Malcy's Oil Report - GKP, NTOG, REP

Thursday, Oct 15 2015 by
Malcys Oil Report  GKP NTOG REP

WTI $46.64 -2c, Brent $49.15 -9c, Diff $2.51 -7c, NG $2.52 +2c

Oil price

Another short blog today, very little news around but the 3Q’s are just around the corner particularly for the US oilfield service companies which will give us very important pointers as to the industry’s cost base.

The oil price arrested the fall but still ended up slightly weaker on the day ahead of the imminent Brent expiry. The market was short of news and the API inventory stats which came out late were not very helpful. A much bigger than forecast stock build of 9.4m barrels, expectations were 2.8m, but at Cushing the rise was only 1.4m barrels.

Gulf Keystone

Not sure whether the catch phrase should be that ‘every little helps’ but for GKP, today’s news that they have received their October payment from the MNR is surely good news. Clearly, compared to the huge amount owed and indeed their own debt pile, $12m is but a drop in the ocean but if it keeps them afloat then the light can be seen at the end of the tunnel. All the reports we are getting are showing excellent operational work on the ground and that Shaikan is performing very well, 50/- b/d on peak days might not have been expected not long ago. I expect Jón Ferrier to continue to do well and he is managing to spend a fair bit of time in Erbil as well as over here. Indeed I am led to believe that there will be more meeting with shareholders from institutional to the retail and even an interview on TipTV…For both GKP and Genel I detect that things are looking up and I am cautiously optimistic for both companies.

Nostra Terra

NTOG has completed its acquisition in Egypt with Independent Resources announced last week and it looks quite interesting albeit relatively modest. It ticks a few important boxes for the company such as giving cash flow, is non-dilutive thanks to the financing by the vendor and opens up a new area of interest for the company. I expect more in this part of the world now that the ‘Greater Med’ is officially an industry hot-spot.


Repsol is the latest major to go down the route of slashing costs to be able to maintain the divvi. With poor figures the company is upping its asset sales programme, cutting capex and eliminating costs in…

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Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (Gulf Keystone) is a holding company, which is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production. The Company operates in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. It operates through segments, including Kurdistan Region of Iraq and United Kingdom. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq segment consists of the Shaikan, Ber Bahr blocks and the Erbil office, which provides support to the operations in Kurdistan. The United Kingdom segment provides geological, geophysical, engineering and corporate services to the Company. It operates in the Shaikan oil field. The Shaikan block is situated over 85 kilometers northwest of Erbil, covering an area of over 280 square kilometers. more »

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Nostra Terra Oil and Gas Company plc is engaged in the exploitation of hydrocarbon resources in the United States midcontinent and Egypt. The Company's segments include US mid-continent and Head office. Its properties include US Mid-Continent properties and Egypt properties. In Texas, it holds a working interest in the Vintage Hills Prospect Unit, which is located within the Giddings Field, and a working interest in the Nesbitt Prospect Unit, which is located within the Woodlawn Field. In Colorado, it holds a working interest in the Verde Prospect Unit. In Oklahoma, it holds working interest in the Bale Creek Prospect Unit. It also holds interest (varied working interest) in the Chisholm Trail Project. In Wyoming, it holds working interest in the White Buffalo Prospect. In Egypt, it holds an interest in the East Ghazalat concession. The Company's subsidiaries include New Horizon Energy 1 LLC, Goldhawk Oil & Gas, LLC and Churchill Operating, LLC. more »

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Repsol, S.A. (Repsol) is an integrated energy company. The Company's segments include Upstream, Downstream, and Corporation and others. The Upstream segment carries out oil and natural gas exploration and production activities, and manages its project portfolio. The Downstream segment includes covers the supply and trading of crude oil and other products; oil refining and marketing of oil products, and the production and marketing of chemicals. It owns and operates five refineries in Spain (Cartagena, A Coruna, Bilbao, Puertollano and Tarragona) with a combined distillation capacity of approximately 900 thousand barrels of oil per day. The Company operates La Pampilla refinery in Peru, which has an installed capacity of approximately 120 thousand barrels of oil per day. Its Chemicals division produces and commercializes a range of products, and its activities range from basic petrochemicals to derivatives. more »

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  Is LON:GKP fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »

12 Comments on this Article show/hide all

rhomboid1 15th Oct '15 1 of 12


I've asked many times both here and on Twitter , can you or Stockopedia confirm whether you are paid by any of the companies you cover?

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Fangorn 15th Oct '15 2 of 12

For god sake - he's a blogger.

Does it really matter?

It's not as if he's giving investment advice, making stock recommendations. In fact he goes into less detail than Paul Scott! Who is also a blogger.

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rhomboid1 15th Oct '15 3 of 12

Hi Fangorn

Paul declares his position , Malcy doesn't , why the difference?

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Fangorn 15th Oct '15 4 of 12

Paul has a "relationship" with a fund manager - does he declare the fund manager's positions in the stocks he comments on?


Malcy is a blogger.

Nothing more.

Who cares if he is getting paid.It's not as if he goes into any detail vis the companies he comments on anyway,nor does he recommend a buy, or sell.

Looks to me as if you have a personal axe to grind tbh.

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rhomboid1 15th Oct '15 5 of 12

Hi Fangorn

I've no problem with Malcy , his blog is interesting and entertaining , what I do find is that he spends a disproportionate amount of time covering stocks that are beyond any sensible consideration ...IMHO , given he is an astute observer of the sector the only explanation that looks likely is that he is part of those companies PR activity.

