Market Musings 09/04/22:
Security is the New Watchword

Podcasts that might interest you:


  • Are we heading towards $200 for a barrel of oil?
  • Will higher oil prices lead to a global recession?
  • Are the IEA’s proposals to cut global oil demand feasible?
  • What about alternative energy sources?
  • How can investors play this space?

Also available in Apple Podcasts, Podcast Addict, Spotify podcast platforms
(search for “BNP Paribas Wealth”)

Weekly Summary:

  1. The New World: Forget the last 20 years!
  2. Lowflation is now a trend of the past
  3. All about energy, food, and raw materials security
  4. Technology security: Chip production, cybersecurity
  5. How to invest in this new strategic assets theme
  6. Idea; of the Week: APF Anglo-Pacific, commodity royalty company

1. The New World: Forget the last 20 years!

In a little over two years since the beginning of 2020, I would say that the world has changed structurally, firstly with the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, and now with the conflict in Ukraine.

These global shocks have triggered a shift in economic and political tectonic plates across the globe. The result is that new long-term structural trends have been set into motion, or at least given a huge boost.

What are these new long-term global trends that I speak of? I am thinking of the following trends (not an exhaustive list):

  1. A shift away from globalisation trends in manufacturing and production, back towards relocalisation and near-shoring of this economic activity, with a determination to reinforce the robustness of supply chains of goods and components in the face of current COVID-related supply chain disruptions.
  2. Renewed focus on energy security, in terms of electricity production from alternative energy sources, securing fossil fuel supplies and acceleration of investment in energy transition away from geopolitically-vulnerable and high carbon-emitting oil, gas and coal towards more geopolitically secure, low carbon sources of energy including renewables, biomass and nuclear. Linked to this is a renewed focus on energy efficiency, as it is far easier and more productive to reduce our energy usage than to find alternative ways to generate this energy.
  3. Focus on food and water security. The current lack of formerly bountiful grain- and seed-based food exports and also of potassium- and nitrogen-based fertilisers from Central and Eastern Europe has led to a surge in global food prices. This, together with elevated energy prices, increases political uncertainty given the essential nature of food and energy,…

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