Macro musings

17th Feb '09 by rpcroft

31 comments 9853 reads

Thoughts about currencies, bonds, stocks and gold.

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Rpcroft

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31 comments

Gradders73

26th Mar '09

It's inevitable. I would love to know what the Chinese are saying directly to the Americans (assuming they still talk) but the noises are loud and clear. As we know the Chinese have about $4 trillion in various IOUs (I am including currency) but with such an enormous part of the economy being concealed, I wouldn't be surprised if there's another $2 trillion under the mattresses (and who really knows just how many dollars there are in the world) which would mean that there are $60,000 of debts to the Chinese per US household. Anyway, before I get my "the end is nigh" sandwich board out and hit the streets, I will say strengthening the role of the SDRs would allow the deflation of US denominated assets in a managed way. Should be bullish for oil, gold, NOK, CHF and Euro etc and bring some support for Sterling. Also, good for miners with big reserves. What's interesting is no suggestion from the Chinese to include the RMB....

Keep an eye out on these failed govt auctions, an inflationary jolt could follow.

rpcroft

29th Mar '09

Stocks sold off on friday and the dollar rallied strongly. I expect more of the same into the beginning of next week.

I will view the weakness in stocks as a buying opportunity. S&P500 in the 780's will have me backing up the truck.

Gradders73

30th Mar '09

So the Dollar continues to claw back gains. Question is, why? Perhaps it is all the other central banks (as per Swiss) heavily selling their currencies when volumes are lower. There may be some buyers of Treasuries and other (toxic) assets to get into the Geithner giveaway and a bit of profit taking after the big moves previously. I've had about 20% of my assets in NOK since the end of last year and I am sticking to the currency, but looking to move into the equity index (one way is via OBXEDNBN:NO on Bberg) as it's looking very attractive. One of the things I like is that pensions are managed by the state fund and therefore you don't have the deficit problem of many other markets, which will dampen growth in many companies if inflation does take hold, though it won't be seen immediately as pension valuations seriously lag.

I only have exposure to 2 US equities, one of which is Citi, which was a dead cat punt at $1.20 (but felt that long Gold gave a good proxy hedge for that.) I just don't have any feel for other US stocks right now and also feel that the global recovery will be lead by the BRIC countries.

Interesting story in the FT about Russia proposing a partial return to the gold standard, with inclusion of Gold and Yuan into the SDR - seems very sensible to me.

Gradders73

7th Apr '09

There's been a lot of talk about the use of oil and other commodities as a benchmark for a new reserve currency. Chavez has proposed one idea and Medvedev suggests oil should be part of the SDR basket. We have already seen some loans backed by oil depository receipts, which could easily be on traded. There's an article in the FT today talking of oil as money.

I can see this being particularly interesting to China. China lends money (gets the cash out of the door in one lump) and is repaid in commodities instead of interest plus principal. They have a loan deal with Russia, to be repaid in oil and I suspect this will happen more and more. It helps the Chinese Dollar concentration risk, helps out the resource rich cash poor countries who have massive amounts of short term borrowing maturing this year and reduces the role of the Dollar as the global reserve currency and the reliance of emerging markets on US banks. The other advantage is reducing the risk of a precipitous dollar decline if China tries to dump assets and dollars on the "open" market. The dollar will decline as a consequence, as the need to hold dollar reserves will decline. It will also damage the US banks as they have always, despite certain difficult periods, made a ton of money lending to emerging economies, and will be left with dodgy domestic credit card and mortgage assets.

As I see it, it's not too far fetched, but it's counterintuitive to economists. You don't actually need to use the Dollar as a benchmark for everything if you can agree conformity of standards for other things (eg a barrel of Urals vs Brent) and in many ways, there is much more certainty of the worth of a barrel of oil than it's value. The US Dollar after all has no worth, unless it's value drops below that of a sheet of loo paper. In my view, this is why oil also trumps gold, but using a variety of commodities would be more stable.

The current situation is as though the global economy got drunk on dollars and woke up in a minefield. Clearly, it needs to get out of there, but it must tread very carefully.

rpcroft

9th Apr '09

Some correlations seem to be being broken today (full moon):

Firstly the dollar is strong against EURO, GBP, Swiss Franc and yet stocks are UP. This is new. The Yen remaining weak perhaps is key.

