Market Musings 150723
Key Charts to Watch
Back to a US Goldilocks scenario?
Summary:
US inflation: soon to be disinflation?
US bond yields (long-term interest rates): peaked, now falling
US dollar loses ground to Euro, sterling
US leading economic indicator continues to improve
Euro STOXX 50 index threatens to break out: Watch Euro Banks
US Q2 earnings season starts, led by US large Banks
Average US stock continues to rise
Property: German house prices in free fall
RBOT Robotics ETF marches higher
OUR INVESTMENT THEMES - JULY 2023 UPDATE
When consistent losers become winners
Ride the Cleantech investment wave
Scarcity and Security are the new watchwords
Podcast - What is greedflation and will it go away?
Some concrete examples of greedflation (companies and industries)
Why does this exist if competition is meant to prevent companies from charging supernormal profits?
Is it a temporary or lasting phenomenon?
What companies have seen strong earnings and stock price growth as a result of this deliberate price over volume strategy?
How are consumers reacting to these price hikes?
Key Charts to Watch
1. US inflation: Continues to trend lower, below 3%
Suggests that the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates very soon
2. US inflation expected to trend lower in coming months
Lower rent inflation, easing food prices and lower car prices should all help
Source: Discipline Funds
3. US short- and long-term interest rates ease lower as a result
Lower rent inflation, easing food prices and lower car prices should all help
Source: tradingview.com
4. Alternative real-time measures of US inflation are even lower…
According to Jeremy Schwartz at Wisdomtree, headline CPI is actually already much lower
Source: Wisdomtree
5. Currencies: US dollar weakens, Euro and pound sterling gain
Undermined by lower US inflation, prospective nbd to US rate hike cycle
Source: tradingview.com
6. US economic activity actually improving
ECRI US leading economic…
