Malcy's Oil Report - PMO, RKH, FOGL, CHAR, SLE, AEX

WTI $59.43 -26c, Brent $66.27 -54c, Diff $6.84 -4c, NG $3.01 -1c

Oil price

Oil prices drifted yesterday as the dollar rallied, international growth appears sluggish despite lower oil prices and the Saudi’s exported more in March, 7.898m barrels the highest since 2005. Retail gasoline trades up again, it is now $2.74 a gallon which is up another 5.3 cents on the week and now less than a buck lower than this time last year, remember it’s Memorial Day weekend upcoming and that signals the start of the driving season.

Finally if you read the FT you couldn't have failed to spot the front page spread on ‘Big Oil’s retrenchment’ as Major’s are cutting back capex. Thank god they told me I would never have noticed otherwise… Actually they are all cheering down in Riyadh as what you can draw from all this is that is has not been US shale oil that blinked first as Opec had hoped but the oil majors which bodes very well for oil prices a little further out.

Premier / Rockhopper / FOGL

The partners in the Isobel deep well in the North Falklands Basin have announced that they have penetrated a sand interval with suspected elevated formation pressure and oil shows. Accordingly they have set a cement plug over the interval, run the contingent casing string in the shale section above before drilling the proposed Isobel reservoir to TD. Whilst the partners are correctly not fanning any flames here it must be at least encouraging what they have seen so far…

It's Rockhopper’s AGM day which means that they get to talk about the Med a bit, so far what I have seen is quietly optimistic, more after I have seen the presentation after the meeting. It also means that Sam’s tie gets its annual outing…

Chariot Oil & Gas

Chariot announced this morning that the AziLat farm-out in Brazil has been called off. Apparently AziLat requested amendments that were ‘unacceptable’ and Chariot were in no mood to blink. Chariot will pay the seismic costs themselves but having structured the deal in a canny way will not effect their capex this year. I remain positive on Chariot who have few commitments and some cash in the bank and whilst a couple more farm-outs wouldn't go amiss they are under little pressure with plenty of upside when the time comes.

San Leon 

Sometimes you have to get the markets to actually inhale the gas from a successful well before they believe that you have found some of the stuff so today’s report from Ryder Scott on the Polish discovery had at least saved investors that trauma. Rawicz-12 has got P2 recoverable gas of 5.03 BCF which will turn into P1 when the GSA or contract is signed which the company says is imminent. A 25% rise this morning probably doesn't do the company justice especially as domestic gas prices are still pretty high, as an annuity someone should buy the whole thing…

Sundry

The whispers I have been hearing about a potential bid for Far Ltd are turning into bellows as Conoco and other are apparently running the slide rule over the company. Well they might as has been said before here Far is a cheap and efficient way to play Cairn’s Senegal success which they evaluated at last week’s presentation. Worth reading this quote from Far CEO Cath Norman;

“It was the largest oil discovery in the world in 2014. So it is under the spotlight. It has been a lean few years for oil discoveries and any company that wants to increase their oil inventory couldn’t avoid looking at our project. That’s the reason I feel vulnerable,’’ Ms ­Norman told The Australian.

Watch this space…

Northern Petroleum has announced this morning that work is continuing on its two key wells in Canada. On 100/16-19 they expect 75-100 b/d by June and on 102/15-23 work is in progress and up to 150 b/d is expected by the 3rd quarter of this year. The company say that at current oil prices cash flow from both these wells ‘should cover most of the G&A costs’ and ‘effectively support the whole group. I would prefer ‘most’ to be ‘all’ but I suppose beggars can’t be choosers!

And Aminex have an update out which is positive, saying that first gas from Kiliwani is expected in mid 2015 which must mean it’s nearly ready and that together with Ntorya-1 will contain around 98 BCF gross or 70 net to the company. I was due to see Jay a couple of weeks ago but have been away, I will report back after that meeting which I hope I can remake soon.

And finally…

Last night the wheels slightly fell off for Chelski but The Chosen One quaintly blamed the other leading clubs for not putting enough pressure on his boys! Mr Fabregas got a red one for petulance and will miss the end of the season although it looks like the boys are in holiday mood already.

Over at the HubCap Stealers it seems that young Mr Sterling has told Mr Rodgers that he is off to pastures new and although his agent might just remind him of his contractual obligations they seem to count for not much nowadays. The words good and riddance come to mind…

I have had a couple of messages as to why I didn't mention Justin Gatlin’s record sprint in Doha at the weekend. Apparently he has not been welcome in Beijing and why anyone allows him still to race is anybody’s guess…

Also re Tuilagi, ’nuff said…