The Dollar is down versus emerging market and commodity currencies like Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso, AUD, CAD...

So high yielding currencies and carry trades are back and world stock markets rallying but with the USD strengthening against euro, swiss, gbp and yen.

Interesting.

I see no reason these trends shouldnt continue for the coming month along with more selling of longer term government debt in the US, Japan and perhaps the Eurozone as risk appetites snowball. Gold and silver seem vulnerable to continued selling too.

Gradders73

9th Apr '09

There's another interesting one which is the rally in ZAR - up about 20% in a month, so South African gold bulls have been hurt. I suspect the flight to knee-jerk flight to the USD is over for now, but people are focused on the macro issues. In Euroland, you've got the good old Irish, to be sure, who've been living a fantasy life for the last decade and then on the other end you've got Greece which is going to blow. Both of these are a major test for the Euro, but more from a political perspective and the Swiss central bank is trying to keep the Franc in line with the Euro, not the Dollar. Traditionally, the BOJ always targeted Yen between 100 and 105 to protect exports, so they may be happy with this and trying to weaken it, but then the cynic in me thinks just about every central bank is trying to weaken it's currency..

I thinkgold is going to pull back to 800, Platinum looks a better bet for the near term. I expect gold will come back later in the year, but this may be simply be through USD weakening. It's interesting to look at some of the spread betting formats for gold though, as you can get a free quanto into a different currency, if you are bullish gold versus USD, but less so against your base currency.

rpcroft

20th Apr '09

The sell off here could become quite steep... we are overbought short term, market breadth has been declining and so has up volume

And the yen is strengthening which is always ominous.

If the S&P gets down to 800 or a touch lower that will be another great entry point.

Gradders73

21st Apr '09

Bank stocks got hit yesterday as people manage to work through the results and realise how bad the underlying picture is. As an aside, FASB rules have become a total joke for financial - they can pretty much decide what numbers they want and then adjust the methodology to fit. Dollar has rallied against most currencies and gold is back up. I have a funny feeling there might be something bad on the horizon - plenty of rumours around GE. If S&P500 hits 800 it might keep going....

Also, plenty of buyers have been expecting a short squeeze on Citi and expecting a rebound, owing to the short interest being about 20% of market cap, but this is mainly people going long the pref share short common, so it isn't really a short....

Time for a bit of caution...

rpcroft

21st Apr '09

I think we very likely go sub 800...as you point out, the question is whether or not we stop.

Is this a correction of the rally or is the rally over.

If it is a correction, as i suspect it is, then my tea leaves point to 780 as a likely turn around point but yes it could keep going...we have to await developments and look at the manner of the decline.

The delinquency rates in the US mortgage market are high and lenders had held off foreclosing until about a month ago, awaiting Obama's homeowner assistance program. Once it was out they started foreclosing the non qualifying delinquents. Every foreclosure not only further depresses houseprices but also reduces the broad money supply (As foreclosed homes are rarely bought with 100% financing)

Bank cards also have record delinquencies, so lots of head aches for US banks...which means demand for dollars.

The $52 Trillion of domestic US debt isnt going away.

How one squares this dollar strength scenario with being short term bullish (post 780 low) on stocks is a question. Unless Bernanke's new dollars are dished out fast we may be at new lows sooner than expected.

Must watch this carefully here.

Gradders73

21st Apr '09

Frankly, what I am looking for is some sort of decoupling - a realisation the global economy doesn't have to collapse owing to the problems in the US. They have restarted the foreclosure program, as I understood it. There's trouble brewing with the banks, as I see it. The results announced were a f***ing joke, owing to the FASB rule changes which will have Skilling chuckling in his cell in Houston. Frankly, of the big banks, JPM and Goldman are the only ones that I am sure would ride out the storm without the largesse of the US government. Apparently the stress test rumours below contributed to the falls yesterday..

http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/2009/04/leaked-bank-stress-test-reults.html

but Timmy says today it's all ok...

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWAT01129920090421

both of these could be true of course, it may be most are fine, just not the biggest such as BoA and Citi...

What I would say is I prefer to invest based on some sense of value. I am beginning to understand how much of the US equity market trades on margin, i.e. not with their own money, on a very speculative, short term basis.

