WTI $57.74 +$1.58, Brent $64.85 +$2.12, Diff $7.11 +54c, NG $2.53 -8c

Oil price

The week is ending strongly for the oil price as the conference week bulls speak more loudly or impressively than the bears. Actually, part of the rise was for geopolitical reasons, the cease fire in the Yemen announced on Tuesday was shattered well and truly yesterday with over 20 air strikes yesterday that have apparently continued overnight.

Also worth noting is that the FT picked up this morning on something that I have been mentioning for a few weeks, viz the massive increase in speculative money coming into the oil market. Figures show that net length in Brent has reached another record position and as long as we don't get a shake out that will likely remain, but the warning still stands and should there be a significant closing of these open contracts there will be blood on Wall Street…


It's probably a good thing that the tribunal looking into the sea borders between Ghana and the Cote d'Ivoire is going to hand down its judgement on a Saturday because markets will be closed and of course the weekend's press will have a chance to pass judgement. The Ten development has been very costly for Tullow and they could do without another two year delay if the ruling goes against them but word is they will keep on investing regardless, they don't have much choice I guess. Tullow shares have been very strong of late running up from 280p to the current 420p which indicates that the market are sanguine about the company's chances, I am still happy with Tullow down here but we may have a bumpy ride for a little while.

Sound Oil

Sound have confirmed that the second well on Nervesa spudded yesterday, drilling and logging will take about 30 days and then there will be 5 days of completion and clean up followed by another 5 days of testing. These figures are of course tentative but we should therefore know the results in around 40 days from now. The company are hosting visits for shareholders, analysts and the media during early May so I expect there to be not only significant interest in Nervesa  but the company overall as senior management will all be presenting.

Madagascar Oil

I have been waiting to write up MOIL for about a week ever since the company received…

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