WTI $49.63 +20c, Brent $52.65 -40c, Diff $3.02 -60c, NG $2.50 n/c
Oil price
The oil price had a good week, WTI was up by $4.09 and Brent rose by $4.52 as conflicting stories on inventories and more positive noises from the conference in London boosted confidence. With Chinese holidays keeping some traders out of the markets the final hurrah for the week was another fall in the Baker Hughes rig count. The total number was down 14 to 795 and with oil units down 9 to 605 the rig market was at its lowest since 2010. The EIA were more positive in its STEO and later today we shall see what Opec is saying in its monthly, if it moves towards the bulls then the recent rally will have been justified. Technically the crude charts are looking pretty positive as I have been talking about in the Brent breakout and at over $53 this morning that looks sound enough. If you want to look at some stock charts you should take a look at the US majors, XOM, CVX and COP are all looking very interesting.
I wonder whether Jim Ratcliffe thinks that it may just be time to start picking up assets around these prices? It seems that he has relieved Mikhail Fridman of $750m worth of gas fields in the North Sea and that despite saying that he thinks low oil prices ‘will be here for a while’ has just scooped 8% of Britain’s total gas output.
Finally the House voted 261-159 to overturn the crude export ban but I notice that guru Marcus Ashworth says today that ‘the democrats will murder it in the Senate and Barry will veto it anyway’….
Amerisur Resources
Amerisur is in the bucket list and very much a preferred stock in the sector, I took some time out at the end of last week to hear the updated story from John Wardle and Nick Harrison. The background for AMER is of a very strong management team with a lot of focus on the ground, (JW doesn't spend very much time over here) and the way that they have built the business shows that. The company has strong positive operating cash flow and that was proved by the reorganisation earlier this year in the face of falling oil prices. I will talk later about the discipline of the company…
