3rd Apr '21 by Edmund Shing

7 comments 3068 reads

April Fool, or April Fantastic?

Summary:

This week’s Podcast: Is a new era in inflation just around the corner?
Real Estate: Focus on logistics, offices
Self-storage: a defensive growth real estate play
April: typically one of the best months for stock markets
Gold miners and palladium could be poised to move higher

Real Estate: Best rental and capital growth forecast in Logistics, certain Office markets

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Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

New Podcast: Is a new era in inflation just around the corner?

In today’s podcast, Edmund and Charlotte address the hot topic of inflation.

Is a New Era in Inflation Just Around the Corner?

Can inflation ever be a good thing?
Will the unprecedented creation of money and government reflation measures generate inflation?
What are BNP Paribas Wealth Management’s global inflation forecasts for 2021?
For investors concerned about rising inflation, what should they do?

European Real Estate: Focus on Logistics, Offices

According to BNP Paribas Real Estate, the best prospects in commercial real estate in Europe remain in the logistics and office markets over the next 2 years.

We should not be at all surprised by the continued growth of the logistics sector (warehouses), driven by structural growth in the online retail market that was turbocharged by lockdowns in 2020. The online share of total retail sales will only grow further in the years ahead, with much of Continental Europe currently still far behind in online retail penetration compared with the US, UK and China.

UK warehouse REITs have outperformed

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So perhaps the best growth opportunities in logistics lie outside the UK, in countries such as France, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy where online retail can grow even faster than in the UK in the near-term.

The office market is perhaps more controversial, as many investors believe that the work-from-home trend is here to stay and will severely impact office demand going forwards. In my view, I can agree that there will clearly be an impact from teleworking, but I think that the scale is somewhat exaggerated by conventional wisdom.

Property investors PGIM have an interesting view on the likely long-term scale of teleworking, comparing pre-COVID teleworking rates in a number of countries with the countries with the most developed work-from-home cultures, Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands.

In their view, the likely ceiling…

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rmoore91237633

3rd Apr '21

#SLP seems so undervalued in my opinion. It’s the lowest cost Pgm producer, it’s basket of metals is stronger than ever, rhodium and palladium are in structural deficit, has loads of cash on its balance sheet.. pe is about 4ish?!?

William K

4th Apr '21

Many thanks Edmund. As a long term holder of Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) I think this might be a good time to top up as it's pulled back to 113 from a 52WH of 135. Palladium certainly will be in demand for a few years, but will it be needed when the EV replaces petrol/diesel vehicles?

ambrosia

5th Apr '21

ARK just launched a space ETF.

As a space buff and a man who reads stephen hawking books for amusement, I had to have a look.

I must confess, I'm currently a few glasses into the bottle of whiskey I was given for easter, so it took awhile to figure out, but it turns out Cathy Woods has put companies like John Deere, Google, Netfix, her own 3d printing ETF etc into the ARKX space EFT, in fact most of the companies have little to do with space.

That however did not stop the ETF still taking $128million on openning.

Think I'll wait for the Space X IPO

6th Apr '21

Tractors on Mars? Maybe it should be renamed the ARKX Spaced Out ETF.

jonno

Regarding the resurgence of the office environment, I would suggest Cls Holdings (LON:CLI) as worthy of consideration. The company specialises in office accommodation in the UK, France and Germany. Its clients are largely Government agencies and multi-national corporations. It is prudently financed, pays a reasonable dividend, trades at a large discount to NAV and has good management who have significant holdings.

Not overly exciting, perhaps somewhat boring, but that is fine by me. I hold

letap73

Many thanks for your musings Edmund - they are always very thought provoking. Since you comment on macro themes and always give an indication of the investment vehicles you could invest in, I was wondering if either yourself or any any helpful posters could give an indication of how you could take advantage of such themes with a generic Vanguard fund ( I have a Vanguard SIPP)?

john2

7th Apr '21

Edmund, could I just point out that nitrous oxide is laughing gas, used by dentists as an anaesthetic and by teenagers for more nefarious purposes. The exhaust gases that catalytic converters aim to eliminate are nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide.

If cars emitted nitrous oxide, our most heavily polluted roads would be lined by laughing people.

Market Musings 03/04/21: April Fool, or April Fantastic?

April Fool, or April Fantastic?

New Podcast: Is a new era in inflation just around the corner?

Is a New Era in Inflation Just Around the Corner?

European Real Estate: Focus on Logistics, Offices

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Edmund Shing

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