Malcy's Oil Report - NOP, SIA, AFR, THAL, WEIR

Wednesday, Jun 10 2015 by
Malcys Oil Report  NOP SIA AFR THAL WEIR

WTI $60.14 +$2.00, Brent $64.88 +$2.19, Diff $4.74 +19c, NG $2.85 +14c

Oil price

The rally in the oil price was impressive yesterday and continued overnight and in London this morning. Whilst there were a number of bullish factors at work such as the API stats (albeit they came after the US close) and the strong dollar it was also very much the case of believing what you want to as negative factors were brushed under the carpet.

So, the API inventory numbers were indeed positive with crude stocks falling by 6.7m barrels vs forecasts of less than 2m but in line with my comments yesterday where I expected a catch-up with last week’s EIA stats. Even more surprising, at least to the dim-witted aforementioned analysts, was the situation in gasoline where stocks fell another whopping 3.87m barrels versus their expectations of a rise…

The EIA are busy this week, yesterday I reported that they put US supply at 9.6m b/d and the rest of that report fed the bulls as they forecast falling US tight oil production of 93/- b/d in July making a possible cut of 209/- b/d on the quarter. In their STEO they actually dropped their price targets for this year and next due to non-Opec supply and the uncertainty of Iranian production. Elsewhere the Saudi Oil Ministry took the unusual step of justifying recent production numbers by saying that ‘the increase in the Kingdom’s production over the past three months is a result of market conditions, specifically increasing global demand and the needs of the KSA’s permanent clients, it is not designed to compensate for lower prices’.

Overall one must go with the market which has firmed again this morning by adding over a dollar to WTI and Brent. The bulls have the upper hand but the bears, who correctly point out that Opec is still, and will be for some time, producing so much that worldwide stocks are rising despite increased demand, will surely have their day in the sun before long. Finally the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in case you didn't know) have put out their prediction for the summer weather in the USA, a warmer time is predicted for the Shermans after a mild one last year and accordingly families will spend 4.8% more on electricity bills, mainly on air-conditioning.

Primeline Energy Holdings

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Cabot Energy Plc, formerly Northern Petroleum Plc, is an oil and gas exploration, and production company. The Company is engaged in the exploration, appraisal, development and production of oil and gas assets. Its geographical segments are Canada, Italy, French Guiana, the United Kingdom and others, including Australia. Its key assets are in Canada, an onshore oil production play, and in Italy, with both onshore and offshore permits, and applications covering exploration prospects and discovered oil fields. It owns mineral rights covering over 58,000 acres in north west Alberta, Canada. It in Italy owns over four offshore permits, an onshore permit and an area of exploration permit applications in the southern Adriatic. The Company in Australia holds interest of Petroleum Exploration License PEL629, which is located in the Otway Basin, covering an area of over 5,800 square meters. Its exploration program in French Guiana includes Zaedyus oil discovery and additional prospects. more »

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Thalassa Holdings Ltd is a holding company. The Company is focused on providing marine geophysical services, autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) research and development and homeland security and real estate services. Its directly owned subsidiaries in the energy services industry include GO Science Group Ltd (GO), which is an autonomous underwater vehicle research and development company with a subsidiary Autonomous Robotics Limited. more »

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About Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm Graham Wood

Malcolm has over 30 years' experience in the Oil & Gas sector and is a widely used media source. He often appears in print and on screen, and also writes an acclaimed daily blog read by much of the resources industry as well as investors both institutional and retail.Malcolm is a Founding Partner of HydroCarbon Capital, which provides independent advisory services to the Oil and Gas sector. He is a Director of the Maven Income and Growth VCT 4 PLC, a venture capital trust listed on the Premium segment of the main market of the London Stock Exchange.He started his career at Wood Mackenzie in 1979. He was an inaugural member of the No 1 Extel rated James Capel Oil & Gas team and also headed up corporate broking, acting for the Government in sales of British Gas, Britoil and other utilities. Subsequently he became Head of Equities and main board Director at Williams de Broe before moving to Teather & Greenwood. Following that, he ran his own consultancy for several years, acting for a number of quoted and private companies as well as being a board member and advisor. He has been a Director at Noble and then Westhouse Securities and has extensive contacts in the Oil & Gas sector globally. More recently Malcolm has been the lead advisor to an HSBC Zurich trust on oil, gas and energy investments as well as working with the oil team at VSA Capital.- See more at: more »


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