Malcy's Oil Report - GKP, GENL, AFR, MATD, AMER

Tuesday, Apr 07 2015 by
2
Malcys Oil Report  GKP GENL AFR MATD AMER

WTI $52.14 +$3.00, Brent $58.12 +$3.17, Diff $5.98 +17c, NG $2.65 -6c

Oil price

Five days is a long time in oil price terms and this Easter much has happened, causing wild fluctuations in the crude price. The Iran nuclear accord and the Saudi pricing schedules between them have meant at least for Brent, the swing was at one stage over five dollars in less than two working days. Cast your mind back to last Thursday when the Lausanne talks were on the brink of ending without agreement, a final push over the line and agreement from the Supreme Leader (Iranian, not American) meant that a framework deal was possible. Cutting a deal on centrifuges and redesigning the heavy-water reactor, in addition to regular, visible inspections by the IAEA has ensured that the parties have until June 30th to draft a comprehensive nuclear agreement. This is by no means the end of it all although it may be the beginning of the end, amongst those wishing to scupper the agreement include Bibi and of course the newly in majority, Republicans in the US Senate. Having said that the deal stands more than a 50% chance of success which is why the oil price tanked on thursday although Brent did actually bounce around a dollar off the bottom to end up down only $2.15.

There will be much speculation about how much oil and how quickly Iran will get back onto international markets and whilst that shouldn't be under-estimated it will take time. The June 5th Opec meeting probably comes a little too early but expect some fiery discussions about Tehran regaining market share. Realistically, the sanctions will not be lifted in one go thus ensuring that Iran can't just flood the market, although there is the small matter of around 30m barrels of stocks to distribute. Going from the current production of around 2.8m b/d to, say, 4m b/d will take some time but long term with modern kit and backed by majors experienced in-country it should not be dismissed. Having said that I suspect that the Oil Ministry are going to have to make life a bit easier for the companies, maybe giving a bit of equity this time.

With one mighty leap the oil price went from depression to happy days after Saudi Aramco announced that it was increasing its prices to Asian refiners for May liftings thus making people believe that…

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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (Gulf Keystone) is a holding company, which is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production. The Company operates in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. It operates through segments, including Kurdistan Region of Iraq and United Kingdom. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq segment consists of the Shaikan, Ber Bahr blocks and the Erbil office, which provides support to the operations in Kurdistan. The United Kingdom segment provides geological, geophysical, engineering and corporate services to the Company. It operates in the Shaikan oil field. The Shaikan block is situated over 85 kilometers northwest of Erbil, covering an area of over 280 square kilometers. more »

LSE Price
239p
Change
2.8%
Mkt Cap (£m)
532.8
P/E (fwd)
8.3
Yield (fwd)
4.4

Genel Energy Plc is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and production in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). The Company's segments include Kurdistan and Africa. The Company has interests in approximately two producing fields in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, Taq Taq and Tawke, with access to local and international markets. Its fields have an estimated gross proven and probable (2P) reserves of approximately 800 million barrels of oil, and gross proven, probable and possible reserves of approximately 1.2 billion barrels of oil. Its Taq Taq license area is located approximately 60 kilometers northeast of the Kirkuk oil field and the adjacent city of Kirkuk, over 85 kilometers southeast of the city of Erbil and over 120 kilometers northwest of the city of Sulaimaniah. The gross area of the Taq Taq license area is approximately 950 square kilometers. Its Bina Bawi field is located approximately 300 kilometers from Turkey. more »

LSE Price
201p
Change
2.9%
Mkt Cap (£m)
561.3
P/E (fwd)
5.0
Yield (fwd)
5.6




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About Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm has over 30 years' experience in the Oil & Gas sector and is a widely used media source. He often appears in print and on screen, and also writes an acclaimed daily blog read by much of the resources industry as well as investors both institutional and retail.Malcolm is a Founding Partner of HydroCarbon Capital, which provides independent advisory services to the Oil and Gas sector. He is a Director of the Maven Income and Growth VCT 4 PLC, a venture capital trust listed on the Premium segment of the main market of the London Stock Exchange.He started his career at Wood Mackenzie in 1979. He was an inaugural member of the No 1 Extel rated James Capel Oil & Gas team and also headed up corporate broking, acting for the Government in sales of British Gas, Britoil and other utilities. Subsequently he became Head of Equities and main board Director at Williams de Broe before moving to Teather & Greenwood. Following that, he ran his own consultancy for several years, acting for a number of quoted and private companies as well as being a board member and advisor. He has been a Director at Noble and then Westhouse Securities and has extensive contacts in the Oil & Gas sector globally. More recently Malcolm has been the lead advisor to an HSBC Zurich trust on oil, gas and energy investments as well as working with the oil team at VSA Capital.- See more at: http://www.malcysblog.com/about/#sthash.Jdn1d7dK.d... more »

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