Market Musings 221225: My Convictions For H1 2026

22nd Dec '25 by Edmund Shing

8 comments 2077 reads

Market Musings 221225: My Convictions for H1 2026

Weekly Podcast and Snapshot report: A year of uncertainties (click on title to listen/read)

2025 was a year of volatility filled with uncertainties and geopolitical risks. However, it has also been an unusual year in asset class terms, with all major asset classes registering positive annual returns.

On one hand, central banks have cut benchmark interest rates, with short-term interest rates falling. On the other hand, bond markets have been steady over 2025, led by corporate credit markets on the back of strong demand and positive fundamentals driving tightening credit spreads.

While the US dollar weakened 10% against other major currencies, the global stock markets recovered strongly since “Liberation Day” in April to register double-digit gains for the year across the board, led by Europe and emerging markets. Finally, commodities represented the star of the year with gold increasing more than 50%.

In conclusion, we see good reasons for 2025’s positive financial market momentum to persist into 2026 given an encouraging backdrop of buoyant liquidity, low interest rates and positive economic and earnings growth.

Equity Focus report - December 2025 (click on title to read)

1. Arrivederci, GINO! The most common type of portfolio among equity investors is the GINO-portfolio as their allocation is Global In Name Only. We feel it´s time to wave goodbye to GINO and start rebuilding a truly global portfolio

2.What (not) to buy in Europe – We reiterate our neutral call on Europe as it will be a European equity market of two speeds: We like locally focused companies benefitting from efforts to enhance European autonomy while we keep avoiding the pockets of the market with too much US (Dollar) exposure. European SMIDs look particularly cheap.

3.Southern Momentum – Fitting our overweight call on Emerging Markets, we discuss the positive political backdrop in Latin America and why Mexican Equities are attractive again

4.Upgrading India to Overweight- India has underperformed the rest of the world this year. We expect to see India to catch up next year. There are some signals of a turnaround in economic and earnings momentum which was shown by strong Q3 results. Valuations against EM peers have normalized, making it a compelling case given the strong fundamental backdrop.

5.Sectors - No changes : In both the US and…

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dickieh

22nd Dec '25

Good article. What about platinum miners? Which ones?

JSLDUK

Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) are a good bet

jamesalastair

There are only four worth looking at and one of those is a tad tricky to invest in as it is Russian (Norilsk Nickel). That leaves Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT, Sibanye Stillwater (NYQ:SBSW) and Ivanhoe Mines (TSE:IVN) who have recently opened their new Platreef in South Africa. Ivanhoe comes with significant jurisdictional risk due to their copper mines in the DRC, but Mr Friedland's experience in the DRC there will no doubt be useful in South Africa where AK47 gangsters control the electricity and sometimes the water supply. I own Valterra Platinum (LON:VALT) and Sibanye Stillwater (NYQ:SBSW).

I publish my full portfolio at Alastair Kendall | Substack

TS00

You could also consider WisdomTree EnTrnMtlsandRrErthMnrs UCITS ETF USDAcc (LON:RARE) if you want to diversify your risk from a single miner. This includes access to lithium and platinum miners.

Peter T

Thanks Edmund. I always look out for your musings and have benefited from following up on several of your ideas over the years.

On lithium — a slight correction on the price: I think you missed a zero. It fell to around 60,000 CNY/ton rather than 6,000 CNY/ton. Still a massive drop.

I hold iShares Lithium&Battery Producers UCITS ETF USD Ac (LON:LITM) and Global X Lithium and Battery Tech UCITS ETF USDAcc (LON:LITG) (the latter being the better performer). Both rallied strongly off the April–May lows, but they’ve flattened out over the past few weeks as the lithium market itself has paused. There may still be upside, but I’m currently more inclined to trim than add. I suppose a lot depends on whether the delayed 2026 supply pipeline restarts as prices rise, or whether those projects remain pushed out. One to watch.

Breakout Trader

23rd Dec '25

Thanks Edmund, always enjoy your articles and the insights they provide. Wishing you a merry Christmas and a healthy and prosperous 2026 to come.

snowdrop

24th Dec '25

CoreWeave (NSQ:CRWV) Edmund, I take it your view is no short. med or even long rebound on this one? I have read so many confusing views!

25th Dec '25

Hi Edmund — interesting call on upgrading India to overweight for 2026. I can see the logic, but after some quick research there are a few things nagging at me and I’d love your take.

• Have valuations really normalised or are they still at a premium to EM?

• INR has been sliding 4–6% a year — will that not be creating a drag on expected returns?

• Is it the case that FPIs are still net sellers — what’s the catalyst that brings foreign flows back?

• And timing‑wise, is this really the moment to overweight? I'm thinking India would be better put on the shopping list if and when there is a market crash.

Keen to hear how you’re thinking about these points (or, as I don't expect Edmund to have the spare time to respond does anyone else have any thoughts on this? If not I'll just keep India on the market crash shopping list)

Market Musings 221225: My Convictions for H1 2026