2.9%	DGO	EWM55	FOOL
-0.5%	VPP	JIMARILO	FOOL
-7.5%	PCI	DJP	STOCKOPEDIA
-7.5%	PCI	SAWNEY	FOOL
-7.5%	RRC (USA)	SALTY39	FOOL
-10.3%	NOP	FLEECEDNFLOGGED	FOOL
-14.7%	SEY	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
-18.8%	NPE	HDTH	FOOL
-18.8%	NPE	IMPVESTA	STOCKOPEDIA
-18.8%	NPE	REDTEDSROADSHOW	STOCKOPEDIA
-35.3%	DPL	FUISEOG	STOCKOPEDIA
-35.3%	DPL	HAOMA	FOOL
-35.3%	DPL	OHISAY	FOOL
-48.0%	FOGL	ABANGUS	STOCKOPEDIA

>20% down results:

-1.2%	Average

-48.0%	FOGL	DEARLEADER	STOCKOPEDIA
-48.0%	FOGL	HDTH	FOOL
-48.0%	FOGL	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
-48.0%	FOGL	OHISAY	FOOL
-35.3%	DPL	JPGH	FOOL
-20.6%	NTOG	TGG	FOOL
-18.1%	IAE	EWM55	FOOL
-13.3%	FRR	ALANO20	STOCKOPEDIA
-13.3%	FRR	DJP	STOCKOPEDIA
-13.3%	FRR	HYWEL	FOOL
-13.3%	FRR	SAWNEY	FOOL
-8.9%	PPC	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
-0.6%	PVR	JIMARILO	FOOL
11.6%	CHAR	WSHAK	FOOL
14.5%	AST	EASTHEATH	FOOL
22.4%	RPT	FATPROPHET	FOOL
22.4%	RPT	FLEECEDNFLOGGED	FOOL
22.4%	RPT	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
22.4%	RPT	MOHO50	FOOL
22.7%	OEX	HAOMA	FOOL
26.4%	COV	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
27.3%	BP.	LUMINOSO	FOOL
27.3%	BP.	NIGELPM	FOOL
27.3%	BP.	RYANANDBETHAN	STOCKOPEDIA
52.0%	DNX	MALBROOKE	FOOL

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Leisurely July for >20%.........

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Flyingbull

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