So I've been crushed on this stock since last March. Can anyone help me with a sanity check?

Heads up, I work in the music // live entertainment industry and I definitely have a personal axe to grind. This company is one of the worst examples of monopolistic behavior // predator capitalism that I have ever had the misfortune to witness up close and personal and I wish them nothing but harm. My wife thinks I am allowing my hatred to influence my trading, which could be true, but I don't think so.

So I shorted this at $66 back in March of 2020 and again at $48. I legitimately thought this could end up being a $0 stock. I followed it all the way down to when it briefly touched $22 and now all the way back up to ATH of $83 (it was at ATH of $77 pre-COVID).

Now this is a company that has NEVER made money and was consistently losing $300m per quarter, even at full throttle. Since March of 2020, Livenation has seen its entire business go to zero, with an initial burn of $350m-450m per MONTH. At the outset of the pandemic, they made big noises about keeping their entire team intact, but over the months, they have had to make massive cuts. Their monthly burn is down to "only" $150m per month now, and since COVID they have added over $4.5billion in debt just to stave off bankruptcy. They are issuing debt that matures in 2027, selling significant stakes to the Saudis, anything to survive.

All of the models (Stockopedia etc.) suggest this is a company in severe trouble, yet the share price continues to rise. I am stubbornly holding onto my short position, but I am close to triggering margin calls. I can't see the live entertainment sector back to full steam ahead for another year at the least, with lots of potential pitfalls in between, during which time they might burn another $1-2billion. Can anyone help me see what I cannot - I mean, the broader markets are completely and utterly irrational, but this one takes the cake.

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

Already have an account?
Login here