While I like Paul Scott's contributions 99% of the time. I think his view on the Government LockDown is a tad too harsh.

This virus (or the government's response to it, depending on your point of view) has completely shut down huge parts of the economy. It's an unthinkable scenario.

Below is an excerpt from an article in this week's Trendwatch, editor Rob Cullum.  

According to Imperial College London, which has been influential
in shaping the government’s response, had the government not imposed a lockdown, there would have been at least 100,000 deaths in
this country, possibly up to 250,000. With the lockdown in place, the
latest scientific prediction is that the virus will have peaked in this
country within 3 weeks. Cases and deaths should then start declining. In 12 weeks' time, the epidemic should be over in this country.
The number of deaths may finish up at less than 20,000. Incidentally, it’s reckoned that up to two-thirds of the death toll is accounted
for by victims who are nearing the end of their lives and would have
died anyway within 12 months.
Of course, while the epidemic may be over in 12 months, the recovery of the economy from the hit, estimated to be between 15% and
25% of GDP, will take a lot longer.


The good news is that, even though we haven’t got a vaccine yet,
we still have a defense: the lock-down. By reducing contact between
people so that all infected people pass the disease on to less than one
other person on average, simple arithmetic dictates that the epidemic
will die out. It will also “flatten the curve” – the peak will be lower,
ensuring that hospitals are not overwhelmed.
It seems to have worked in China, which is reporting no new COVID
-19 cases of domestic origin… if you believe in their statistics. Restrictions on movement there are slowly and cautiously being lifted.
Of course, lock-downs do cause enormous economic damage,
which will certainly drive the world into recession. But it’s quite possible that, once the outbreak is under control – probably in the summer – the economy may rebound quite quickly.

Good luck with your investing and keep safe

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