So we now have the incredible situation of 27bn shares in lloyds in issue! Lloyds have sacrificed shareholder value to aquire HBOS because it gives them huge market share only to find that EU competition regulation mean they might not be able to exploit this monopoly.
Blank has gone (or is going) which I suppose is a good thing but no doubt he'll get a big payoff for bringing Lloyds down.
Hemscott has analyts consensus of a 24p loss per share for 2009 and for 2010 a loss of 12p per share.
Book value for 2009 is I think somewhere around 50p/share falling in 2010 further.
I think the only good news for Lloyds shareholders is that perhaps they might get back to 2007 earnings levels by 2011 or beyond where they made approxy £4bn. With 27bn shares in issue (and perhaps more by then) this would be an EPS of 14p. If we use a p/e of say 6 this might imply a 2011 share price of 84p.
To get back to around 120p a share (about my breakeven point) assuming a p/e of 6 we need either £5.4Bn of earnings after tax (but big tax credit to use up) or earnings of £4Bn and a p/e of 8.
So in short I don't see an improvement on the share price until we get to about 2011 and even then this is all dependent on Lloyds returning to 2007 levels of profit.
Thoughts?
Log
Just to follow up on this post. Switching to the Lloyds prefs mikght seems like a wise move at this point or at least after the open offer is taken up. LLPF currently yeild 18.5% priced at 330 which I'm told is the current offer. At this kind of yeild two years worth of coupons will see a 40% return on investment. A 40% uplift in the price of the common on todays close at 70p would imply a 2011 share price of 98p.
So the Prefs (bird in the hand) or a speculative price of between 84-120p I guess is the choice.
Obviously, the prefs are not guarenteed to pay a coupon but if they failed to then the common would be much worse off too.
Log