What I can't get out of my head is the thought about the way the dollar rallied on the back of the global meltdown. I keep thinking of a tsunami of money flowing out of all asset classes and into the dollar. The thing about the Asian tsunami was the real damage was done not when the water came in, but when it went back out taking all those poor souls with it.

rpcroft

8th May '09

A reality check brought on by yesterday's disasterous Treasury bond auction may halt the stock bounce dead in its tracks.

If borrowing requirements are brought into clearer focus and the implications of higher interest rates thought through then another wave of gloom must follow.

The aim of QE is to artificially lower interest rates. An artificially low interest rate is a rip off by definition, so QE drives private capital out of government bonds causing a greater need for QE...and the vicious circle turns, soon arriving at the point where either money continues to be printed in ever increasing quantities and the system dies an inflationary death or much higher interest rates are accepted and there is a massive deflationary debt implosion.

Neither outcome is a rose garden. My preference would be deflation as the system would have chances of survival. The inflationary outcome, where the savings of the common man are worthless...this ends very badly, with the political system discredited, a barter economy and the rise of some firebrand rabble raiser and dark period.

All roads head for a brick wall for the US.

Gradders73

8th May '09

Feeling quite smug myself. I've been short gilts for a short while, then bought back just before the BoE. Felt they would try something, which would cause a brief rally before the decline started again. Turned out nicely and went back in short again about 5 mins after the release.

The market is seriously nervous about the tsunami of debt issuance, which QE is not going to stop. Frankly, all QE does is give a quick flip because you buy the bonds and then sell them back for a quick profit and it is not fooling the Chinese, who have become buyer of last resort.

The objective of the central banks is i) allow lending to start again, but what if there's no good credits out there ii) keep rates low for the new issuances. Don't understand how this can work, because the issued debt has to be greater than bought back and net the markets are going longer. I think they are at risk of an excess rally in stocks and they are keeping the price of precious metals down. I must be sad but at breakfast I am looking at the Shanghai commodity markets at breakfast and this tells me what's going to happen.

Can I just challenge one thing - your concern is inflation erasing the savings of the common man. I don't think the common man has savings, and they want to get the idiots who borrow too much back in the market. The ideal solution is inflation, not too much and not too little. Stagflation is the really dangerous thing (I don't think you get price deflation under any scenario, but you do get monetary deflation which will be a killer.) The thing to watch for, in my view, is price controls if stagflation becomes and issue, but then, given the dominance of big supermarkets and regulatory price controls on utilities, it will be hard to spot, but that's when hyperinflation could really kick in.

Generally, staying bullish commodities (fed up with gold as they aren't going to let it go), short government debt (who's going to buy it all apart from those "Cayman funds") and think emerging markets is going to be fine in the longer term (note the IMF admitting they vastly overstated the external debt of Eastern Europe?!!!) What I am picking up is the view that the global investors are thinking they can move forward from the problems in the western world. I think prices will continue to improve, but we will see the markets begin to differentiate between assets...

Gradders73

21st May '09

It's getting weird out there again. Spoke to one of my old mates yesterday, who's both very smart and very conservative (and right at the heart of the evil empire) and he said the dollar was going down the toilet, which is about the strongest thing I have ever heard him say. The Dollar is getting crushed, even with the S&P negative watch on UK, the currency is still up and Gilts may have sold off, but less than Treasuries. I have sold all USD equities and put back into GBP cash, keeping my Gold position (wherever the heck they've stored it,) but am selling Dollars vs GBP on the approx amount at the moment. The price has gone above $950 level now and silver still looks attractive, in fact all commodities are holding levels not in keeping with economic activity. The Chinese are going to make a couple of pointed comments about the dollar decline and I expect Treasuries to wobble further.

It may be a saving for Gilts as the economic picture in the UK is relatively ok and with the currency finding solid ground vs the majors, the appetite for new issues may hold up. Interestingly, today they held the largest auction (£5bn 5y 2.6 times oversubscribed) in the face of the S&P comment.

