Market Musings 040523:
How fast will economies cool after a decent Q1?
Strength of leading stock market indices masks underlying weakness in mid and small-cap stocks
Summary:
Strong US employment data printed this week, but leading indicators still say a US recession is coming - we just don’t know exactly when…
Much tighter bank lending standards in US, Europe point to sharp slowdown in credit demand (mortgages, company borrowing), in turn points to sharper economic slowdown ahead
Getting to the end of central bank interest rate hiking cycles in the US, Europe.
Wait until the end of May to sell stocks and buy bonds, say the statistics…
Contrarian investors should be excited by the falls in Energy, Mining stocks off the back of global recession fears hitting oil, industrial metals prices
Watch for potential breakdown in US dollar, breakout of gold price to new high
Stock idea for further research: Sigmaroc (SRC.L)
Monthly VOX Markets Youtube Video:
Macro Investing Masterclass with Paul Hill, Chris Watling
Find out in this video, where investors Chris Watling (CEO Longview Economics) and
Edmund Shing (CIO BNP Paribas Wealth Management) believe interest rates, inflation and equities are heading. Alongside highlighting which sectors and stocks look attractive.
Podcast:
Hunting for better risk-adjusted returns in credit arbitrage funds
In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, and Pascal Chrobocinski, Senior Alternatives Advisor, explain everything you need to know about long-short credit arbitrage funds.
- The context for credit markets
- Is now a good time to include good quality bonds in a portfolio?
- How exactly do funds execute a credit arbitrage strategy?
- The benefits of investing in a long-short credit arbitrage fund
What happened this week (in short)
US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raised benchmark interest rates: +0.25% to 5.25% in US, +0.25% to 3.25% in the eurozone. Hopefully the Fed is done raising rates. The ECB will likely raise rates at least 0.25% further to 3.5%.
US employment remains more robust than expected judging by Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls number, which points to ongoing job creation despite the rising tide of corporate redundancy announcements..
US…
