WTI $44.63 -$1.29, Brent $48.14 -75c, Diff $3.51 +55c, NG $2.69 +1c
Oil price
So much data to analyse and for the first time for a while the agencies are beginning to differ in their reading of the oil supply and demand situation. The EIA is markedly less optimistic than the IEA with regard to the balance, as the latter suggests that non-Opec supply will fall by a short 1/2m b/d and demand numbers are up by 1.7m b/d this year and 1.4m next. I know who I would normally believe out of those two and as longer term readers will know its not the IEA. The third agency reports today and it will be a surprise if Opec are far away from the EIA but let's wait and see.
The rig count continues to help, minus 16 at 848 overall on Friday and oil down 10 at 653 was 56% down y/y and there are enough rumblings about US production falling to at least bear that in mind. Worth another peek at the interview Rex Tillerson did with PIW recently and also that the autumn refinancing’s may not be so cosy as those in the spring…
It's all about the Fed this week and although the chance of a raise have fallen from 50% to 30% some are still saying get the rise out of the way the sooner the better. However, those of us without the enormous brain of an economist must be listening to the IMF and the World Bank saying that the world is teetering on the edge of another major setback and thinking that raising rates isn't the normal bedfellow of catastrophe, mind you if Johnny Sutton and Marcus Ashworth agree something must be amiss…..
If you watched BBC’s Countryfile last night you would have seen something very rare, no not a rural Corbyn but a relatively and refreshingly unbiased piece about fraccing. Half way through I was expecting a homage to the antis but we then got John Blaymires of IGas giving the other side which was quite refreshing and well done by him.
Shell / BG
Interviewed in the FT this morning albeit too briefly, BvB has stated not for the first time that the risks of the BG deal not completing are ‘exaggerated’ and that the two share prices had been ‘knocked about’ by market turbulence. On the dividend he maintained his commitment but also…
