Malcy's Oil Report - GKP, CAZA, SOU

Thursday, Oct 01 2015 by
Malcys Oil Report  GKP CAZA SOU

WTI $45.09 -14c, Brent $48.37 +14c, Diff $3.28 +28c, NG $2.52 -6c

Oil price

The oil price took the EIA inventory stats pretty much in its stride and indeed both are up by around 50 cents in early trading this morning. The pointer from other inventory numbers this week had been taken and although the build was 4m barrels against estimates of a small draw prices actually ended around all square. The market as is its wont, chose to look at the EIA domestic production number which was a fall of 40/- b/d down to 9.1m b/d.

Another small straw to clutch comes in the shape of Hurricane Joaquin which shows that the season is not over by any means.

Gulf Keystone

The long awaited updated CPR from GKP has arrived and at first glance it looks pretty impressive. At Shaikan, 1P reserves are up 55% to 306m barrels with 2P numbers up 114% to 639m barrels. This means that the company evolves from measuring oil in place to recoverable reserves which is a significant step forward. The increased knowledge of Shaikan re-risks the field’s commerciality and with solution gas rather than water drive will give greater predictability of the field performance. As mentioned in my recent note on GKP, the company has increased the reserves per well thus lowering capex as less wells will be needed. At Sheikh Adi FDP work is under way which we are told will lead to a reclassification from 2C resources to 2P reserves which will be further good news.

Gulf Keystone are all of a sudden starting to look like the real deal and this is a decent step in the right direction. Having met new CEO Jón Ferrier I am pretty sure that management is hands on and will mean that the process of rebuilding continues. The risks associated with the company have not gone away by any means, geopolitical concerns will always be there and of course getting paid whilst looking better than a few months ago is far from being assured. Either way shareholders can rest a little easier this morning and I think that the modest mark up in the shares is more to do with the oil price than this very decent addition to the reserve base of the company.

Caza Oil & Gas

Caza has announced an update of its financing discussions, the agreement with Apollo to waive the financial…

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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (Gulf Keystone) is a holding company, which is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production. The Company operates in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. It operates through segments, including Kurdistan Region of Iraq and United Kingdom. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq segment consists of the Shaikan, Ber Bahr blocks and the Erbil office, which provides support to the operations in Kurdistan. The United Kingdom segment provides geological, geophysical, engineering and corporate services to the Company. It operates in the Shaikan oil field. The Shaikan block is situated over 85 kilometers northwest of Erbil, covering an area of over 280 square kilometers. more »

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Sound Energy plc is a Mediterranean upstream company. The principal activity of the Company and its subsidiaries is the exploration, appraisal and development to production as an operator in the oil and gas industry. Its principal activity is in Italy and Morocco. It operates through three segments: corporate; exploration and appraisal, and development and production. Its Tendrara permit is located in the Figuig Province, NorthEast Morocco. The Tendrara permit area, which is sub-divided into over eight blocks, covers a combined area of approximately 14,500 square kilometers. The Meridja permit is located next to its Tendrara license, and covers an area of over 9,000 square kilometers. The Sidi Moktar permit is located in the Essaouira Basin in central Morocco and is sub-divided into over three blocks (North, South and West). The Badile Permit is situated in the Piedmont Lombard Basin in northern Italy. Its Rapagnano Gas Field concession is located in Fermo Province, Marche Region. more »

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  Is LON:GKP fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »

2 Comments on this Article show/hide all

rhomboid1 1st Oct '15 1 of 2

Thanks as ever the reports, they make interesting reading. Is there any potential to flag where you may be being paid to provide advice or are your efforts not supported by the companies covered?

Many thanks

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Novice Investor 1st Oct '15 2 of 2

As subtle as an air raid Rhomboid. :-}


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About Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm has over 30 years' experience in the Oil & Gas sector and is a widely used media source. He often appears in print and on screen, and also writes an acclaimed daily blog read by much of the resources industry as well as investors both institutional and retail.Malcolm is a Founding Partner of HydroCarbon Capital, which provides independent advisory services to the Oil and Gas sector. He is a Director of the Maven Income and Growth VCT 4 PLC, a venture capital trust listed on the Premium segment of the main market of the London Stock Exchange.He started his career at Wood Mackenzie in 1979. He was an inaugural member of the No 1 Extel rated James Capel Oil & Gas team and also headed up corporate broking, acting for the Government in sales of British Gas, Britoil and other utilities. Subsequently he became Head of Equities and main board Director at Williams de Broe before moving to Teather & Greenwood. Following that, he ran his own consultancy for several years, acting for a number of quoted and private companies as well as being a board member and advisor. He has been a Director at Noble and then Westhouse Securities and has extensive contacts in the Oil & Gas sector globally. More recently Malcolm has been the lead advisor to an HSBC Zurich trust on oil, gas and energy investments as well as working with the oil team at VSA Capital.- See more at: more »


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