WTI $59.47 +$1.14, Brent $63.59 +$1.58, Diff $4.12 +44c, NG $2.83 +3c
Oil price
I have been away for just over a week, during which what might be described as considerable trauma has occurred but the oil price is almost exactly as I left it, notwithstanding some humps in the road. Greece has defaulted which has strengthened the dollar and there is even more crude oil and product around than before, likely to be added to by Iranian crude in the next six months.
On that front the deadline was last night but has been extended until July the 7th, pictures of all the top teams assembling in Vienna lead me to think that red lines have been crossed and humble pie eaten particularly by the Supreme Leader. Inspections will need to be carried out and sanctions will not be withdrawn immediately but expect to see Iranian tankers starting their engines before long.
In the expectation of a bit of supply competition Opec has upped its game, in June depending on who you believe the cartel may have been pumping at 32.1m b/d, remember when I wrote after the June 5 meeting that they might as well not have kept to the 30m b/d target…..
The API stats last night foxed the analysts again, they were looking for a draw of 2m barrels when it turned out to be a build of roughly the same amount…..
Tullow Oil
I am doing the company stuff that I have missed piecemeal over the next day or two as otherwise there wouldn't be a blog today either…
Tullow has issued an update this morning which reads quite positively and should arrest the decline in the share price which has happened recently although I have noticed an unusual diversity in analysts views of late, I tend to feel that sub 350p it looks like good value to me despite my slight worries about the oil price.
With the West African producing portfolio performing strongly Tullow has upgraded guidance for 2015 from a range of 63-68/- b/d to 66-70/- b/d which is good news for the bottom line. As I found at a recent meeting with Kosmos things are looking up in the area and even TEN is within budget and still on line to produce first oil in mid 2016. Tullow had the appropriate moment of epiphany a few months ago and despite some setbacks with the drill bit I think…