What worries me is what are they going to do next? They need to make sure Treasuries look attractive and they cannot allow yields to explode, but all markets seem to be pricing in higher inflation, which will kill corporate profits. On that note S&P looks like a tempting one to short based on P/E multiples, if you aren't scared of the PPT...

emptyend

22nd May '09

'lo Gradders,

FYI Bloomberg TV tonight was talking about doubts circulating over the US credit rating, following the UK being put on Creditwatch by S&P. I also noted that the US Treasury was reported as "investing" $7.5bn in GM - presumably that is this news: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKSRAtHlEdds&refer=home . There is a very serious issue looming when GM files for bankruptcy (which now seems certain*, notwithstanding the rise in their shares today....

* even CEO Fritz Henderson conceded that in a recent Bloomberg interview

....and that issue is noted here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5u0MEwLik7A&refer=home

Hedge fund manager George Schultze says he may avoid lending to any more unionized companies after being burned by President Barack Obama in Chrysler LLC’s bankruptcy.

Obama put Chrysler under court protection on April 30 after lenders balked at a proposal giving them about 29 cents on the dollar for their $6.9 billion in debt. The investors said the president’s plan favored a union retiree medical fund whose claims ranked behind them for repayment. It was offered a 55 percent equity stake in the automaker.

Pacific Investment Management Co., Barclays Capital and Fridson Investment Advisors have joined Schultze Asset Management LLC in saying lenders may be unwilling to back unionized companies with underfunded pension and medical obligations, such as airlines and auto-industry suppliers, because Chrysler’s creditors failed to block Obama’s move. The reluctance may put additional pressure on borrowers seeking capital in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

“Lenders will have to figure out how to price this risk,” Schultze, 39, said in a telephone interview from his office in Purchase, New York. “The obvious one is: Don’t lend to a company with big legacy liabilities or demand a much higher rate of interest because you may be leapfrogged in a bankruptcy.”

.....and here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaHYersTES2w&refer=home

The U.S. government’s reorganization plan for General Motors Corp., the nation’s largest automaker, is “blatantly unfair” to bondholders, said one investor, Mark Modica.

“If we just look at the offer, we have the Treasury and the UAW forgiving $20 billion of debt and getting 89 percent of ownership, and the bondholders are forgiving $27 billion and getting 10 percent ownership,” Modica, a bondholder, told Bloomberg Television. “If anyone thinks that’s fair, they’re not a GM bondholder.”

Watch the autos space - its going to get VERY messy indeed IMO!

Fangorn

22nd May '09

Yep, it seems bankruptcy next week is fairly inevitable. Too much car manufacturing capacity out there, particularly given that demand has been financed by excessive personal debt over the years - something has to give and the chickens seem to be coming home to roost finally.

Gradders73

22nd May '09

The Chrysler restructuring seemed to pass most in the media by, which is unsurprising. What you have is an administration going against the established legal practice and deciding that the obligations to the workers are senior to bondholders, with massive loss for bond holders, but a massive gain for those with CDS positions and net flat for the bondholders who were hedged (I think that was a large minority). Anyway, this is huge curveball - this was done to avoid negative publicity if they were seen as helping bankers not carworkers, but the economic costs will be massive. High yield investors go into the deal with a high propability of default occurring and this kind of uncertainty will need to be priced in.

So, EE, I am not going to watch the autos, but all sectors with employee cost problems (even British Airways today) and I am staying short govies...

siestainvestor

22nd May '09

I am very Bearish which seems to be the mood of this thread. Here is why...

Firstly I have been re-reading Napier's excellent book "Anatomy of the Bear". (Russell Napier, Harriman House Publishing)

Secondly, I went to the Graphite (GPE) AGM last week.

Napier studied the four major Bear bottoms in the twentieth century (1921, 1932,1949,1982). He found around sixteen common threads in these bear markets. His top four are that at the very bottom:

1. Tobin’s q ratio falls below 0.3x

q=(Market value of installed capital)/(Replacement Value of capital). Hence if Market Capitalisation is less than the replacement value of assets (i.e q<1) then the market is cheap. At the bottom of major bear markets the value of q has been less than 0.3.

Smithers [ http://www.smithers.co.uk/page.php?id=34 ] plots the current level (end 2008) as the same as its long run average (i.e. 0.63). The parameter varies between 2.9 (1999) and 0.3 (last seen in 1982). This suggests a bottom at around 0.3/0.63 x (end 2008 FTSE value) i.e 2100 (FTSE100 was 4434 at 31 December 2008).