All fine if it is declared but there is zero clarity

Stockopedia syndicate this content so should be able to confirm its unpaid nature ...or not.

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Fangorn 15th Oct '15 6 of 12

"what I do find is that he spends a disproportionate amount of time covering stocks that are beyond any sensible consideration"

What? Small to medium Oil Explo companies?

That's all he covers right? No surprise as he's an ex small to mid cap Oil Explo company analyst.

"IMHO , given he is an astute observer of the sector the only explanation that looks likely is that he is part of those companies PR activity."

He worked at VSA Capital - now for himself, covering the same segment of the market as before.

I think you're reading too much into it. Whether he is paid in some form or not.

Vis Stockpedia "syndicating" the content - why dont you ask Ed then? Get an answer from the horses mouth, rather than seemingly hounding a poster on the forums.

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rhomboid1 15th Oct '15 7 of 12

Hi Fangorn

I'm aware of his background but I'd like to view his comments in the right light, if he's paid by a company he's not likely to be unbiased is he?

I've contacted Stockopedia they said;

" I'll ask around but I don't think we know that either actually - we just think it's quite good, interesting content so we syndicate it (for free). It seems quite popular with subscribers. Anyway, I'll see if we can find out, but we'd likely just ask the same way you have. There's some detail on his background here - - as with everything one reads, it's important to DYOR."

So Stockopedia don't know either..

Why are you so touchy anyhow?

I'm amazed you don't think paid for coverage shou,d be tagged as such, why not!

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Fangorn 15th Oct '15 8 of 12

Given he covers so many small to mid cap Oilies it's highly unlikely he is paid by every single one!

I'm not touchy at all - you clearly are as this is your third attempt posing the same question on one of his syndicated articles!!!

Exhibit 1A "I've asked many times, both here an on twitter"   

rhomboid1 9:13pm (show/hide) 1 of 8

I personally don't see the issue. It's not as if he says Buy or Sell, nor could one argue that he is paid by ALL of the companies he comments on eg Commentary on Afren case in point! And he certainly covers plenty of small to mid cap Oil companies,many which are utter tosh.

"I'm amazed you don't think paid for coverage should be tagged as such, why not!"

Because I don't see his stuff as being "Research", merely a personal blog is why!!!!

Paul Scott's "Blog" is similar, except it
1) Goes into more detail
2) I gather he might be paid for it?
3) He comments on stocks he has positions in - multi sector

He doesnt, however, comment on how the Fund he is associated with, is positioned!

Are you not concerned about that? Why not? Worse discretion than Malcy's personal blog imv. But again, I dont care,one way or another, because it is a Personal Blog!

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rhomboid1 15th Oct '15 9 of 12

Hi Fangorn

"I'm not touchy - you clearly are as this is your third attempt posing the same question on one of his syndicated articles!"

That's because I've had no response , I'm not touchy just persistent.

As I understand it Paul declares his and where relevant the associated fund position.

If I read a brokers report I always bear in mind who the House broker is , With Malcy I've no clue and on this site his articles looks like editorial rather than opinion.

Why are you not in favour of more openness ?

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Fangorn 16th Oct '15 10 of 12

"If I read a brokers report I always bear in mind who the House broker is , With Malcy I've no clue and on this site his articles looks like editorial rather than opinion."

Because his is a simple blog, not a broker's report. It's absent of any financial analysis, or assessment of relative merits of company as an investment, and is merely a comment on the "news " of the day most days - it's never as detailed as PauL Scott's paid for research he does daily either.

"Why are you not in favour of more openness ?"

Because in this instance, as for other "Personal blogs" where the focus is on "news reporting" rather than an assessment of the investment merits of a company I don't think there is any need.

Have you tried tweeting him?

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rhomboid1 16th Oct '15 11 of 12

In reply to post #108375

Hi Fangorn , yup tweeted him a week ago and got no response .

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Fangorn 16th Oct '15 12 of 12

I'll ask him next time I see him out and about - those investor shows run by Winnifrith might be a good bet - he attends those I gather.

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 Are LON:GKP's fundamentals sound as an investment? Find out More »

About Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm has over 30 years' experience in the Oil & Gas sector and is a widely used media source. He often appears in print and on screen, and also writes an acclaimed daily blog read by much of the resources industry as well as investors both institutional and retail.Malcolm is a Founding Partner of HydroCarbon Capital, which provides independent advisory services to the Oil and Gas sector. He is a Director of the Maven Income and Growth VCT 4 PLC, a venture capital trust listed on the Premium segment of the main market of the London Stock Exchange.He started his career at Wood Mackenzie in 1979. He was an inaugural member of the No 1 Extel rated James Capel Oil & Gas team and also headed up corporate broking, acting for the Government in sales of British Gas, Britoil and other utilities. Subsequently he became Head of Equities and main board Director at Williams de Broe before moving to Teather & Greenwood. Following that, he ran his own consultancy for several years, acting for a number of quoted and private companies as well as being a board member and advisor. He has been a Director at Noble and then Westhouse Securities and has extensive contacts in the Oil & Gas sector globally. More recently Malcolm has been the lead advisor to an HSBC Zurich trust on oil, gas and energy investments as well as working with the oil team at VSA Capital.- See more at: more »


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