A different commentator John Mihaljevic [ http://theguruinvestor.com/2009/03/18/tobins-q-ratio-modestly-bullish-sign/ ] estimated q=0.55 at end December 2008 and q=0.43 at end March 2009 when the FTSE was 3926. This implies a bottom of 2740.

2. Cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE) is well below average

The cyclically adjusted PE ratio which takes an average of profits over the previous ten years and adjusts for inflation is (Napier says) superior to the traditional p/e ratio because profits are volatile. At the January 2000 peak CAPE on the S&P 500 was 44.3; the previous peak, just before the crash of 1929, was 32.6. Its range at the four great bear market bottoms has been 5.2 - 9.1 (inflation adjusted). The current value is 15.3, which is about its long run average. [ see http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/1/hallelujah-stocks-finally-undervalued-shiller ]

This suggests the bottom of the next major cycle could see the FTSE around 2600, assuming the ratio changes due to price alone.

3. Equities become cheap very slowly

On average it takes 9 years from peak to bottom. Excluding the 1929-1932 bear market, which Napier argues is atypical, the average is 14 years. From the 2000 peak, this puts the bottom of this secular bear market at 2014 (or, of course, 2009 if you include 1929-32 in the average).

4. The Bottom happens at periods of great price disturbance (e.g. high inflation followed by deflation) so that there is great uncertainty about both (i) future corporate earnings and (ii) the price of low asset risk government bonds.

I would say there is great uncertainty over corporate earnings and an emerging sense that government debt is going to be more expensive to raise (i.e. gilt yields will go up dramatically for reasons rehearsed elsewhere in this thread)

Added to which:

At the Graphite Enterprise trust AGM last week, it was clear that:

(a) a company that was 50% cash and valued at a 35% discount to assets could not arrange debt from banks (on reasonable commercial terms) to cover obligations starting three years out (for which they had 3 or 4x asset cover) - this suggests that there is no effective commercial debt available at present

(b) there is no market for private companies at all: mark to market values might be 5 or 6 times EBITDA but no-one is selling at these prices and, if they wanted to, a buyer would not be able to fund the purchase with a material debt component

This sounds like a world where there is next to no commercial credit to lubricate the economy

Added to which:

We see no banks providing for

(i) defaults in commercial property [what about all those empty Woolworths buildings with more to come?]

nor for

(ii) defaults in lending to companies.

The figures here could be very large.

Added to which:

The current rally is arguably fuelled by Quantitative Easing etc which will have to come to an end sooner or later (I am old enough to remember the IMF bail out in Denis Healey's time). It will then get nasty.

So:

The options are:

(i) slit your throat now

(ii) short the FTSE (maybe the DB X-tracker FTSE short, Epic XUKS)

(iii) spend the stuff while it will still buy something and you are still alive

Enjoy the Bank Holiday

Gradders73

25th May '09

This is interesting stuff, but I am strongly of the opinion not to short the FTSE. Using comparatives of other bear markets is misleading and this sort of thing can lead to analysis paralysis, whereby you spend more time trying to work out the fair price that you lose your opportunity. There are many things that are unique in today's situation, most importantly:

i) it's all about leverage.

As Krugman has said, we have socialised the losses. The debt markets dwarf the equity markets and the levels of guarantees provided have brought into question the solvency of the sovereign nations themselves. The big FTSE players are global entities, which can immunize themselves from the problems of any one country. You cannot levy an asset tax on assets held in a different country, nor have a income tax on overseas income. It is the fiat currencies model itself that is most under threat. (I don't know where to begin dealing with the concept of replacement value of capital when it's patents on drugs, oil reserves, distribution networks, brands etc)

ii) there is a terrifying feedback loop on the markets

Since 1982, we have privatised almost everything, there is no industry outside of the markets. There is no state pension system. We are utterly reliant on the FTSE for pensions and insurance. If the FTSE falls to 2,500 all those names with huge pension schemes are insolvent, the insurance industry is almost insolvent. The government knows the economy will not survive such asset deflation and will throw enough money at the problem to force inflation.

Banks aren't lending money because they don't have the manpower and are in a state of confusion. They are dealing with the existing jumbo loans, they are trying to reeducate themselves on prudent lending and they have an abundance of choice, so it is hard for them to know where to begin.

I know they are accounting for defaults, maybe not sufficiently, but they are.

So, my advice:

i) don't slit your throat (it's messy), maybe just buy a nice bag of weed and go for a walk in the country - the world is still beautiful.

ii) don't short the FTSE, if you don't like it, don't buy it, but it's a much better investment that the S&P for example.

iii) maybe short govies (that's what I am doing) but be prepared for the P&L vol as they try and kick the can down the road a few times, short the dollar.

iv) buy commodities (I like silver, soft agri, maybe gold, oil and keep an eye on natural gas), and commodity currencies like NOK or even ZAR looks ok.

v) look into the survivor stocks - agro chemicals, tobacco, commodity names, emerging markets, esp mobile phones,

vi) stop trying to look for comparisons with Japan, the differences are too great.

vii) don't buy index linked products, they are a scam.

viii) when economists use terms like grim, remember they don't mean grim as in the Black Death, but grim as in "Boys in the Black Stuff"

siestainvestor

26th May '09

Gradders

We may have to differ:

1. History is important. It was ignored by our political masters in Afghanistan - anyone with the slightest knowledge of the local history would have resisted the temptation to fight another unwinnable war there.

2. Thinking does not necessarily lead to "analysis-paralysis". Indeed as you say in your post not buying may be a good solution.

3. "There are many things that are different today". This is obviously true but your factors, leverage and feedback loops, were both present in previous bears. In the 1921 and 1932 bottoms leverage was in the form of margin trading by individuals and firms - hence the suicides. The feedback loops were present too - banks went bust, economic activity slowed leading to downsizing, unemployment and homelessness. What makes you think we have not got this to come?

4. It is true that the authorities have acted quickly to put an Elastoplast on the banking system by socialising losses. But they cannot do this indefinitely without Weimar (or Zimbabwe) style inflation. The German inflation between the wars was caused by the burden of war reparations (driven by the French) which were "socialised". There are already signs that the UK government's ability to throw money at the asset deflation is limited.

5. There will not be much credit to lubricate the economy for (in my view) three years whilst the banks rebuild their balance sheets against a tide of new defaults and write downs. It is nothing to do with their disorganisation - it is all about capital rationing.

On your advice:

i. we can agree that I will not be cutting my throat

ii. I cannot see your argument for not shorting the FTSE (especially as you are prepared to short gilts)

iii. see ii. but I agree there will come a time when shorting gilts and bonds will be good as interest rates rise

iv. I agree that stabilisation of commodity prices is a leading indicator but it is probably too early (except perhaps oil as demand in the medium term is inelastic and supply is limited)

v. I agree on survivor stocks and would include tobacco - not sure about the others

vi. I did not mention Japan and don't follow their woes

vii. Why are index linked products a scam?

The key point is that IMHO it is impossible to determine fair value at present as one cannot confidently forecast future earnings if (like me) you believe the economy has to ratchet down again. It is very easy to lose 50% of your portfolio value in the fall out from a bear market rally. With inflation at zero, you can get a 2% real return by spreading your assets over several AA rated banks. This is preferable.

That said of course I am still invested for real in (among others) the stocks in my Stockpedia portfolio (although at half the level of capital employed that I had in 2007) so I won't miss all the upside!

Fortunately the market can act as arbitrator and I shall be delighted to eat humble pie if necessary this time next year.

Gradders73

26th May '09

I'm a huge skeptic of index linked because I don't think they properly price inflation (RPI/ CPI is kept low through various means and for various reasons) and the payout is lagging and if really high inflation does kick in, I am not sure what they will do, given the index linking of wages and pensions, the govt balance sheet will explode.

I am not saying to ignore history, just I am not convinced by looking for quantitative metrics like this - the price will be what people will pay.

I am also not predicting that the markets will go up, but if the FTSE did sit at the 2,500 level given the amount of fiscal stimulus they have thrown a at the problem, we are in big trouble, and quite likely in a stagflationary world, so I would prefer to be long something else as a 40% rise in a inverse tracker in Sterling may be less attractive than a long gold position.

Perhaps the one thing that is still unclear is whether this is a global economic contraction or a problem that is mainly one for the nations with high personal debts and overcostly social security, i.e. will BRIC pass the old world by?

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Rpcroft

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